NorthArlington101

It’s just casual analysis, tbh I don’t know what I’m talking about. I tried to word it carefully... we obviously want certain conditions to happen but I don’t think we’ve ever had a lock on it three months out. We don’t usually have a lock on it two weeks out. Smarter people then me can look at the super long range models and see good signs but IMO it’s not worth worrying about.

LR winter analysis is a slight step above astrology, IMO. You can definitely identify warning flags, but we are just so reliant on flukes during winter that it’s hardly worth grumbling about/taking anything too seriously. Love the thread and the work though.

Anyone feel an earthquake? I didn’t in Arlington, but my friends down in Charlottesville did. Looking on Twitter it looks like it was probably down in the Carolinas.

Tor possible tag on that Frederick storm. Looks nasty.

Flash Flood Emergency issued.

That whole area really is a mini-tornado Alley. Swear every storm that comes over the mountains rotated at least a little.

Wow, this is a loud one for 5:00am.

TOR possible tag. I’d warn that, IMO

this is one of the worst pity warnings in recent memory. Barely anything greater than 20mph winds north of a line from Montclair to Waldorf.

ant woofing

Super close strikes to my house. What a night.

wow.

Windier than yesterday IMBY. Wouldn’t have guessed from the radar presentation.

Have to see if these storms get any better organized as they push East. Stuff just south of Frederick looks decent

seems they are deferring the choice for next season and are simply going as the Washington Football Team this year. Washington FC would've been a lot more catchy but I guess that naming conviction is too "soccer" for American football.

Honestly? A lot of it is people within my age group (18-29) or younger -- plenty of Snapchat stories or Instagram posts with people in large groups drinking/partying/whatnot. Lots of my college friends are planning trips over the summer and are surprised when I turn them down. I'm super pleased with what I see as a whole in this area, but that said I'm still not leaving my house all that much. With the scientific consensus about the effectiveness of masks growing yet the pandemic not slowing down, there clearly have to be a decent chunk of offenders out there. My anecdotal observations line up with the spike in infections in younger people as well.

I agree that in principle everyone should have an option of going to school in-person or staying home. But so should the teachers, the custodians, the lunch staff, the administrators, the bus drivers, and every other person that makes a school function. And if half of them (or more) opt not to show up to work... then what? This whole thing sucks. But IMO, the next month before classes start is likely better spent trying to come up with policy solutions for families that need schools/childcare. Or everyone could just start to truly wear masks and we could contain this sooner.

The T&L on the backside is really impressive.

not even close IMBY but I realize this gonna be a banner storm for other parts of Arlington/DC. that's what I get for going outside and hyping up my neighbors

fringed

Little bit of rotation in the clouds. Neighbors seeing it too. Going to the basement for this one.

there has gotta be a sick shelfie waiting to be taken if your view was good enough

Pretty close to my place down in Charlottesville... hope the house is fine! Storms definitely have some juice in them today.

Maybe a hook? Lines up with a little bit of broad rotation. jk that lasted only one frame

fringed. enough to ruin my evening at the pool