poolz1

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Basically growing a tree outside of its natural range is the culprit I’d say.

 It is a cold climate variety that is grown all the way up in Wisconsin.  The constant false start to spring and then return to deep winter cold is the culprit.  

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah. South facing daffodils likely to pop. Ones in shady spaces are still a long way off. Thankfully my magnolia seems to be a couple weeks off still. I’ve had it bloom in February before and then get obliterated in March. 

17 years at this house which had a nice magnolia tree established when we moved in.  I think I have seen it in full bloom a few times.  Always prematurely destroyed by March cold. Is this the name of the game with magnolias or is "March is the new Dec" the culprit? 

Funny how the later in the season the more your bar raises rapidly.  It has to be pretty anomalous for me to be interested this time of year....plenty of other things to start thinking about.  A knee high paste job or give me spring.  The LR at least has the potential to produce a high qpf event with plenty of cold around.

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sad? You're doing it exactly right. I no longer spend any time on time suck social media. Even here it's not wasting my time. Sports groups are just shouting matches and egos. I mean it's fun if you have time for it. Tik tok may be the greatest time waster ever invented. My 25 year old daughter disconnected permanently for that reason. 

 

I'll bet you spend a lot of time outdoors and working with your hands to drive satisfaction and reward in your life. Not 100% sure but I get that vibe. I'm exactly that. I don't even watch network TV at all anymore. I'm done with that dumb stuff. I have bigger plans and they all include the natural world. Not a 4x6 rectangle screen looking for people to make fun of. 

Spot on man.  I have always been an outdoors person and love to build things.  Some people do yoga, some meditate but working with your hands outside is just another form of meditation, imo.  Laser focused on the task at hand and very little distractions.  I have also disconnected from social and it has been so nice.  I still use twitter but eliminated everyone I followed with the exception of fishing, gardening, science and weather accounts. You learn real quick that you actually don't gaf what the lunatic fringe thinks....spending the time to read comments on any social will rot your brain and your soul. 

10 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

DUDE. That's breathtaking. THAT'S award-winning photography right there, at least in my book.

I appreciate it!  I am certainly no photographer...It was just a quick shot with an iPhone 13.  Wish I could get Imgur links to work like they used to in here.  I had to really reduce the resolution to get it to upload.  

Here is the link to the full res if anyone is interested.

https://imgur.com/X2cX9Mh

4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

That's beautiful!

Thanks!  It was a surreal scene with the sun breaking through.

Steady freezing rain.  31/30

dropped .8 degrees in the past 30 minutes as soon as steady precip moved in.

 Current wet bulb temps across NMD 28-30.  Surface flow out of the NNE should maintain these temps with the high anchored north of Lake Ontario

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I don't think Rain at 30 will do much after temps the past few days

Im more Interested in the sleet potential some of the models are showing. Could be a several hour period of sleet tomorrow evening which would be interesting 

Most of the freezing rain potential comes after the sun goes down tomorrow eve.  Dark, 30 and rain will have no problem on trees and power lines especially after a day of temps around freezing. You are going to be in a nasty spot if temps pan out as forecast, imo.   

The high does have staying power though... it fades but doesn't run off the to the east with rapid return flow.  Typically, these trend colder as we near game time.  I know my local climo though, 33.8 with rain is most likely. Just a little elevation to the the north could be in for a nasty icing event, imo.

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Definitely a D for my Yard. I'm in Washington County about 3 miles from the M/D line.

12" on the season. Average is about 28"

The only reason I dont give an F is  because I did have a 6" storm back in the middle of January.  Was totally whiffed on the Jan. 3rd.

Nickled and Dimmed my way to 12"

I'm with ya on that grade.  11.6" here.  A march blizzard could change my mind but it has been frustrating so far.  Starting to get the itch for some smallmouth fishing and it is still Feb. 

33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It has generally been more erratic than typical. Maybe it is about to get back on a hot streak.

Life was easier when the GFS was always more progressive and the euro was always amped/NW.  They had to go and upgrade everything and confuse the s

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not much to say about HH GFS. It is still holding its ground for the most part. We will probably know in another 4-5 days whether or not it has a clue or if it is just doing GFS-like things that have largely been in error lately. 

I guess saying "GFS things" is probably the best way to put it.  There really doesn't seem to be an obvious bias.  The GFS has been too far NW with some systems, too far SE with others and locked in on a few. The last system to affect the midwest was a good example of the GFS being stubbornly NW while the EC and CMC were  pretty good if you blended the two. 

43 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

1.3" with light snow still falling.  Good fluff factor....haven't measured qpf yet but definitely some nice dendrites falling around 330am when I woke up.

,09" liquid.  Def a lesson in ratios in that most of the snow fell at 31/32 degrees.  

1.3" with light snow still falling.  Good fluff factor....haven't measured qpf yet but definitely some nice dendrites falling around 330am when I woke up.

I love snow and would prefer a nice cold powder bomb but I also love anomalous winter weather.  Id take what the 18z gfs is selling in a heartbeat.  Not too often you see an event unfold like that around here.  

18z GEFS compared to 12z.  Better cold press on the mean and more ind members fell in line with the op.

25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Best pixie rates currently of the day  

Who needs radar 

Absolutely!  Finally hit 1" here....only took 7 hours. lol  Models did pretty good out this way.  Hoping to squeeze out another .5-1" but that may be pushing it.  

The pixie is coating everything now that we are firmly below freezing.  Almost looks like rime on the trees.

Good luck to those to the east!

Nice steady light snow for the past 45 min.  33/23

Just give me enough for a few roof blizzards tomorrow...

I wonder if we may see precip breaking out east of the mountains earlier.  NAM and RGEM are the earliest but the current radar looks pretty decent coming out of southern OH.  Certainly more robust than any of the models have shown for this time.

Yeah, the GEFS really had their hooks into the last really amplified system.  Cant trust anything anymore. lol

As Bob would say....if this plays out like this run there will be plenty of bruised and battered furry animals around my yard!

Not only timing imo.  The shape and placement of the west coast ridge when the energies start to make their slide down from western Canada into the us is key.  12z had a more N to S trajectory. 18z more of a SE slide which kicked the whole precess too far east.  Something in between would have been money.

Just now, HighStakes said:

Becoming more likely to see some light snow Sunday afternoon. GFS has an inch or so up this way.

Maybe some light clipper action Sunday night.  Been starting to show up east of the mountains on some recent runs.

One thing that looks to remain is the fact that the coldest air (relative to avg) in the NH will continue to reside in NA.  I wouldn't mind a gradient pattern with Arctic air pressing under some minor south east ridging.  Obviously, the risk is always there that we end up on the wrong side.