poolz1

+PNA

Looks like a possible relaxation of the PAC jet as we near mid month on the ens.  I guess time will tell if this actually holds as we get closer.  There is certainly a tendency for HLB of some sort and combined with a favorable PAC could lead to a window of opportunity as we close out Nov.  Obviously, a front loaded winter has been touted. 

This would be a decent sign that HLB may be a mainstay this early winter season.. With punches already being thrown at the PV this would just continue the assault after a brief recovery.

47 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'd guess somewhere around 50 inches would be the max, maybe a little less. A lot of people have seen 36-40 just west of the cities.

That amount was my thought exactly.  4-5" qpf.  Some of the factors that give us our biggest totals are a hindrance to Sierra style snows.  We need a constant moisture fetch but too long of a duration will usually wreck the mids resulting in epic meltdowns.  Occlusion will happen at some point and shut down the death band. A lack of significant orographic lift if we are talking just around 95.  No other body of water to offer additional enhancement. 

55 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Doesn't this show more prevalent MJO phases 3-5 in Nina with -QBO (like we have now)?  Those are pretty crappy phases for us...We want 8-1-2 in winter.  Phase 3 can be good in March IIRC.  

It does...but I guess the positive takeaway, imo,  is it shows a good signal for a progressive mjo.  Hence, windows of opportunity.

Not a lot of great signals in general for this winter.  Im just looking for signs of something that will buck the system (best case scenario) or at least a sign that the classic nina pattern could have interruptions.

I have no clue and no expectations.

Interesting thread regarding the MJO.  If something similar plays out this winter we should at least see windows of opportunity.

2.86"

Yesterday evening felt just like a tropical system heading north to the west of us.  Muggy, clouds racing out of the SSE, wind would pick up with any mod/hvy downpour...etc.

Not sure if this one has been posted?  It is one of the wildest videos I have seen....sound up!  The view of the exiting tornado after the home owner comes upstairs is just surreal.

Just absolutely torrential for the past hour. Zero wind... Just a still, humid, tropical downpour.

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I would think the Potomac is going to have one heck of a crest.  Forecast is already for major flood stage through the Washington Co gauges and 26'+ at Point of Rocks.

7 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Miller A or Miller B?  

I'll be home in case the creek decides to encroach on us so.....more like Miller time.

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That's what I mean though. Maybe I'm reading your post incorrectly, but you seem to be referring to QPF though your image reflects PWATS.

Just trying to clarify...

Ahhh...my bad.  Yes, seeing a 3"+ Pwat print out was the point of my post.  No too often seen in these parts.  Effective tropical rainers...

16 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That assumes that PWATS = precip.

I didnt assume. At least according to the euro...that frame is pretty much areawide precip.

3"+ in spots when the center is passing by...torrential.  Also noticed that the euro is slower to get out of here and has a similar evolution as the ICON.  GFS is the most progressive in the bunch now.  

We are not the bullseye on the models but its a razor's edge....especially for N MD.  There is likely to be additional qpf maxes locally.  Look at what the models were printing out for Henri.  Western CT --> NYC bullseye...in reality, NYC --> C NJ.  With the center passing through our area I would not write off significant impacts just yet.

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I just commented in the Tropical thread that there is trash floating by now.  I'm amazed that the feed is staying up.

Me too...I really thought it would be down by now.  I just saw a cooler float by and then get plucked out of the water by the wind. It shot off frame like a bullet. 

Insanity!

https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html

Its a good start.... An expansive area of torrential tropical rains with embedded sever would be ideal.  Lets move this a little south and see some oranges popping up.

Looks to be a wild ride shaping up.  Would really like to get in on some local impacts...

Yeah, at least it was a cooler overcast to go with the mega humid.  Now we add Aug sun to the mix.  Weeeee...

A little too far west here to get in on the good action that is firing up.  Sun is coming out and its mega humid... Hoping we get another round later this afternoon. 

Big thanks to @wxtrix for the inspiration.  Probably went a little heavier on the parm and went with two layers of tomatoes.  Basil flowers for garnish...outstanding dish!  The whole family really enjoyed it.  

Served with grilled marinated beef, onions, peppers and zucchini skewers along with grilled rosemary potatoes.  All veggies and herbs from the garden....minus the garlic.

1 hour ago, wxtrix said:

have y'all stopped cooking?

last week I saw an interesting recipe for a tomato tart that i decided to make but without a crust since I wanted something easy. the bottom layer is smooth dijon mustard, shredded or shaved hard cheese (here shredded parmesan since I didn't have a whole piece on hand to shave), and a paste of basil/garlic/olive oil. it smelled incredible as it was cooking, too.

 

 

 

 

Looks fantastic...we are overloaded with tomatoes right now and Ive run out of ideas.  Will certainly give this a try.  The dijon probably gives that a nice kick... I am curious how it would taste if the same layers were placed on a toasted baguette?

Found one a few years ago in a large bush beside our walkway to our front door. We walked past that basketball sized nest for weeks and did even notice. Just by chance, the nest was at a perfect height for the hood of my truck!  I popped the hood, gently placed a pole under the hood and stabbed that thing. Cutting the wheels and tearing it apart....all while watching the chaos from the safety of the driver's seat. It was a sight watching them attack the truck.  Maybe beer was involved...lol  

Not the smartest way to handle the situation but hey....not one bee killed and 24 hours later that bush was a hornet ghost town.

Finding cucumber beetles, squash bugs and squash bug eggs this morning.  The battle has started.  Trying to keep a regular spray of neem oil going this year.  This, along with killing what I can see and removing eggs I hope to keep damage to a minimum.  

Any other methods out there for organic gardening?  Japanese beetles are more prolific this year than years past.  Doing a number on our strawberry patch.