poolz1

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Was about to post something about this. It’s not a big change from recent runs around the end of the month, but has faster and stronger return to high latitude blocking. Gradient pattern suggested with cold pressing from the north. I could get into that.

Absolutely.  Always hard to tell if these are head fakes or if it is truly picking up on a return to a favorable HL look.  Wait and see.  At least it isn't 50 degrees and brown outside while we discuss winter returning.

12z GEFS with the first signs of Blocking showing up.  TPV dropping further south as a result.  Would prefer not to have to deal with a TPV center over Hudson Bay again....hopefully we can get this to slide east over time.  

12/11:  .5"

1/6:  1.5"

1/15-16:  3.25

Season Total:  5.25"

Looks like a bit of blowing snow in the usual trouble spots later today and tonight.  Anyone who drives 340 to Fred knows what I'm talking about.

3.2"  Thrilled with that considering 48 hours ago I was thinking 1-2 was a realistic target for out this way.  Still leaves me hungry for more though.

Steady moderate snow.  Just measured 2.25"

Pushing an inch here. Steadier snow finally starting to accumulate. 24f perfect evening with a fire crackling...

What a beautiful forum wide pleaser!  Damn...

12 minutes ago, Heisy said:

My theory holds, those two pieces I mentioned were farther apart, hence a worst “snow” run. The runs that phases those waves quicker (like 00z euro) allowed spacing between the tpv and main shortwave and end better for us


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Agreed. Euro also brings our sw into the CA/OR border.  GFS has been consistent into Seattle. SW coming into the west coast further south and more phasing of the first system both allow for more separation.

1.35" so far.  Wind has really picked up in last 30 minutes.  Frequent gust 30+

A major SSWE is too much of a gamble imho.  The HLs are already primed for being blocky this winter and throwing in a major shake up could have undesirable results.  Id love to see the PV just get kicked in the stones a few times throughout the early-mid season.  Upping the ante for a decent stretch of chances for cold and snow in an overall blocked pattern. As soon as the GEFS backed away from the idea of a true split the LR now looks much better than yesterdays runs. Just my novice 2c. 

Just now, CAPE said:

What this?

A come to Papa look! 

Fantasy land material but here comes the west based block with a TPV trapped in a decent location. Not worth mentioning I guess but ens have been hinting at this. 

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 I see a -AO, -NAO,  and a ridge over AK. Pretty damn good HL look.

Yesterday's ext GEFS showing the more classic -NAO look in week 3+. Sorry if already posted. Nice to see those looks continue at the end of today's runs.

One worry to check off the list for the foreseeable future is any type of SPV recovery and consolidation over the pole.  This is a h384 plot but warming starts around D8.  GEFS have been consistent and pretty impressive for an ens mean.  This should go well with our -NAO in late Jan-Feb. 

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Just looking at the next 10-11 days, looks too warm for snow.  WB 18Z GEFS.  Maybe it will look different by the end of this week.  H5 maps may look perfect but it still has to be 32 or below.  I am not being pessimistic about winter, just suggest people look for some cold air being established first, then look for shortwaves.

Will, go on TT and look at the GEFS 850 anom from 6 days ago and compare to the current look.  It didn't do a bad job.  But the glaring difference between 6 days ago and now is why we track every sw as long as it takes a decent track.  

A sneaky high nosing in, a ns wave that wasnt modeled ushers in cold enough air etc... The hints of a transient 50/50 out at D10-11 can throw a wrench in that look if it gets some legs over the next few days.

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

If it plays out as currently pronged we’d need to time the N/S 50/50 perfectly with the meandering big ULL down south. This run we had some decent confluence setup for a bit. the airmass headed into the event is putrid. Think the main low is gonna take way too long though.

Even if this one misses/rain it gives me hope for Jan and Feb because we’re plenty of STJ influenced storms. Matter of time till we time something we’ll especially if we get -EPO


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Agreed that it just a matter of time and this is a great sign for winter in general.  But, the airmass is respectable...just no block to lock in the high.  Dews 12 hrs before precip are in the low 10s high single digits.  Just need to adjust timing on either feature and we have a decent thread the needle event.  Looks like 12z GEFS.

Compared to 6z, 12z GEFS show a nice step in the right direction for the 28-30th timeframe.  Obvious signs of a low coming out of the gulf and more of a HP signal to the north. Even bit of a CAD showing up.

15 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Noticed the canadian showing this. No support from the other models, but worth keeping an eye on. 

This is a very long shot due to lack of cold air, but last time we had a "long shot with not enough cold air" it snowed here and most people got 1-2".

No doubt a very long shot with this one.  But long shots are better than no shots especially with the LR look on the ens.  The ICON switched to this idea and the GFS to some extent as well.  Wait n see....

Monday is still changing.  Ji noted yesterday the possible interaction with a N stream piece that would offer cold enough air to support snow.  A long shot since the storm is on its exit as whatever cold is coming in.  But,  the 12z suite so far has introduced the idea that a secondary storm may form and have the time to interact.   I just keep thinking about how much the last storm changed on the models when we were in the 4-6 day timeframe.

21756

12/11 -.5"

Recorded .5" here but my house sets at a pretty low elevation along a creek.  Looks like a general 1-2" once you get above 6-700'.  If this airmass could have been just a respectable one...

33.7/32 Mod snow. Slushy accumulation on elevated surfaces.

Rain/snow mix. 36/34

Have a pretty consistent westerly component to the wind now.  55.6f at 4pm and 51.8 currently.