MillvilleWx
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Everything posted by MillvilleWx
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If these 12z runs come to fruition, I think you'll do pretty well up there with the elevation factor and forever pivoting bands on the backside of this thing. I like 5-10" for your hood
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I think we are running out of time for that big a jump, but never know. I think we are starting to see the goal posts narrow on the SLP placement. This sucker looks like a classic double barrel low with a primary low tucked due to the phasing 5H pattern. Truly a classic setup
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Someone will see a nasty min from this storm, and my guess is it'll be somewhere west of I-83 to about the Catoctins. Norlun trough looks to be priming for west of there near the I-81 corridor from Winchester to the Potomac. We will see, but there will be a nice mini-max where ever that formally sets up.
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A little bit. That one was an I-95 special. That radar in engrained into my memory bank. The CCB oscillating over I-95 for hours until the closed 5H center out of WV finally caught up to it and stacked off SNJ. This one will be stronger in terms of pressures and winds, but somewhere will get a gnarly deformation axis and snow will undoubtedly linger into Monday if this gets captured near our latitude, which seems to have some growing consensus.
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This happened with the Feb 2006 storm. I'll never forget seeing the visible satellite that morning after staying up all night with the heavy thundersnow.
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Over 1" in my hood along the bay. I'm really liking the area along and east of I-97 right now.
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It's the HRRR at range, so take it with a grain of salt, but to say it's awful was not even remotely true for our areas of AA Co. That was an onslaught.
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There will be an ultimate loser out of this on the western edge, but it's tough to say where. The norlun trough is going to be really important for you guys to hit max potential. I'm semi-bullish for areas of NE MD down along and east of I-97. I'm bullish af for areas east of Cambridge latitude. Delaware is the place to be for our sub-forum.
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WPC current forecast for BWI is 6.5". You think AA Co gets sucker holed? I think AA Co is probably good for 4" with more east.
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I forecasted 6” for your area today before any of this calamity started from the 18z and 00z runs. I’m hoping this CCB hits the 95 corridor flush and we can all sing kumbaya
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That includes you my friend
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I would shit a brick if we got a redux of that. It’s still my Dad’s favorite rates driven event. Said he’s never seen snowflakes bigger than he did from that one.
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Heaviest snowfall for east of the fall line looks to be just before sunset and beyond so should be good. Anything earlier than that, I agree it’ll be difficult. I’m curious to see the dynamic in that for this one. Probably some weird gradients forming in MD and NoVA.
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Along and east of I-95 will need to watch this very closely. This is giving shades of some of the monsters of the past for east of the fall line. I feel really good if I’m along the west shore of the Bay and points east.
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I would only end up with 18”. Boo hoo!
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I was seeing 12-15:1 in the CCB and norlun on the desk today from guidance. I was shocked. It was brutal 5-7:1 during the day, but as height falls ensued, it crashed hard to climo and better. Even the NAMNest got to 13:1 on the eastern shore. Someone is about to get hammered on the Delmarva and I’m liking my spot here right along the west shore of the Bay. Hopefully we can bring this home
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The band will probably be a bit wider than that, but the premise stands. Idk where, but my wag is somewhere between Winchester to just east of the Potomac. That seems to be where consensus is lying. It’ll orient north-northwest to south-southeast too. I’m looking forward to seeing how that materializes.
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That’s part of the norlun trough. Watch for that scenario closely. I’m not kidding when I say someone well away from the coast will have a nice surprise.
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I believe I had your ratios at the storm height around 10-12:1, but there could easily banding that eclipses that. 15:1 max within a CCB banded structure or within the norlun trough is plausible, but I would lean towards 8-10:1 storm average overall.
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Use a blend of model guidance which have their own ratio calculations and apply weights. We do that ourselves as the forecaster. I look at soundings and lots of other variables to create my own in-house SLR output which starts from the NBM and work from there. It’s a cool process and a lot of work, but we use every tool in the toolbox sometimes!
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NBM implied ratios are always too high, that’s why. Look at QPF instead and adjust with own ratios.
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Italian food is definitely amazing that way and incredible hoagies. I’ll give you great food although we are good with that over yonder too Here’s to a nice storm
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It was 48° for a high in my neighborhood and by the time I got back home, it was 45°. Cold waters doing numbers keeping this area cool
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Bay temp near me is like 34°, so I doubt that right now. We just melted the ice past few days haha
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Why on earth would you want to ruin DC by sticking in NJ. Oh God
