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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    fwiw… the days of the hits are PDIII MECS (long duration 10-12”) Mar 3-4 HECS (20-30 central VA, PSU fringed with 8”) March 25 SECS (end of run, at least 6-8”) how could a bad pattern produce that EPS Control run [emoji6]
  2. NorthArlington101
    If anything I’m a double agent pushing people over the edge. I’m still tracking the VDay storm. I’ll be tracking through May if we’re unlucky enough to get the chance
  3. NorthArlington101
    It’ll have shifted 200 miles south by then. You’ll wish you stayed Here’s the EPS median gif. Similar story. 06z was the biggest tick.
  4. NorthArlington101
    as @DDweatherman just showed it has continued to be the world’s slowest bleed south with the EPS mean. Looks about identical to the GEFS mean now.
  5. NorthArlington101
  6. NorthArlington101
    Panic is fine and great but in NYC and SNE? Where every model has them getting 6”+ right now? They seriously need to stop looking forward for a second and enjoy this week Maybe if I looked closer at their forecast I’d realize it’s a mirage but from the outside looking in they should prep their Jebwalk materials and then take everything after that as gravy
  7. NorthArlington101
    To the folks leading the good fight… I salute you. If things pan out well, us quitters won’t deserve what we get. If they don’t pan out… I legit worry we’re gonna lose like 5 good posters with how relentless the trolling may be. Good lord
  8. NorthArlington101
    What always gets my goat is that you need basically every model to agree it’ll snow for it to snow. Even down to 24 hours. But the second one model starts throwing warning signs about the long range it feels like it’s right. I understand it’s just because our hit rate is low but it’s demoralizing. That’s why I always track whatever we’ve got and why January was so awesome. Cause we clawed them back from the dead. Broke tradition
  9. NorthArlington101
    The long range looks could’ve been great and it all can fall apart and we’ll get shut out. Very valid. In my little poll I posted I voted for 0-2”. Vibes have been off. Delays that aren’t delays. Not enough digital snow. We’ll see
  10. NorthArlington101
    Some people just enjoy tracking… this is something to track. Outside shot at glory. Nobody thinks we’ve got one for sure lol
  11. NorthArlington101
    Would be nice to have every model on board but I can live with leaving the RGEM at range behind
  12. NorthArlington101
    It’s not too late for DC but I’m skeptical. PA/MD border is in the game. Maybe even down to Baltimore. I need something to track so I’ll stick with it til game time
  13. NorthArlington101
    3” probs
  14. NorthArlington101
    Verrrry slowly south.
  15. NorthArlington101
    EPS souther/slower
  16. NorthArlington101
    I wasn’t sure if it was gonna actually end up better for us but nice to see changes still. Probably worse for SNE/NYC which gives me some joy
  17. NorthArlington101
    It’s a pretty notable tick SE (or at least slower) at 78 from 18z to 12z
  18. NorthArlington101
    Wisdom of the crowd. Thats why my favorite model is the SREF - so many plumes!
  19. NorthArlington101
  20. NorthArlington101
    Maybe a difference between the SV and WB maps lol 18z 12z
  21. NorthArlington101
    It’s a real thing. Think it did OK with the last snowstorm - shifted the heavier chances of enhanced snowfall down our way maybe a hair quicker than some other guidance. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/efi2web_tp?area=Europe&base_time=202402081200&day=1&quantile=99
  22. NorthArlington101
    There was one winter where every time the MJO entered Phase 8 it snowed just like magic. Became my favorite indicator because of that and because it’s very easy to understand, lol
  23. NorthArlington101
    I mean if it just keeps doing that, we’re good [emoji6]
  24. NorthArlington101
    Median took a modest jump south. 1" mean still runs through D.C. Would be feeling OK on MD/PA border
  25. NorthArlington101
    It's the slighest southward tick of all time. But it did happen.
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