That slug of precip is really impressive and I’m not sure any model got it right. GFS is the wettest and it’s about to get wet so maybe there is something to it.
FV3 is very stubborn (probably too much so) about UHI. It always tries to snow hole DC. Good idea in practice, but often leads to funny maps. So to answer your question, I do think it tries to catch the microclimates.
HRRR keeps getting juicier with the two bands it wants to set up. Jackpot keeps shifting but it’s nice to see. Someone will get 1”+ rates tonight, though not sure it actually sticks so it may be hard to confirm.
HRRR might make you happier.
31-32 by the time the last band comes in to the metro. And the rates in the first band are decent when it is 33-34. Could overcome the grass.