FXWX

Count not agree with you more. Folks instantly make a jump to "there is no way this is happening or show me a model that calls for a region-wide blizzard" when the statement is just about how meteorologically close this is to a remember-able bomb event! Will it happen, probably not and yes eastern areas are closer to trouble than western areas, but the atmospheric setup is only a hair off from being a truly wild event. Again, I am not calling for it, but I can certainly appreciate the closeness of the pattern to a nasty event.

No doubt! As much as I am ready for spring, that type of setup with the potency of the upper dynamics & the nature of that air mass would have me saying, "ok, lets go out with a true bang!"

Yep; angle of attack into southeast Canada and the westerly component does indeed suggest it will not hang around; big 24-hour flip if the cold does make it into parts of nrn New England; particularly Maine. Would be more interesting if the modeled flow was displaced ~300-500 miles to the west?

Regardless of how the storm issues do or do not play out, those are 2 very nasty late season cold slugs coming into southeastern Canada this upcoming weekend and then again the middle of next week...

Details always need to be worked out; but you had the guts to start a thread!

Nice call / heads-up on this event Wiz...

Yup! Balloon launch at 11 z / 23 z during DST works for me! lol

Would not be at all surprised if that is the case; in fact I would expect it. Although a popularity poll doesn't mean it is the right thing to do?

Agree 110%... It will lead to a big push back from school districts and parents. I'm perfectly fine with the status quo... To be honest, I hate the thought of 2 pm for the Euro release; many of my wintertime school updates need to be fully out by 2 pm and I always want to get a at least a quick peak at the Euro before updating evening / overnight periods. By the time DST kicks in now during early/mid March winter forecasting stress is usually starting to wane so I can live with the current flip to DST but would hate it for the NOV-FEB period.

I will tell you right now, if we go DST year round it will lead to several additional late openings school decisions a year across portions of SNE. One thing that is frequently assessed in predawn conversations with superintendents is when is sunrise and when will it be bright enough to see clearly along the sides of roads & corners during ongoing clean-up post storm periods. While some high school pick-up times during EST are during solidly dark times, DST would put middle and elementary students into the dark mix???

I've been involved with this end of forecasting for 30+ years and things have certainly changed. But there are a multitude of factors in play now (input from DPW/Police/Politicians/Bus companies/insurance companies/tons of student drivers & PARENTS) that make it an easier and quicker call by superintendents. I do not know of a superintendent that wants to cancel school; but you have no idea about the conversations that go on from all the entities list above. It is almost always a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation.

Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing... If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening. With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work. Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot...

Where is the omega profile located in the clickable sounding?