poolz1

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's not what I would call stable. Beginning this weekend the anomalous ridge flattens with some NS energy/chilly air impinging, so temps will go back and forth a bit. As advertised we could be generally colder by Xmas, and esp thereafter as the -NAO becomes more established.

I was just thinking that it looks like we may have a false start to this pattern next week, warm up a bit for the holidays (of course) and then the pattern becomes better established.  

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

it’s notably stable pattern on the GEFS…but through 324…it’s just stable above normal for us.  Yet when compared to past 4 runs you can see lower heights in the east post Xmas.  No idea but it’s something. It is what it is and who knows if that deep arctic air in w. Canada will move SE.  

That is one impressive -NAO signal toward the end of the month for an ensemble mean. 

23 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Is that the one which was showing a massive stream of moisture coming out of the Southwest and running over a deep layer of cold air for days on end?

That is the way I remember it looking.  Cold smoke with a crazy gradient to our south and an endless moisture stream from the SW.  One can dream... 

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I remember how that pattern developed in 17-18. Looked like an amazing overrunning pattern at range and the models were keying in on a storm from D8-10, but then the cold push overwhelmed it and it was suppressed to hell and gone. We got a couple minor events in a cold and dry period. 

My memory is terrible when it comes to past patterns and even minor/mod events.  But, that fantasy overrunning event depicted on the models was droll worthy and is etched in my memory.  Would love to see an event like that really unfold.  For folks with better memories, what past event looked most like that fantasy set up?

Phase 8 with decent amplitude....GEFS should continue to look decent toward the end of the run. Euro with the same look but just a little delayed by a day or two.

0z GEFS with the trough finally east of the HI islands and a trough retrograding into the NE.  Out there at the end of the run...so, grain of salt for now. You can see a very nice pattern setting up in the D15-20 if that progression continued.

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It would be nice to see the EPS get more enthused about a -NAO in that timeframe. Even with the PAC ridge extending more poleward into the EPO domain, the location/orientation appears to favor keeping the trough out west, at least initially. Need what the GEFS is advertising in the NA in order to counter the -PNA and beat down the eastern US ridge.

I agree....but at least over the past few weeks it seems like the GEFS have had a better handle on the LR than the EPS.  Just an observation but it wasn't too long ago the EPS was steadfast on a nice +PNA for early Dec and the GEFS wanted no part in it.  A consensus inside 10 days on a workable pattern sure would be nice. 

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Latest runs of the GEFS build heights nicely into the NAO domain leading up to Christmas. Eastern ridge is flatter/weaker, with more of a gradient pattern look, so not impossible to see something of interest in that timeframe as advertised. EPS moves in that direction but then backs off, leaving the +height anomalies near Scandinavia at day 15. CMC ens looks more like the EPS, but has leading edge of colder air bleeding into the N plains. 

I have been waiting to see some fantasy op runs that start to point to a -NAO developing in that timeframe.  As you know, these -NAO episodes are rarely picked up on in the long range but once inside D10-12 you can start to see glimpses on op runs and on the ens to a certain extent.  18z thru the 06z run this morning all featured a robust + hight atom moving into GL.  The first runs I have seen in a while and it has been 3 in row (4 if you count the 12z run yesterday). But still...like you said, we just can't know yet!  Hey, maybe we can get a nice block just before the holidays that produces like the 06z run.... 

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Doesn't really look like the bird/insect stuff we are used to. Is there a fire/explosion out that way? That was weird. 

Saw that as well.  Same thing on the radar out of Pitt around the same time.  Thinking birds myself...

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

This dovetails nicely with that tweet by Eric Webb that @frd posted.  A strong Scandi ridge is a typical precursor for -NAO events as the Rossby wave propagates and the ridge moves westward into the NAO domain with time.  

 

I doubt we're in a cold/snowy pattern by Xmas, but I expect things will be moving in a positive way by the beginning of that week around the 20th.  

18z GEFS is probably too quick with the progression, or just plain wrong.  But the end of the run shows the beginning of what you just described.  A hint of lower heights pushing toward the 50/50 region while the ridge begins to redevelop westward into GL. A little washed but definitely some members seeing it.

Would be nice to see a decent pattern setting up for late Dec.  Just in time for prime climo. 

EPS really honking the scan ridging in the LR.

The one consistent theme in the LR is the Aleutian ridge and the Barents/Kara Sea ridge.  Both are poised to squeeze the PV into NA if tropical forcing can cooperate for a time and allow the PAC ridge to go poleward. Wishful thinking? Absolutely! 

I will remain optimistic and hopeful...why? Because if it doesn't snow life will still go on. Though,  I will admit this place can beat you down with negativity...

Maybe some coatings late tonight/early am...

As Wentz said, that transitory +PNA is key.  Ops are jumping around with it's placement but the signal is there for a ridge to pop.  Ens are showing it as well but are just a little washed...plenty of uncertainty on placement, strength and orientation.

Some interesting ingredients are there.  Plenty of Arctic air ready to be tapped just prior to any ridging going up.

Can you still post pics from a link from sites like imgur?  I have had no success with trying to post links to pics or gifs.  I only have the option for posting the site restriction of .00000000001MB

Broke into the teens for the first time.  19.4 for the low.

Well, if the eps is correct towards the end of the run (big if) this may be a fun ride after turkey day!

Cross polar flow, with still a nice GL blocking signal.

Euro ens again trying to pull the trough back in the west and create a real deal winter pattern as we close out Nov.  Seems like something shifted overnight with both GEFS (as CAPE posted) and the euro looking better in the LR.  Maybe MJO related?

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

The weather is almost always the same around Thanksgiving down there - 65 or so and partly cloudy - though we've had some pretty nasty days and some really warm ones in the 10 years or so we've ben there for the holiday. It's honestly pretty great. We can open the windows and enjoy the fresh air, let the kids run outside, go fishing, play a round of golf. Then we can come home and be ready for the chill and the Christmas season!

That sounds outstanding.  I have been advocating for a beach Thanksgiving for years....but, you know family traditions die hard and I have been voted down each time.

Some digital love from the always accurate control!

23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Does anyone have access to the pattern that caused the 1987 Veteran’s Day event?  

Somehow people on here can pull up stuff from memory.  Not this guy.  PSU just referenced a WAA event in 2018 and I had no memory of it! lol  

Maybe this is what you are looking for?  I use it quite a bit when memory fails...which is often. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/

Getting that uneasy feeling that the trough pulling back off the west coast of NA is a can that gets kicked.  GEFS have been backing off a bit but the euro still likes a massive PNA ridge to develop and the trough in a nice spot to pump that ridge..  Wouldn't be surprising I guess to see the GEFS be correct on this given what all know is most likely this season.  

30.4 when I left the house this morning at 5am.  Heavy frost....will have to see when I get home if the temp dropped further into the upper 20s. 

4 hours ago, mattie g said:

I like the idea, but let's be real...about six people would do all the talking while the rest of us either don't know what we're talking about or are socially awkward enough to just remain quiet.

Pretty much like this forum now.  Only difference will be that PSU has to put on pants now to relay random stats from past winters....broken down by elevation.  lol j/k

I actually like this idea as well...would certainly add value to an already great, informative place.