poolz1

If anything, Sunday looks like an interesting weather day.  A few GEFS and EPS members look like the Euro op.  Obviously, a long shot and probably not many interested in cold chasing warm especially east of the BR.  But hopefully this storm at least marks the end of our boring weather streak.

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The PDO really isnt a pattern driver. The phase is influenced by multiple factors, ENSO state being one. The MJO is a short term modulator and the current wave will be focused over the MC in the coming days and is largely responsible for the unfavorable looks on the PAC side imo. Beyond that the convection looks to shift into the Western PAC and weaken based on current forecasts. Ultimately the atmospheric response to a Nino should feature a NE PAC low, and the location of that going forward will become a major influence on the downstream pattern. We also have to factor in the current Strat activity and possible impacts on the h5 pattern. Upshot is the pattern is in flux and looks generally mild for the middle third of the month. End of Dec into Jan might be pretty interesting.

Great explanation.  Much appreciated...my comment about the PDO truly was a question.  Wasn't trying for a doom and gloom post, just an observation.

MJO is forecast to fade into the null phase out of warm phases and shows no interest in amplifying.  SOI hovering around 0 the past week or so.  Nino seems to be asleep when it comes to influencing the PAC pattern.  Until something changes the -PDO will rule the PAC i guess?

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

“usually” what happens is that all those features (NPac trough and western ridge) are west of those positions leading into the storm and then they roll east with the big storm. 

And is why we usually drip drip drip a few days after a big storm.  Just like the h5 post from PSU yesterday about the mid-nov storm in 87.  The plot was the day(s) of the storm.  But leading into that storm had a great pattern....the day of not so much.

Early in the winter season so far but the varying pattern makes me thing we shouldn't be surprised about a surprise.

I thought the 06z gfs showed some promise for the Dec 5th period.  Instead of one bundled lead wave it has a follow up wave that digs and a taller ridge on the west coast.  A little more separation and maybe that run could have worked for us?  Sure would be nice to track something...anything.

Let's get the digital snow thread cranking.  You would thing we would start seeing threats in the LR on the ops here soon.  That WB NAO is just a thing of beauty.  Maybe a bit of patience is needed? D10-15 with a PAC that seeds some Arctic air into the pattern may really kick things off.

Seeing the Pacific pattern just continue to reload is beautiful sight.  A little gun-shy after last season but starting to get the feeling we are seeing the winter pattern start to take form.  SPV still doing its yoga moves late in the period this run as well.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

GFS delivers back to back snow events for places just to our N/NW. Crazy op run 300+ hours out. Have to continue to watch this period on the ens guidance. 

It is interesting that it seems like the op runs have been leading the way with the advertised HLB especially in the NAO domain.  Getting there with each run but all 3 global ops have had some impressive blocking the past few days.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Still no sign of a negative or even neutral NAO/AO. Not a good sign.

I have no expectations after what we have dealt with over the past 3 years. But, here is just a week snapshot from mid Nov 2009.  We were staring at a horrid Pac and no real signs of life on the Atlantic side either.  We had to wait another 3 weeks until we started seeing positive signs.

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

It's almost impossible to keep blight from showing up on the lower leaves by this time of the year, so it does make sense for folks with more serious blight issues to take steps like sprays to keep it from progressing.

Healthier plants absolutely will remain productive despite some blight. Warm, muggy conditions will always have a negative effect if they last for too long, but keeping the plants pruned and allowing air to flow throughout the plants is a massive help. I mentioned earlier that I prune all suckers until the plants are 7-8' high (mid-summer or so) and I also get rid of lower leaves is and when they develop blight - this keeps the air flowing nicely (and I find it also helps with production in general).

Have you ever tried replanting those suckers?  I have had pretty good success with them as long as they are in the 2-4" tall range.   

12 hours ago, frd said:

Can you recommend the product name ?  

Also, is your blight under control with this product ?  

I ask because it seems this is more so a fertilizer for soil microbes. 

here is a cool research link 

 

 https://extension.illinois.edu/news-releases/scale-your-gardens-health-fish-emulsion-fertilizer

 

 

This is the product I use.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BSKJLBRJ?ref=ppx_yo2ov_dt_b_product_details&th=1

My tomatoes do have blight but it doesn't seem to want to creep up the entire plant. or, at least at a much slower rate than years past.  Typically, by september my tomatoes are done but I am still picking as of this morning.

Maybe just having healthier plants give them the ability to be more durable when it comes fungus/disease? Or, maybe the hot dry weather lately (out this way) is the answer?  Or maybe it was the low soil moisture in the early spring the past two years? Or... Ha! I'll be too old to garden by the time I get this hobby figured out!   

On 9/14/2023 at 1:53 PM, frd said:

Very true, thanks !  I researched last year that the blight spores reside in the soil , when it rains it splashes upon the bottom leaves and then works it way up the plant. 

Still happy I had decent tomatoe crop, but not like 30 years ago when I had so many I could can my own tomatoes for winter time homemade pizza sause or spaghetti sauce.     

I have always had significant issues with blight and other diseases. Wet years, dry years, didn't matter.  I did lay straw in my beds but but had to limit this because it increased the slug issue.  Last year I tried an organic fish based foliar spray and it has been a game changer....at least for me.  A weekly spray has improved the leaf color and fruit production on all our plants.  

Two straight years of a different gardening experience will keep me using it.  Until some other issue crops up! lol

Maybe a nod towards the GFS with how it handles SE Canada?  Hopefully the GFS starts to bleed toward the Euro.

18 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

33 in Smithsburg 

Dew of 21 so should be able to get the temp to drop a little with onset of precip 

Same obs here as well.  Maybe it is just wishful thinking but with the look of radar and current dryish air I am feeling a bit more confident in something other than a slushy coating.  I guess we will know in the next couple of hours.

Not bad and probably realistic the way things stand now.  Would be nice to a slow tick south with that initial "nose" of WAA precipitation.

 Or...southerly flow from the surface to the stratosphere may have something to do with it?

33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I listen to some that say they won't pay something any attention until we're within 3 days....but if you're a weenie I'm not sure how true that actually is. Now to 5 days? Sure--totally doable. But ain't nobody gonna be able resist looking till three days...I don't believe it, lol

Why do you think they are spending time in the LR thread?  Its like a smoker saying they are going to quit smoking while smoking a cig.

51 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I grew up in Frederick county between Frederick and Thurmont. I Remember alot of those snow to ice events that were loaded with moisture. There was 1 strom that year that had hour and hours of sleet. We had several inches of sleet. I've never seen anything like that again. After one of the snows my neighbor came over and snowblowed the backyard to get down to the ice from the previous storm. It made a pretty cool hockey rink for a few weeks.

Some of the storms had temps in the teens with pouring sleet.

I grew up in a similar spot...Walkersville.  Our driveway was about 100yds long and uphill. Remember   my sister's car sliding down the driveway, after a failed attempt to make it up. Slid off the driveway and stayed on top of the snow and into the woods. 

12z EPS continues the trend of pushing the boundary further south and east for the 22nd storm and others after.  The look up top continues to look better as well.

Pretty impressive snapshot.

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Really thought the SPV would weaken late month,  but it appears it wants to get stronger again.  Goes against the idea of what happened in December with a - 4.0 AO, happening again later in the season.  Will need to check back in mid month to see what transpires. 

 

 

I was surprised that he used the ext gefs to make a point about the strength of the SPV.  I mean, a D10 forecast is pretty flimsy when it comes to predicting this stuff let alone 30 days.

I don't know the dude he is replying to but he is making a point about a D10-15 op run.  Which in itself is flimsy...

It is premature, imo, to give so much weight to reverting back to a nina climo.  It is more like "it has to happen at some point, right?"  

The recent mjo rotation sent it into the cod and then into the warm phases. But, those warm phases did not produce nina warmth, they produced nino warmth.  

One would have thought we would have seen a classic nina pattern once the mojo was no longer the driver...but not so. I don't claim to know much but going with enso as a lr forecasting tool seems a bit riskier than normal this season.

7/-9  Fire in the fireplace and prime in the oven..... 

Check out the Mr. Pizza Cam in Buffalo... wow!

https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-mr-pizza

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Front appears to be passing Cumberland right now.  It's getting really windy and the temps are bouncing up and down 5F depending on which pass we're driving through.  Meadow mountain at 9F 

Just a heads up...traffic cams past Frostburg show some rough driving conditions.  Just tire tracks visible 

Looks like the front is about to push through Cumberland...as best I can tell. Single digits pushing into western WV/PA