radarman

cannot confirm but there was a lot of rotation in the meso and a substantial lowering

TOR #2 now

not enough yikes glad you are ok

the first of the two cells that came along rt 202 was quite impressive and the SVR that was put on it was very much warranted from what I observed. The TOR warned cell was rain wrapped but really quite calm by comparison as it passed by.

tornado warning for Conway incoming toward Amherst

Large wedge reported earlier in Cass Co, NE. Hail LSRs to 2.75" and measured wind gusts to 88 in adjacent IA.

Substantial amount of instability building in SE Nebraska... HRRR goes wild. SPC saying tornado watch coming shortly, even if wind may be the primary threat.

same here, looks like this one. Have spent a few hours replacing parts on it this year and it's pretty satisfying to see it running again. Simple machine really.

What a beastly little storm.

WaPo published this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/02/did-4645-people-die-in-hurricane-maria-nope/ They gave a lot more credence to the other 5 studies that estimated the death toll at ~1000. Certainly horrific enough as it is.

thunderstorm complex held together better than expected this morning and dropped a fair amount of precip across the metroplex, particularly east of Dallas (Garland/Mesquite) where they're pushing 2-3". Parts of Ft Worth did ok too, and along the I35E corridor.

huge 4.25" hail in Comanche county, reflectivity levels nearly off the charts, and a TBSS. Big time instability today.

storm complex held together and strengthened as it pushed through the east side of Dallas producing fairly strong/marginally severe gusts and lots of small hail.

Mesoscale Discussion 0516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018 Areas affected...North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251621Z - 251845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts are possible as storms move south across the area today, but severe weather is not expected. DISCUSSION...A complex of storms with southward-surging outflow is currently crossing the Red River into TX. These storms are not severe as of 16Z, but have produced 30-40 mph wind gusts. Some increase in intensity is possible this afternoon. The 12Z FWD sounding shows around 3000 J/kg MUCAPE when modified for current surface conditions. Although shear profiles are weak, storms are expected to forward-propagate and maintain and/or increase slightly. An isolated severe wind gust cannot be ruled out, but severe coverage is not expected to warrant a watch at this time. In addition to wind, marginal hail is possible as well given cool temperatures aloft and substantial instability. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/25/2018

DFW sounding showed some pretty good lapse rates this morning and 3km nam really ramps up the surface instability later on. Windfields are a bit of a mess, though strong aloft. The storm complex in OK is through Ardmore at present and hasn't weakened too much just yet... If it can keep pushing past the Red River I think there's a decent shot SPC ups the metroplex to slight risk later on. Forcing is pretty weak without that OFB...

Well the caterpillar invasion is on and it's raining in the woods again. I fear our oaks and ironwoods, already looking sickly, cannot withstand year 3 of complete defoliation. This may be the coup de grace.

Maybe some elevated convection for Long Island/ part of the south coast late Tuesday night/ early Weds morning as MLCAPE ramps up. Too bad we couldn't muster any instability tomorrow during the day.

very solid CTG if little else up this way.

They went with a tornado watch

A SVR was just dropped on the cell headed toward Columbia County. That narrow corridor extending to the WSW has been blossoming... CI must have partially eroded through there at least.

If you're looking for damage, cheer for 3/1/17 not 7/15/10

wow @ those wind probs suns out here at UMass, plenty of time to destabilize

Will have to see if a rain cooled outflow boundary might kick out of the ongoing convection as it skirts probably just north of here.

keeper maybe

5/8/09 there was a tornado in Sunderland that picked up a tobacco barn and deposited it across the road. It was embedded in a heavy rain event... definitely not your classic severe set up. Much like 2/25/17 these type of events don't really count per the question that was asked... As far as moderate to strong instability events this early I can't remember too many.