radarman

Typically SD water is notably warmer than in LA.  61 seems unusually cool... will be no worse than Coast Guard beach tomorrow.

Edit- Coronado was 69 today, Torrey Pines 70

2 hours ago, scoob40 said:

Not nearly enough for Weatherwiz and Cyclone 68.

In this neck of the woods it's been absolutely the least impactful season in terms of wind I can recall in 20 years.  We were due for a dud.  Congrats to S CT, Cape Cod, and SEMA though.  You love to see it.  

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is legit high end EF2 at least 

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1692559356531798492?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

I'll take the under, but certainly impressive regardless

3 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I hear San Diego can barely handle 0.25” of rain. They look to get ten or more times that. It might be worth it to bail early.  I’m heading out there for the first time Wednesday. I hope all the flight cancellations are worked out by then. 

word to the wise... after it rains in SD you want to not swim in the ocean for a couple days.  Bacteria and pollutants really spike, but after about 48-72 hours or so it's back to normal.  Because of the heavy rains inland , including possible thunderstorms even after the TS passes, there could be a lag.  You might consider waiting til end of the week to hop in.     I'm heading out myself on Friday, but think we should mostly be good by then.   Maybe check out Balboa park and walk around Little Italy on Thursday instead of hitting the beach?

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

3km (as usual) is much less mundane but does have something rolling through. I'm starting to become more inclined to believing that the 3km is very good. IT usually is much less impressive which often verifies and when it does show something good...definitely keep a watch. 

We've been hugging it for years

Severe, winter, tropical... you name it we hug it. 

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will be the best  weekend of the year. Low dews warm sun warm west winds Sat Sunday 

perfect camping weather, and we camping

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

My hickory tree is loaded this year, good sign, next we wait for Jerry's fat squirrels.

Ours are too.  It's a good sign for more hickory saplings at any rate.

Strolling around in a business suit this evening, NW breeze, late summer sun.  Still green, for now.

29 minutes ago, tamarack said:

During Gov. Mills' 1sr term, I was asked to write an essay on the effect of CC on Public Lands' forest management, submitting it early in 2018.  As part of that task I looked at data, mostly already in hand, comparing 21st century numbers to those in the 2nd half of the 20th, for 4 parameters:  total snowfall, duration of snow cover, mornings zero or below (to freeze down winter roads) and days remaining 32 or colder (to keep them frozen).  This was done for 3 selected sites, CAR for northern Maine, Rangeley for the western mountains, and Farmington for low elevations in the colder half of the state, where 90%+ of the Public Lands forest is located.  Results:
21st century has -
Total snowfall:  +6%   (Current long term averages are CAR 116", Rangeley 117", Farmington 89")
Duration of cover:  3-6% shorter for CAR/Farm, 5% longer at Rangeley
Days remaining 32 or colder:  3% lower
Minima zero or colder:  21% lower, less for Rangeley, more for Farmington.

Only 3 sites but geographically diverse and with very few missed days.
(The longest of the 3, Farmington, ceased reporting last October.  It had records beginning 1/1/1893 with less than 0.5% missing and only one lost day in the most recent 108 years.  Sad.)

Awesome stuff.  Seems like it's within the margin of error or close.

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Plus you could probably subtract 2 degrees from that ORH number

Its been cool so far

All the coops in the Pioneer valley are between -3.5 and -4.5.  Ashburnham coop is also -3.5.

9 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I see folks have already confirmed this is tornado debris.

But for those who want to learn you have to use CC in conjunction with other radar variables to confirm. You'll want to pair this CC up with differential reflectivity (ZDR), reflectivity (Z), and velocity (V or SRV). So the drop in CC must be collocated with sufficient Z (> 20 dBZ would be ideal if not higher), a V couplet, and near 0 ZDR (debris tumbles like hail and looks neither tall or wide to the radar). 

Now one caveat is that Z and CC are sampled by the radar first, and then V. So it is possible that the couplet may be displaced slightly ahead of the TDS because of storm motion (especially in fast moving storms), but it shouldn't be far away.

A commonly misidentified TDS is in the inflow region of supercells. Dust, bugs, etc. are all very low in CC too, so a quick check of Z will show that dBZs aren't high enough to be a true TDS. 

Great post.  Depending on the azimuthal sampling volume, a function of the distance from the radar, you might well be averaging in potentially high ZDR oblate raindrops along with the debris.  So you would expect a ZDR drop relative to the surrounding regions of the thunderstorm, especially the FFD but maybe also within the RFD, but maybe not getting near zero.  Even legit hail cores in the northeast I think are pretty often contaminated by rain and ZDR stays higher compared with hail storms you might see on the high plains or something.   Probably if you had a high LCL tornado classically formed on the tail end of an RFD and away from the rain shield you would indeed see ZDRs of 0 however so the theory is correct.

46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The Illinois landphoon reforming headed to VT?

Sweet structure on that thing.  Amazing how they retain it right til their dying breath.  Reminds me of 2012.

Helluva way to run an Augdewst

Just did a sampling the PWS sites around BDL and they're all in that 51-52 degree range, so I guess there really was some local difference between there and further north and not a sensing thing.

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm not aware of any. They did have numerous 3kt obs overnight so maybe it was slightly more mixed? 3kt isn't a hell of a lot though...especially at an airport. Sometimes that's just drainage flow too. CEF did have dews in the low 40s while BDL was upper 40s. I'm not sure how "real" that is or if it even mattered, but maybe that's an explanation. Aside from that, I haven't followed BDL and CEF enough to really get a feel for the rad cooling trends between the two. I guess it's something to keep an eye on in the coming months.

What would you have expected at BDL given the 47.5F at CEF?

Thanks.  I dunno what I would have expected, but I note 47 at KLEB, 47 at KORE, 47 at KCEF, and then 52 at KBDL.  CEF and BDL are 18 miles apart.  Could be that random N @5kt wind I suppose.  Or a sensor difference.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

A lot of those stations have short periods of record, missing years, or are threaded with COOP data from a previous site. I don't think there were any records for the long term climo sites.

Are you aware of any known biases of ASOS temperature gauges relative to AWOS gauges in radiating conditions?  It seems odd to me that BDL would be 5 degrees warmer than CEF when the temperatures were otherwise so uniform (based on the AWOS/PWS data) around interior New England, and BDL really should not be a UHI.

47 here too.  I think CEF set a record low with 48, albeit not a climo site.  BDL somehow didn't get below 53.

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Couldn't you put some insecticide in the shop vac so they die when they land in it?

Soapy water in the shop vac works also

Just now, SJonesWX said:

then what? What do you do with a shop vac full of murder bees?

empty their carcasses into the garbage I guess

Run an extension cord and use a shop vac on the ground bees .  Thump on the ground to get em to all come out.  No need to pour a bunch of chemicals on the lawn.... oh wait

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Friday was the pentacle of this summer so far. Steady 15 mph west wind with 4 to 6 foot swells. Water was 72 crystal clear. Beached from 9 to 5. Only issue was the massive search offshore for the missing teen. They still haven't found him. My suspicion is he is halfway to Block Island , super super rip Thursday headed straight that way. That sucks. Hate to see it. Today is another winner.

Friday and Saturday had great rideable surf at the cape with afternoon low tides.  Low/mid 60s water temps.  Both Coast Guard Beach and Marconi have sandbars well offshore.  Have to swim across a 40-50 yard gut entirely over your head with waves reforming a bit to get out to it, but then knee deep and perfect once you get there.  Tons of people including many small kids were game for it, but I was thinking it'd be interesting if there were a shark sighting. 

Nice to the see the EPS last night keep that -EPO ridge and weak -NAO to help suppress heights a little longer into August

47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I mean cmon I was swimming yesterday it was 78⁰ in full sun. The Sally class grows by the day. Yes Mr Reaves you are 100% correct.

Most of the National Seashore beaches had red flags up yesterday, with good sized but low period blown out storm surf on light easterly flow.   Race point however was yellow flag and we were getting strong 5 footers breaking and washing up the beach nicely.  Not true body surfing, but not a crashing beach break either.  They were sending folks flying along the sand with a little exfoliation to boot.  Anyway it was low 70s and clear, water mid to upper 60s that far north.  Felt great. 

Interesting that machine learning
convective probs are highest across the Mid Atlantic into NJ.
Thus lots of moving parts here yielding a below average
convective forecast

Anyone have a link for this model?

Saw what I think was a line of  Space X satellites overhead on cape cod about a half hour.  Just wild.

Best heavy downpour we've had in at least 2 days