poolz1

Skillet cornbread just came out of the oven.

1.5" on the board. Mod snow - 19/14

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

this aged well.

Flake size increased the last 10 mins.  Mod snow.  Measuring will be impossible with the wind.  

That traffic cam out of McHenry shows the wind!  Whipping snow across the lake.  Great mountain storm...enjoy.

Low of 7.  Currently 9/4

Bar is set at 3" imby.  Beautiful storm with a crappy evolution. Looking at latest obs...Lower heights out front at 13z than the NAM has. 

Wow.... I have no clue what it takes for an eruption to actually affect weather patterns but that is some fascinating stuff.  Would the easterly shear in the strat be our -QBO showing up on sat?

42 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Like many of the rest of you, I’m looking past this weekend to what could be coming up next. That disturbance next Friday-Saturday on the GFS has been around in some form or another, and it’s started a little bit of a jog to the northwest. We see something hanging around on all other guidance, as well (CDS being the most ridiculous solution for now).

With the trend over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GFS continues moving that one to the northwest, with all guidance starting to converge by the time the upcoming joke is out of here.

Even being further NW I am looking for the next one.  Don't get me wrong I am looking forward to the thump because I enjoy all snow.  But I know this has 3-4" and a rapid changeover written all over it.  Even up here. (5 miles west of the BR)

00Z EPS increased its signal for this time period.  

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

EPS 500 track shifted east from 00z.  00z mean had the 500 low track over NW VA and 06z has it tracking through central VA to just east of DC.  I haven’t looked into the individual members but the takeaway for me is the 6z Euro and EPS seems to have stopped the westward push for now.

Thats my takeaway as well.  The H5 track noticeably east from the time it rounds the corner down south.  Hopefully these slight adjustments east continue today.

Obviously, everyone is looking for that first sign this will tick east.  Confluence to the NE, the diving energy on the backside of the storm but one other factor could be a weaker ULL in general.  The 06 eps shows this to be the case vs 00z.  The control shows it nicely...weaker ULL but same track produces a slp 30-40 east of 00z and doest hook back nearly as much.

Just blend the GFS and ICON....thats my in house ensemble.

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Just needs to dig further west so it doesn't get shredded by the low off the coast.

And the fact that it is speeding up each run isn't helping us either. So much potential if it just had room to breathe..

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

 

It was looking good, but just did not go negative in time. NC does well

 

Yeah,  the changes on the ATL side were the first positive move in several runs.  Still a ways to go for this to go negative and be our storm. 

That is one heck of a piece of NS energy on the GFS.  Confluent flow slightly relaxed...Dont know if it will make it this run but a positive move, imo.

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I thought this Friday would be too soon, but WB 12Z to 18Z EPS interesting shift, let’s see if the trend continues…

As long as it doesn't real us in and turn into another Boxin....

42 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

I've taken a few hard falls from refreezing water.

You're walking fine and all in a sudden you're down on the ground, back of the head bleeding and all cut up from the edge of the gravel in the tar and chip road.  It's literally like the feeling of a whip pulling your feet out from under you and bam!  And when you get over 50 the risk of concussion is real.

The other type is where you're well aware of the ice, see it, step on it and feel your shoes/boots sliding but you're confident that you can do it.  Then the sliding starts and sometimes you luck out and can grab something like a railing or car.  Or if not so lucky you start a sort of dance on skis thing that can wind up really ugly.

It really looks funny seeing it and its hard not to laugh for sure but people tend to get hurt when this happens.

Number three (guy on driveway) I've done before and the grass is definitely way to go!

 

Lol...they interviewed the couple that fell down their steps.  That should be funnier than the video itself.  "We want you for an exclusive zoom interview about how you fell down on your arse."  Hard up for content I guess?

38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs ain’t exactly locked in on the system at the end of the week.

Was just going to post....Went from a south ATL low north of the Bahamas to a coastal NE snowstorm.  Just a wag, but there will likely be some slight adjustment in the coming days.

18z GFS was close to a repeat of the 12z run for late in the period.  Too much squish this run but the phase tried!

12z eps had a few nice signals. Including a beaut for the 12z gfs' timeframe...

Just now, Chris78 said:

Only 22" for me. Fringed. 

Hey, plenty of time to pull this north!  

winds gusting 40+ at DCA.  A true blizzard verbatim...

Mid afternoon death band raging.....temps upper teens.  

21 minutes ago, jayyy said:

6” IMBY in Union bridge 

5” - my brothers house in Ellicott city 

6.5” - my parents house in Rockland NY

8” - my brothers house in Rye NY

12”- my buddy in Dorchester MA

Rather large area of 5-12” from VA to MA. Successful storm, no doubt. 

Hey...I have family in Rye NH!  Small place but beautiful New England beach town.  Been visiting my cousins there around July 4th every year since I was a kid. 

ETA: Never mind! I see its NY you have family. lol  

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=LWX

Thanks for this...  6.6" reported about 3 miles to my N.....makes me feel better about my 6.2 measurement here. 

6.2" on the ground .41" liquid.  22/15 with a gusty NW wind.

Definitely exceeded my expectations.  .41" liquid is on the very high side of any model run for mby.

4.5" and currently lake effect style dendrites.  I can see the back edge of the best dynamics approaching but currently it is a fog outside.

2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Maximum fluff factor with this one.  With no wind, have had some really large agglomerates here for most of the event.

Even so, pretty sure I’ll end up with more  liquid than any model’s forecasted QPF.

 Good point.   I wonder if models factor wind into their Kutchera outputs?

3 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Interested to see that myself.  Have two 4” gauges in different spots in the yard.  I’ll post the LE when it ends.

Agreed.  I honestly was scratching my head on my latest measurement.  1.25" in 45 min.  Don't get me wrong, it is coming down nicely but I have seen heavier snow.

9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice ! Probably 1" /hour here currently best guess 

Flake size definitely has changed outside of that band.  But, like most storms in their height, the radar doesn't do it justice.  Just ripping smaller flakes now.  Probably the heaviest snow of the event right now.

Absolutely pouring snow now....A classic banding with subsidence in between currently in the NW zones.  

1.2 on the snow board.  Surprised honestly....it is snowing at a good clip but not crazy.  Must be some good ratios occurring.