poolz1

Cherry picking obviously....but just another op run with a wild +anom over the top.  The exact location and expanse changes each run but pretty consistent with an extreme ridge in the Arctic region at 500 in the LR.  Usually when the op consistently sees something like this the ens will adjust.  No idea if it means snow and cold for our region but definitely something new compared to what we have now.

Something changes drastically around h300 over the past few runs.  The stagnant PAC ridge gets shoved poleward and a new regime settles into the Pacific.  Possibly the jet extension that was mentioned.... which is certainly noticeable around that same hour.

Latest is a 582dm ridge just north of AK.

Glazed orange rolls....

Though this is the timeframe others have noted @CAPE.... 12z euro with a close call on something better than a wave running a boundary.

Monday morning at 12z with precipitation approaching...Using MRB 

18z GFS 34/24

18z Euro 39/31

@wxtrix Beautiful!  That caldo verde looks delicious.  Kale is tough (in more ways than one) but in a soup with a salted meat you can't go wrong.

My first batch of 4 loaves... Nothing overly complicated.  A sweet bread, jelly roll style with cinnamon and sugar.  A family tradition taught to me by my mom.

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That's it. I'm coming over 

Gas it up and come on! 

Revival for the holidays!

8 Loaves of cinnamon swirl bread baked yesterday.  Glazed orange rolls tomorrow.  Standing rib roast Christmas day.  My favorite cooking time of year.

Tonight...spatchcock chicken in the oven.  Broccoli, cabbage and herbs picked from the hoop house this evening.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The main piece of energy tracks way NW, and it becomes a weak strung out mess as it moves east. Best chance of seeing anything 'significant'- frozen or otherwise- would probably be in the western part of our region, and mostly further north. Might not see anything from the metros point east.

Agreed, if everything goes right it is a mulch whitener with a crust on top for areas west of the BR.  I will take it at this point though....

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Any thoughts on Monday maybe starting as a period of snow. Doesn’t look likely but maybe possible?

GFS has a pretty dry airmass overhead... dews in the upper 10's - low 20's on Monday morning. Euro kicks everything just a bit N.  Wish I could say I trust the GFS but it seems like the euro has been winning this midrange battle with systems here lately. 

Maybe a decent window of opportunity starting 1/1.  All 3 global ens with a cold push during this timeframe along with waves running the boundary to our south.  Finally, a precip signal that is lining up with some colder temps.

.12" last night.  Just went back and looked at my records for this fall.  Since Nov 1st only 1.11" has fallen here...including last nights rain.  Somehow the dog still tracks mud in the house daily.

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Sorry to be a pessimistic, as you all know, I want it to snow, but the sad reality is the warmest and least snowy model has been winning out lately.  And there are signs that this pattern change if it ever happens is delayed again.  Wasn’t it just last week that the consensus was after Christmas, now it’s after NY; I am now going to be a believer when it looks like it is inside 5 days.

I definitely hear what you are saying.  But, the pattern is changing right on top of us.  It was just 2 weeks ago or so that people were noting how "all the wrong colors are in all the wrong places."  The ball of blue over AK and the all of the HLB locations.  There are definitely faults to the advertised pattern but we are gnat's hair away from a very nice set up.  We aren't yet in the game but the coach has us by the jersey and is ready to put us in! But hey, two weeks we weren't even in the stadium.

Personally, just a little help out west would be best.  If we get a full on ++PNA that links up over the top the PV will be sitting over Lake Erie....especially with the strength of the west based block.  A slow transition that ebbs and flows would be nice.

12z euro ens show the western trough weakening toward the end of the run with the 50/50ish trough becoming dominant.  West based block still going strong....  

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's not what I would call stable. Beginning this weekend the anomalous ridge flattens with some NS energy/chilly air impinging, so temps will go back and forth a bit. As advertised we could be generally colder by Xmas, and esp thereafter as the -NAO becomes more established.

I was just thinking that it looks like we may have a false start to this pattern next week, warm up a bit for the holidays (of course) and then the pattern becomes better established.  

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

it’s notably stable pattern on the GEFS…but through 324…it’s just stable above normal for us.  Yet when compared to past 4 runs you can see lower heights in the east post Xmas.  No idea but it’s something. It is what it is and who knows if that deep arctic air in w. Canada will move SE.  

That is one impressive -NAO signal toward the end of the month for an ensemble mean. 

23 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Is that the one which was showing a massive stream of moisture coming out of the Southwest and running over a deep layer of cold air for days on end?

That is the way I remember it looking.  Cold smoke with a crazy gradient to our south and an endless moisture stream from the SW.  One can dream... 

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I remember how that pattern developed in 17-18. Looked like an amazing overrunning pattern at range and the models were keying in on a storm from D8-10, but then the cold push overwhelmed it and it was suppressed to hell and gone. We got a couple minor events in a cold and dry period. 

My memory is terrible when it comes to past patterns and even minor/mod events.  But, that fantasy overrunning event depicted on the models was droll worthy and is etched in my memory.  Would love to see an event like that really unfold.  For folks with better memories, what past event looked most like that fantasy set up?

Phase 8 with decent amplitude....GEFS should continue to look decent toward the end of the run. Euro with the same look but just a little delayed by a day or two.

0z GEFS with the trough finally east of the HI islands and a trough retrograding into the NE.  Out there at the end of the run...so, grain of salt for now. You can see a very nice pattern setting up in the D15-20 if that progression continued.

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It would be nice to see the EPS get more enthused about a -NAO in that timeframe. Even with the PAC ridge extending more poleward into the EPO domain, the location/orientation appears to favor keeping the trough out west, at least initially. Need what the GEFS is advertising in the NA in order to counter the -PNA and beat down the eastern US ridge.

I agree....but at least over the past few weeks it seems like the GEFS have had a better handle on the LR than the EPS.  Just an observation but it wasn't too long ago the EPS was steadfast on a nice +PNA for early Dec and the GEFS wanted no part in it.  A consensus inside 10 days on a workable pattern sure would be nice. 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest runs of the GEFS build heights nicely into the NAO domain leading up to Christmas. Eastern ridge is flatter/weaker, with more of a gradient pattern look, so not impossible to see something of interest in that timeframe as advertised. EPS moves in that direction but then backs off, leaving the +height anomalies near Scandinavia at day 15. CMC ens looks more like the EPS, but has leading edge of colder air bleeding into the N plains. 

I have been waiting to see some fantasy op runs that start to point to a -NAO developing in that timeframe.  As you know, these -NAO episodes are rarely picked up on in the long range but once inside D10-12 you can start to see glimpses on op runs and on the ens to a certain extent.  18z thru the 06z run this morning all featured a robust + hight atom moving into GL.  The first runs I have seen in a while and it has been 3 in row (4 if you count the 12z run yesterday). But still...like you said, we just can't know yet!  Hey, maybe we can get a nice block just before the holidays that produces like the 06z run.... 

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Doesn't really look like the bird/insect stuff we are used to. Is there a fire/explosion out that way? That was weird. 

Saw that as well.  Same thing on the radar out of Pitt around the same time.  Thinking birds myself...

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This dovetails nicely with that tweet by Eric Webb that @frd posted.  A strong Scandi ridge is a typical precursor for -NAO events as the Rossby wave propagates and the ridge moves westward into the NAO domain with time.  

 

I doubt we're in a cold/snowy pattern by Xmas, but I expect things will be moving in a positive way by the beginning of that week around the 20th.  

18z GEFS is probably too quick with the progression, or just plain wrong.  But the end of the run shows the beginning of what you just described.  A hint of lower heights pushing toward the 50/50 region while the ridge begins to redevelop westward into GL. A little washed but definitely some members seeing it.

Would be nice to see a decent pattern setting up for late Dec.  Just in time for prime climo. 

EPS really honking the scan ridging in the LR.

The one consistent theme in the LR is the Aleutian ridge and the Barents/Kara Sea ridge.  Both are poised to squeeze the PV into NA if tropical forcing can cooperate for a time and allow the PAC ridge to go poleward. Wishful thinking? Absolutely! 

I will remain optimistic and hopeful...why? Because if it doesn't snow life will still go on. Though,  I will admit this place can beat you down with negativity...