poolz1

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Snowing moderately again. 

3.5" so far

Dude, that's awesome!  3.5 already! 

Mod/hvy here now in this band.  finally some real snow....been jonesing a while for this.

Nice puff balls falling at a light/mod clip.  .5" so far.  Lets get this cranking!

Living on the edge....still light snow even though the radar looks meh right over mby. Enough for a coating so far.

16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Already have a car topper here in Smithsburg. Wasn't expecting it to start for a few more hours

You look to be in a good spot man.  I am on the southern end of this "band" and its a nice, steady light snow but beautiful fluffy dendrites falling now as thing the dry air fades.  Not quite a car topper here but getting there.

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I feel ya. I had flurries and now snow has stopped. This winter sucks.

Looks like that initial slug was just a blip...still light snow here but its pulling north.  Once the stuff down near Luray gets up here it should be game on. Not too much longer.

Had about an hour of flurries being right on the edge of the precip.  Light snow finally! 34/27

Little bit of a chilly airmass there at the end of the GFS run.  Obviously, the end of an op run but with the projected pattern something extreme is on the table imo.  

This thing is booking it...no surprise there but western areas may see first flakes before the sun sets.  Weenie radar with returns reaching out for SW WV already.

Looks like a busy period ahead.  Most likely 3 events in 7 days for the MA.  Ops have plenty of chances throughout the next two weeks.  I do see the dryish look on the ens but wonder how much of that is due to a cluster of members having the entire tpv dropping down for an extended period and crushing everything....skewing things drier on the mean?

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anecdotal evidence but strongly agree and have thought the same thing for at least 8-10 years. Hot hands rotate. We see it every winter. Gfs does ok in the mid range with northern stream shortwaves. Often the first model to pick up on one with potential. Euro does a nice job with pure southern stream waves in the mid range most of the time. Other than that, it's best to keep an open mind and apply your yard climo and what usually happens with a similar setup. Personally, I stick to the euro/gfs combo and just blend them with my yard climo. Works well for mid range thoughts. 

Thing is, we're focusing on an acre of land with a model that covers every acre on the planet. What we often think are huge shifts really aren't. Some are absolutely miniscule but the sensible effect is huge. This often results in unfair criticism but that's a whole nuther barrel of worms. 

 

 

Funny...I often think about this during the warm season.  What if this was snow?  Models calling for .5-.75" and we end up with .25"  Nobody cares when its 65 and rain...hardly even mentioned or noticed. In Jan ending up with 1-2" when the forecast was 4-8" would create epic meltdowns.  As winter approaches we all get out our magnifying glasses and browbeat any model not within .2" of verification. 

8 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said:

Maybe instead of just making posts about the GFS being the new king you can use some actual data.....oh wait, no you can't 

Honestly curious, what data do you have to support anything different?  Not doubt that the verification scores still suggest the euro is king. But these scores, at least the ones I have seen, only score NH H5.  Each season, any global can have its own reign at the top when it comes to discrete systems.  I have seen no scores when it comes to LP systems in our tiny corner of the NH....60 hours out.  But, I would certainly take a correction from someone more knowledgeable than myself....and that aint hard to find!  

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s so hard to tell with those maps. I think I’m the end result may be a littler wetter and faster.

And it’s the NAM

Less separation, stronger lead wave....Bad.   BUT the lead wave over the NE gets outta the way and has less trailing energy to continue suppressing. Like you said tho....NAM

41 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z Euro looks good for a region-wide moderate event.  Generally 4-6”+ DC/north.  2-4” EZF/SE MD.  7-9” mountains.

Lets just lock that up right now please... A classic region wide light/mod event.  All snow for just about everyone.  Living vicariously through traffic cams sucks.

Need the gfs to sharpen its trough pencil...

Looking at the very long range...what else is there to do but stare at my brown grass!   GEFS, CMC ens and EPS have a pretty nice signal out there around D12 for a coastal.  Obviously, I'm focussing on what is right in front us but just noting that having all 3 global ens look pretty similar that far out is not common.   

Just going for a coating here but that may be a stretch.  You can see the push north in the returns over WV as the storm gains strength and some lat.  That move is my only hope!

Congrats to those s and e....enjoy the pasting!

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Not sure I've ever seen a gradient quite that Sharp. Frederick is basically nothing.  Head down 270  about 15 mile and your pushing double digits. Just crazy

It is pretty nuts...I don't think I have ever been right on the line of such a sharp gradient.  I could honestly see getting 1-3" or not a single flake imby.

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There’s plenty of time because it won’t take much in the way of changes. They only need be minor.

Good calls today... I honestly wrote this one off for up this way.  With the qpf output from the GFS it looks like I will stay up for the 0z runs.  Expectations have been elevated to just above ground level!  Just need this thing to continue to amp up....

18z Euro and eps with a bit more stream separation for the 1/2-3 system.  18z op actually looked poised to produce something similar to the 18z gfs.  

5 hours ago, 87storms said:

if it wasn't for moving and starting a new job this year, amongst other things, i'd probably care more, but at this point i'm just happy to be able to bike/hoop so deep into the season.  i'm definitely craving a snowstorm, though.  i don't think nina is gonna move too much this season (noaa has it lasting through prime), but the pacific seems active enough that maybe a well timed zonal vort could work out, if nothing else.

I've just gutted out our bathroom to it's bones!  Certainly occupying my time but like you said....I'm jonesing for some snow.  A well timed vort or 2 seems like a good bet, imo. Just give me one solid event....

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

I just want that high-amplitude push into 8 that the forecast was showing like 10 days ago. 

Lol...I am to the point where I just want something other than a nina.  This hobby gets tiresome in years like this.  We'll earn every damn flake we see this year no doubt.

1 hour ago, leo2000 said:

Really what shows that?. Just wondering.

Just going off today's RMM plots...

An encouraging MJO forecast today.  We may possibly see an extended phase 8...

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's Complicated.

Firstly a -PNA isn't always a bad thing.

Jet extensions occur more in Nino, while retractions are favored in a Nina. A poleward shift is more likely in a Nina. MJO phase can have an impact, however. Don't quote me, but I think jet extensions in general are favored during MJO phases 7 and 8, so if we are in fact seeing an extension of the Pac jet (during a Nina) it is probably related to the MJO. What a surprise!

I am sipping on my first bourbon after a couple glasses of wine with dinner.

Appreciate it. As cbmclean said, I recall praying for the PAC jet to chill out last winter.  But, our MJO phases were completely different, iirc? The never-ending hobby....always more to learn.

Cheers!

6 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Been reading several items about wanting a Pacific jet extension to help shake up the NPac ridge.  I was thinking wasn't it last year that we were desperately hoping for the jet to retract so we could shake off the Pac puke?  So an extended jet is sometimes good and sometimes bad?  Anyone with more knowledge have any insight?

Great point....I have been thinking the exact same thing.  I see CAPE's point above but still don't quite get it tbh.  Maybe a case of like everything else in life...moderation is best.  As I sip on my third bourbon! lol