Boston Bulldog

Across snow starved SE New England, this system has played with the heart strings of disillusioned snow enthusiasts. An incredible longwave setup with a less than ideal shortwave configuration. Late night celebrations at big NW ticks, deep late morning depression at 12z regressions. Frequent NAMings (another one might be underway right now). The SREFs have made an appearance (forgot those existed). The “coastal” low has even been depicted as far east as the Flemish Cap in recent days… and yet here we are with some hope for a Christmas surprise. The tracking has been brutal, and the potential payout for many is likely to be questionable to say the least. Despite all this, many are still in the game for 1-3” according to BOX, with some model depictions illustrating higher potential for eastern zones. Hoping to spark some good juju and break out the nowcast from the angsty cesspool the discussion thread has been over the past week. At the minimum it will likely be festive for some in the days leading up to Christmas, a vast improvement from recent years! Also congrats Hazey

Festive OES flakes and 33 south of Ponkapoag in Canton. @HimoorWx and I generally benefit off of improved elevation in these marginal setups, hoping that is the case again

Every tick counts in the upper levels. The more you can buckle the flow downstream of the trough axis, the more the baroclinic leaf can develop to the NW. While the actual SLP doesn't trend a ton from 18z to 0z, the precip shield is definitely more expansive

Angel on one shoulder telling me it's just the NAM, don't look too deep into it. Devil (weenie?) on the other shoulder telling me to go all in on this trend because we have better sampling now....

Negative trough at 84 hours. That’s a substantial change

Hazey bomb

Looks like the trough on 6z GFS actually trended a bit better than 0z, but the SLP development and evolution is significantly more realistic than at 0z. No spurious convective mass modifying the surface evolution

I wish that is the case! Idk, this configuration just doesn't scream cyclogenesis close to NC. We need a sharper and deeper trough. And we need that to trend quickly. Decent move from 18z I guess

I have a few caution flags on the improved 0z GFS run. Watch where the SLP develops - it congeals on some spurious convection that forms off of FL, helping shunt the ocean storm a bit NW Sure the upper level changes are there, but I don't think they support such a substantial shift without the convective feedback

Slight tick better at upper levels. We should know by 12z tomorrow if this is the start of a trend back or just noise. Probably the latter?

Yeah sure GFS blew at 0z. You never see a coastal bomb show up every single run for days on end. Synoptic errors are so huge at this juncture, but at least there is persistence surrounding a *threat*. The signal continues to grow stronger. Even 0z keeps all the necessary pieces on the playing field, that’s all I need right now

Classic upslope blower pow! Really impressive stuff out of Mount Mansfield. It wasn’t nearly as deep farther south at MRG, but still some great (albeit thin cover) powder in the upper elevations. Frozen mud on the pole tips means low tide! Not sure if the natural snow at Sugarbush would’ve held up on most trails for a busy weekend crowd.

Absolutely firing at MRG right now. 6+ easily up high overnight and still dumping.

This little impulse has scaled up slowly in recent days. The MRV area is really lighting up right now, perhaps a little consolation after missing out on last night’s bonanza north of I-89

Upslope starting to blossom over the spine again. What a stretch!

Yep Margavage. His “white thanksgiving” model was laughable. Ripped the accuweather product verbatim and modified the colorbar labels.

Highly recommend just ignoring the CFS when forecasting storms. In addition to its resolution issues with synoptic events, there is one notorious “met” who uses it frequently on Twitter. Betting against his constant “cold and snow” calls would be more profitable than betting against Jim Cramer’s stock picks

With this incoming storm likely to drop 8-12" (and potentially more), it looks like woods skiing will be game on for northern VT on the first weekend of December. Very quietly the NNE mountain snowpack has gotten off to a great early start (what happened mid-december last year was criminal). Jay looks ready to drop ropes on everything, insane stuff up there. I keep thinking back to the sleeper powder day along the spine in late November last year, keep an eye out on this Friday.

Looks like a Champlain enhanced snowband has been hitting the App gap and Camels Hump area pretty hard this evening. Sneaky little disturbance tonight ahead of the main clipper has been enhancing upslope production. These unstable upper level arctic troughs sometimes don't deliver down south, but the mountains will always find ways to cash in.

Game on in Central NH if you’re willing to work for it

The ML reacharound seems to be going poof over SVT. While dynamics are waning overhead, I suspect some of this is due to distance from the radar beam. I think we have a bit more juice before things end. Eyeballing 7-8” in Sunapee, power flickering constantly over the past few hours. Impressive November event at 1100’

Yep, big slug of moisture gearing up near Albany. Probably another 2-4” if that holds together

Yep, expecting it to take on a SW to NE alignment as H7 low matures. Anywhere SE of where it sets up may have some subsidence issues and a more showery radar. The swath of posters we have from Sullivan through Merrimack counties are going to have a close shave

700mb fronto band starting to take shape. Looking at radar now, it might be curling a bit SW through Vermont back towards the capital region.

Similar conditions to your west, radar looks great with additional banding pivoting in from the south. Probably around 3” here