radarman

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That's gotta be one of the more extreme examples we see around these parts.  Higher summits blasting off in warmth while mid-slopes and SFC freeze?  That's like 50F at 875mb.

summit chair laps on Mt Ellen

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
VALID 021822Z - 022015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR ALL HAZARDS MAY DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX, INTO
SOUTHERN OK. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO COVER THE
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY SHOWED
A WELL-DEVELOPED, COMPACT VORT MAX TRANSITING ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND
EASTERN NM. AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX, RAPID LOW-LEVEL SURFACE MOISTURE
RETURN WAS EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TX WITH DEWPOINTS
SURGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S TO MID 60S F OVER THE LAST 1-2
HOURS. WITH RAPID MOISTENING AND PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS ONGOING,
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION (1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE) IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8.5-9 C/KM)
FROM THE 12Z RAOBS WILL SUPPORT RAPID AND ROBUST UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT, POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS 19-20Z. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX ( 45-60 KT 0-6KM SHEAR) WILL ALLOW FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH A PREDOMINATELY SUPERCELLULAR MODE.

A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF NEAR SIMULTANEOUS INITIATION POSSIBLE. CELLS
MAY INITIATE WITHIN THE MODIFYING WARM SECTOR NEAR AND TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE DRYLINE IN WEST-CENTRAL TX WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS IT MIXES EASTWARD. HODOGRAPHS, WHILE CURVED IN THE
LOWEST 1-2 KM, ARE EXTENDED AND MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE ALOFT. THIS,
ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND LAPSE RATES STRONGLY SUGGESTS
LARGE AND WIND-DRIVEN DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS. A TORNADO RISK (SOME SIGNIFICANT) MAY ALSO EVOLVE
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE CELLS AND 0-1KM SRH OF 150-200
M2/S2. A LOCALLY GREATER TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO EVOLVE FARTHER EAST
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITHIN A RAPIDLY
MODIFYING AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT, A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

..LYONS/HART.. 04/02/2023

latest HRRR is eye opening... 3km nam not quite as bullish.  Really the only question mark is the strength of the LLJ.

April 2nd is a notorious day for severe weather in Dallas.

Cell really intensified fast.  Lapse rates ftw.  Tons of lightning

Hail here

Edit- dimes

Thunder here

Looks like crapvection

Went from 60s sun and blue skies at Berkshire east to low 50s and gloomy fog in Greenfield ftl

Pentathalon crowd at Berkshire East today being rewarded with a well deserved gorgeous afternoon.

Pond skating A- (two high end stretches with multi year return periods)

Local skiing B+ (very good early and late with an extended period of suck)

Snow in the back yard, D (3rd lowest seasonal total of the last 20 years, several counterfeit front end snows immediately wiped out, and multiple painful just misses)

Pleasantness, D-.  (some garbage winters have a lot of nice days, like 11-12 for example.  22-23?  Yeah no)

Does the sun come out after this batch of rain pushes through?

16 minutes ago, canderson said:

Those storms near Mesquite exploded - and that's not anywhere close to the atmosphere that's primed for supercells. Yikes. 

NBC 5 has a fairly nice S Band radar SE of Dallas that can be viewed here:

https://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/  (zoom in on radar on the right side of the page and it switches to their high res S band)

SVR watch issued for a nearby storm, entering the Tornado Watch area

speaking of... 90/90 tornado probs in the PDS watch... that's 4/27/11

Minor deal compared to elsewhere but a few decently strong storms fired on the east side of DFW with hail and strong winds, if sub-severe.  Areas of NE Texas might catch a few severe cells later on with the better atmosphere.

edit-  Tornado watch just issued for the far eastern metroplex and areas further east

This was the first double high risk area since 4/14/12

A lot of tornadoes that day, but I vaguely recall folks considering it a minor bust.  I chased the tail end of the dryline in SW  which was always very low probability of producing, and sure enough it didn't produce.  But I was out there anyway so NBD.

52 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

How does this potential today compare/not compare to say 2011 in terms of possible severity?

Given that 4/27/2011 was a top 3 day or something, it's just about impossible to expect that kind of an outbreak in advance.  Let's hope it doesn't amount to that at any rate.

5/24/2011 was another huge day (see my avatar) and this could be up there with that one, although a much different set up obviously.

19 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

The new moderate risk area for today is insane. Can’t recall anything that extensive 

that's a helluva hatched area... for all 3 hazards

This video is freaking intense

https://komonews.com/amp/news/local/video-snowboarder-rescued-back-country-mount-baker-ski-area-bellingham-washington-state-snowboarding-skiing-safety-gopro-outdoor-sports

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol…what is funny and ironic is that it wasn’t long ago that the mantra was they’d never recover…it was gonna become a dust bowl/drought region.  Funny how it all seems to balance out after all…

Unclear if the extreme reversals are the norm or something other than the norm but at least it's balance to an extent. 

This happened in North Texas as well... long term drought almost totally reversed in spring of 2015.  Reservoirs went from way down to filled up.  And by and large the drought has not returned there in any serious fashion thereafter.  Hopefully the same can be said about Cali in the years to come, though we wouldn't mind them sharing the wealth sometimes.

Some variation but largely reservoirs are in good shape.  

Also, just anecdotally I took this flying into Sacramento a week and a half ago.  Moist.  

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kind of like 02-03. Frustrating season until 2/7/03 and then off to the races.

XMas '02 was a biggie for many to the west.  Logan in NY killed it especially.  I recall it absolutely pounding snow driving south down 128 sometime that evening.  Total whiteout and a scary scene.  But some point near the going east/going west clusterf*** it flipped and then poured rain once on the SE expressway all the way down rt 3.  Don't recall what areas between 128 and 495 ended up with.  It was paste so probably bad ratios.  But a nice storm either way.  Big HP in place IIRC.

16 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

Great last lift service day for us at Beast today!  Snow was perfect and the woods were still skiable.  Latest I’ve skied trees there in a long time. 

Yep, today was the day.  Skied wonderfully and the weather was ideal.

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

I just got the “don’t bother fixing these” at the repair shop so it’s time..demo’d stockli storm rider 88s and liked them..head kore were good too…currently in volkls and want something different…thoughts??!

like the rip sticks too. Glade and steeps skier.

if you want an 'all mountain' ski with a lean toward softer snow, the Salomon QST series is worth checking out

5 years in a row BN here with 4 of those coming in at less than 75% of normal.   

RIP Betsy Pratt