radarman

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Nah Wolfie and I are both on the wrong side. He's just hungry as a Wolf for a GFS win.

well, unless we pull a 0-1" here the Nam/Euro combo was a total bust 36-24 hrs ago.   But we could still pull a 0-1" I guess.  Those who know me know I typically hug the nam, except when it doesn't give me snow obv.

notice how the split in opinion seems to be function of latitude and longitude and which side of the r/s line you're on

34 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I fly out tomorrow morning for Telluride

sweet, have a blast

24 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

What a snow hole that place and Littleton NH is. Glad we don’t live there. 

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. It’s amazing how often they’ll actually have bare ground while places way south of them have deep pack. They do get damned cold though when they radiate up there in those valleys. 

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

They are.  The worst part of it is nearby is a solid meteorology program (Jim Cantore type alumni and some board members) and those weather weenies are forced to study in a place that can be tough for snow at times.  It is a cold climate though, just suffers during the big east wind events.  

Pond hockey country

10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Despite lackluster radar,  the persistence of the steady light snow has been impressive the past hour.  My wife says another .25” at home.  Maybe I will hit 4” after all.

Yeah, all low level stuff not being captured.  Beam heights are 5k'.   Snowing decently here also.

Berkshire East skied very well, somehow light and dense at the same time. The mountain is wide open now, if we can just avoid r*** on Friday, we'll be in good shape heading into March.

Almost 4"

2.25" fluff

https://control.videolinq.com/public/eLmGC3P9

heck of a band... all the way down to Narragansett Beach

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually looks like a nice weenie band near @radarman’s hood down into windham county CT

Extends all the way back through the N Berks into SW VT and to the Hudson valley north of ALB.  Pretty solid flakeage right now.  With the glacial inch or so left over from Weds night, and measurable on top, it looks like full on winter at least.

16 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Hope everyone enjoys their flurries on the NAM. 

16 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

More snow tomorrow than 2/28?

this is in play

c-2" with virga in the valley?  That implied dry air bleed from the NE is fugly

Lots of power and internet disturbances here.  The UPS helps but the wired internet is down locally.  Work from home FTL.

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/winter/boxpns_dec23.txt

Some nice totals in that one

That's a weird PNS out here in western MA.  Crushed in Amherst, but meh on the east slope, as well as to the south across Hampden county.   Maybe a bit similar to 12/1/19 where a relatively narrow band trained west to east over this area in round 2?

...Franklin County...
Shelburne      1045 AM          6.0
...Hampden County...
Agawam         1215 PM          8.0
Westfield      1200 PM          7.0
Monson          150 PM          6.5
Springfield    1050 AM          5.5
...Hampshire County...
Amherst         345 PM         16.0
North Hatfield 1215 PM          8.5
Worthington     910 AM          6.5

1.5"

Once upon a time I'd be liking Btown's chances for a setup like tonight

1 hour ago, FLX_Transplant said:

Recommendations for a 7 year old who’s bored with Quechee but has never been anywhere else? Cognizant that this week is likely to be a zoo everywhere. 

Saskadena?  Or maybe Whaleback?

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

Some of the biggest assholes I've ever encountered were Bruins fans in Montreal.  Made me embarrassed to be from the same country.

not just the fans but the team too.  Like that time Chara committed assault on the ice and should have been immediately arrested.

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Anyone have any reviews on Montréal? My brother and his fiancé want a jack and Jill type bachelor/bachelorette thing and they said they’ve Lways wanted to go there.

 

Worth it? Would be in august.

if the answer to question one is yes, my next question is, will I need to back of the brinks truck to pay for it?

Exchange rate is in your favor so that helps

And yeah, it's pretty awesome.  Having spent a little time there working with McGill years ago (07/08 winter, luckily enough) a few things I'd recommend would be a walk and maybe dinner in the old city (le vieux Montreal), montreal syle bagels (st viateur is a good one), and a trip to Notre Dame basilica.

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hey, chin up, you’ve always got the edge of seat, nailbiting joys of tracking severe in the spring!

TCU and a 40 mph gust would be the severe equivalent of our best snowfall of the season, which was 2 mos ago by now.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

20 days. 
You put a ?… I was just answering your question OK there’s no condescension - if you know the information you know the information but it didn’t look like you did because the example you labeled is not a propagating SSW - which was my only  point. 
 

No argumentative tone... honest question here... what is the basis for this 20 day rule for propagation down to the troposphere?   When I go back through past events I don't see it.  There may be examples of such, particularly 2003 which was used as a paradigm in a lot of the original literature, but over time it's my opinion that 03 has been proven to be largely a one off, and has not representative of a standard behavioral model.  There's plenty of other examples of the propagation downward occurring on shorter, even much shorter timescales too.  Or not propagating downward at all.  

I don't think there is anything inherent in a SSW that determines if it will propagate downward and eventually weaken the PV, just that other signals are dominant and ultimately determine the fate of it.  Also my opinion that the +GPH anomaly over the pole that drove down the record airmass may well have been associated with the U wind reversal that occurred in late jan, at 10 or so day lag.  Or maybe it's just coincidence.  Funny we didn't hear anything from the experts about an impending SSW (that did actually occur) when the wave2 and wave 3 signals spiked in mid Jan, now they're crowing for some unknown reason... hopefully the models are indeed onto something that I don't understand if that's the basis for the excitement.

At any rate these guys aren't calling for a -AO in the next two weeks, they're calling for a new SSW if I read the tweets correctly, and the forcing for such isn't obvious to me.  If others have insight on that part of it, I'd welcome it certainly.

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You need to read the post I put in above - particularly the bold statement.  

SSW doesn't mean anything to the mid latitudes of the planet if that is not happening.  The AO can be negative with or without the SSW factor constructively interfering ... but the correlation between SSW is 3 weeks, then a -AO ensues as the PV stabilizes.

Dude the delayed propagation downward is ssw 101.  Enough with the condescension please.  And the 3 weeks delay isn't accurate.  It's shorter than that, and even then only a rule of thumb.  One could argue that the strong HP right over the pole that caused the recent PV displacement was the direct result.  And it shows up in the zonally averaged Z Anom GPH graph I posted even though it was  not a big portion of the total >65N space.  We understand and appreciate that you're into this stuff but turns out you're not the only one.

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

Really we just had one... Maybe it gets some credit for the cold shot, but the overall pattern seems to have shrugged it off... I guess you keep playing the odds and hope it works out?

And frankly, I'm not really sure what they're seeing that makes them bullish about another one upcoming.  Wave 2 is dead.  Wave 3 is meh.

 

As an aside, those graphs show pretty nicely the wave 2 and wave 3 action preceding this last one

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we're going to go on Twitter to get our ideas, might as well get them from someone who researches this stuff. Lee doesn't honk either, so it's striking seeing him use this kind of verbiage. SSWs are kind of all or nothing when they're that strong, but I'm fine with going for broke at this point

 

Really we just had one... Maybe it gets some credit for the cold shot, but the overall pattern seems to have shrugged it off... I guess you keep playing the odds and hope it works out?

And frankly, I'm not really sure what they're seeing that makes them bullish about another one upcoming.  Wave 2 is dead.  Wave 3 is meh.

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We were out on ice yesterday.....a lot of it was good clear black ice that went down a solid 3-4" so I had no qualms about my boys being on the ice with me. Lot of people playing hockey too.

All a dream in a couple more days. This winter may rival 2001-2002 as the least amount of pond ice I've seen during the winter.

Nice job taking advantage of the oppy.  One thing I will say is that we've had two periods of good black ice, the first being in the higher elevations right after Christmas.  That is no guarantee in any year.  All it takes is one snow or mix event in the early formative stages of the pack and you're screwed.  Granted, white ice is skateable and we'd certainly take it, but there is really nothing like smooth black ice.

Anyway this was from yesterday.  Not terrible.