poolz1

Mangled flakes starting to mix in here.  34.1  

Yeah hr39 was probably the only panel that improved...

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I actually like h5 thru 39 if were being honest with each other here 

Was thinking the same thing...lol.  More dig with the ns and less held back in the SW.  We'll see if it continues

What a beast of an Arctic high in a prime location.  Would be a shame not to attack violently.

Obviously, my preference would be for 100% cold smoke but if not at least give me something interesting.  A pretty wild day... Single digit lows, snow with temps in the teens, rapid temp rise, rapid pressure falls and strong winds. 

Currently, gusts outside 40+ I would think.  Its the loudest I can remember in this house (15yrs) and we live in a fairly protected spot. I am sure the ridge tops are getting big time gusts..

988.5mb

Roaring wind... 991.1mb

994mb 34/33 

Hoping the ULL pass can give a freshener early tomorrow morning.

Maybe some down-sloping off of S Mtn going on imby.  Temp up to 29

Crazy temp rise.  27/26  

3.1" snow.  Mostly sleet now.  21/16

Finally some nice dendrites!  Pouring snow.  .75" in the past hour.  Got 2-3 more hours to add up.  My bar set at 3" looks to be too low.

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nice. Powering down a homemade Bull on the Beach Blue plate special right now. Nothing better than beach food while its snowing.

Whatever floats your boat!  Im outta sorts this snowfall... Some leftover Bushmills is cabinet from the holidays, chili from whatever we could dig up and cornbread.  Enjoy the powder bomb as long as it lasts.  Heres to a +bust!

Skillet cornbread just came out of the oven.

1.5" on the board. Mod snow - 19/14

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

this aged well.

Flake size increased the last 10 mins.  Mod snow.  Measuring will be impossible with the wind.  

That traffic cam out of McHenry shows the wind!  Whipping snow across the lake.  Great mountain storm...enjoy.

Low of 7.  Currently 9/4

Bar is set at 3" imby.  Beautiful storm with a crappy evolution. Looking at latest obs...Lower heights out front at 13z than the NAM has. 

Wow.... I have no clue what it takes for an eruption to actually affect weather patterns but that is some fascinating stuff.  Would the easterly shear in the strat be our -QBO showing up on sat?

42 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Like many of the rest of you, I’m looking past this weekend to what could be coming up next. That disturbance next Friday-Saturday on the GFS has been around in some form or another, and it’s started a little bit of a jog to the northwest. We see something hanging around on all other guidance, as well (CDS being the most ridiculous solution for now).

With the trend over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GFS continues moving that one to the northwest, with all guidance starting to converge by the time the upcoming joke is out of here.

Even being further NW I am looking for the next one.  Don't get me wrong I am looking forward to the thump because I enjoy all snow.  But I know this has 3-4" and a rapid changeover written all over it.  Even up here. (5 miles west of the BR)

00Z EPS increased its signal for this time period.  

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

EPS 500 track shifted east from 00z.  00z mean had the 500 low track over NW VA and 06z has it tracking through central VA to just east of DC.  I haven’t looked into the individual members but the takeaway for me is the 6z Euro and EPS seems to have stopped the westward push for now.

Thats my takeaway as well.  The H5 track noticeably east from the time it rounds the corner down south.  Hopefully these slight adjustments east continue today.

Obviously, everyone is looking for that first sign this will tick east.  Confluence to the NE, the diving energy on the backside of the storm but one other factor could be a weaker ULL in general.  The 06 eps shows this to be the case vs 00z.  The control shows it nicely...weaker ULL but same track produces a slp 30-40 east of 00z and doest hook back nearly as much.

Just blend the GFS and ICON....thats my in house ensemble.

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Just needs to dig further west so it doesn't get shredded by the low off the coast.

And the fact that it is speeding up each run isn't helping us either. So much potential if it just had room to breathe..

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

 

It was looking good, but just did not go negative in time. NC does well

 

Yeah,  the changes on the ATL side were the first positive move in several runs.  Still a ways to go for this to go negative and be our storm. 

That is one heck of a piece of NS energy on the GFS.  Confluent flow slightly relaxed...Dont know if it will make it this run but a positive move, imo.

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I thought this Friday would be too soon, but WB 12Z to 18Z EPS interesting shift, let’s see if the trend continues…

As long as it doesn't real us in and turn into another Boxin....

42 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

I've taken a few hard falls from refreezing water.

You're walking fine and all in a sudden you're down on the ground, back of the head bleeding and all cut up from the edge of the gravel in the tar and chip road.  It's literally like the feeling of a whip pulling your feet out from under you and bam!  And when you get over 50 the risk of concussion is real.

The other type is where you're well aware of the ice, see it, step on it and feel your shoes/boots sliding but you're confident that you can do it.  Then the sliding starts and sometimes you luck out and can grab something like a railing or car.  Or if not so lucky you start a sort of dance on skis thing that can wind up really ugly.

It really looks funny seeing it and its hard not to laugh for sure but people tend to get hurt when this happens.

Number three (guy on driveway) I've done before and the grass is definitely way to go!

 

Lol...they interviewed the couple that fell down their steps.  That should be funnier than the video itself.  "We want you for an exclusive zoom interview about how you fell down on your arse."  Hard up for content I guess?