USCG RS

Meteorology and seismology share some common ground, yet they represent distinct scientific disciplines. I suspect producers may assume all scientists are interchangeable, but in reality, understanding seismology requires independent study. While an atmospheric scientist might manage to gather basic knowledge through quick research, a deeper understanding typically necessitates dedicated study.

I went through a 6.6M earthquake in San Luis Obispo in 2003. I still tense up when trucks pass by at times.

Ah shucks, now I miss my childhood and parents

I hated 97/98. Absolute horrific winter.

Thank you for all of this valuable information. It is greatly appreciated and something I will no doubt study more in depth to add to my repertoire. @wdrag I hope your grandchild is feeling better. Also, you mentioned something about a conference call?

@SnowGoose69 @brooklynwx99 @wdrag @forkyfork @SBUWX23 or any other met, or someone with knowledge, who would like to chime in. It appears that these types of bands are impossible to predict, even right up to game time. That's also what I've always seen said That withstanding, is there anything that can point to where a band like this may set up - geographically prior to now casting? Or are we just not technologically advanced enough to see and predict where these will set up?

@SBUWX23 Man that weenie band missed long Island by the skin of its teeth.

On my bucket list... It's a blizzard warning for July 4. Will we ever get it.. Who knows. But something I've always wanted to see.

Are your service drops (power lines to the house) always that low? Or is it just the snows weight?

Yeah, I could definitely see that. SWFE can sometimes favor southern areas. That withstanding - given trends- I would say most of LI should be in for a good period of accumulating snow. I would not be surprised to see 4-7 in places.

I agree with what you are saying regarding 38F in February being not great. That withstanding, this is a different situation. The Physics of the atmosphere changes everything. 38F in dry cold air with a system overrunning (SWFE) is a pretty good place to be in February. Now, if we were developing a coastal with initially Easterly winds prior to a backside, then I would 100% be agreeing that NYC was in trouble. Different system and physics here though.

I think LI is another good spot here.

I miss blocking.

I agree. Between the snow cover in the area and the Wet bulb temps, I do not see much of an issue regarding accumulation. Now, NYC Roadways, of course are a different story absent moderate rates, but this is normal.

Day 10, so I really don't want to say it, but I like the zero from a macro scale perspective. Granted it may be our last chance

@SnowGoose69 I feel like you would know this (for some reason): Why does CPK always measure so low?

Wife and I went to Greenville, SC. Trust me, it ain't just Long Island. Or perhaps if everywhere I go there is a douchebag and I am there... Nah.

Streaking with @MJO812 ?

Which is honestly what my forecast is for the area and what I have been seeing for a day or two now. This is why I am concerned about area roadways.

Well, flurries tomorrow it is. If ya know, ya know. Maybe this Sub Forum needs to pay for him to go on vacation in February more often... Unfortunately, without the rates, LI is in a very different spot. All depends on how quickly this deepens. Lack of blocking may be our detractor here after all, but, eh. February 2013 was a thread the needle and wound up phasing exactly where needed. Lets see. Edit - I still think NYC and LI get a hard hit. Dynamics all point towards this scenario.

I would agree with this. The key -IMO- is the phase. If it is cleaner and the storm explodes, then we have a game on system with a substantial hit for the Tri-State. IF it develops a bit late, then C/E LI have a moderate to significant hit and the rest of the Tri-State is a left behind.

I personally still believe LI, NYC, S CT, CNJ take a hard hit here. Dynamically makes sense to me. However, there is always the potential this shifts further South. Given the downstream observations though, I would say this cannot correct too much further south. Some rather heavy rains and storms transversing the Carolinas.

I agree, however, the Ukie and Euro tend to follow each other. Downstream observations show a significant amount of juice with this storm. I would not completely discount, but, I would also say just keep in mind and watch Short Rangers currently. If they begin to back up the Euro, then I would put true stock in it.

Where the really heavy stuff sets up (of course this assuming the phase is clean and this explodes as some of the Short Rangers are alluding to), I would say the major highways are going to gunk up relatively quickly. If you have SN to SN-, then roadways are fine. But -and again this is an assumption which could bust- if the storm sets up in such a manner so as to dump some SN+, then roadways will quickly become rather nasty. This is why I was saying I would prepare as if you are going to take a hit, because to be caught off guard in something like that is not fun (IE, Feb 2013 - No I am not saying this is a Feb 2013 redux).

My 2 Cents: Those in the fringe areas, treat this as if it will be a hit and take precautions, especially NYC, LI, NW and CNJ and SE CT on up through SE MA. This snowfall will be incredibly heavy where the axis sets up and you do not want to be caught off guard. This is the type of snow which creates traffic havoc and can lead to some of these horror stories you hear of when people are stuck for extended periods of times. Not saying it will be apocalyptic, but something to keep in mind and prepare for.