WxWatcher007

Hint of it on the Euro too. Given the overall pattern, any MDR stuff is getting kicked. If there are going to be any other US impacts, it'll come from a homebrew system IMO. Probably will be good for one to three between now and October 20.

Final approach. Not worth hitting the road for this one, but best of luck to all the Mainers and Nova Scotia peeps.

This is so good. Many of these factors are in my head whenever I’m chasing.

Expected to become the fourth major of the season. Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152023 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2023 1-min GOES-East visible imagery indicates improved organization of Invest 97, with a well-defined surface center forming since sunrise, along with large curved banding features. Thus the system is designated as a tropical depression, and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, in closest agreement with the TAFB Dvorak classification. Our estimate of initial motion is northwestward at 10 kt, though this is uncertain due to the recent center formation. A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should be the dominant steering mechanism during the next several days, sending the system on a steady northwestward track. For a first forecast, guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the official forecast lies near or west of the model consensus. Despite the good model agreement, there is still some long-range uncertainty in how far west this system moves, which partially depends on the strength of the subtropical ridge in the wake of Tropical Storm Margot. The depression is forecast to gradually intensify over the next couple of days as moderate northeasterly shear and the initial broad cyclone structure could provide a check on the intensification rate. By early next week, this system is forecast to move over near record warm sea-surface temperatures for the region in light shear conditions. It probably sounds like a broken record at this point in the season, but rapid intensification is a significant possibility, and the official forecast could be conservative below. The intensity forecast is near or above the intensity consensus, only leveling off at 120 hours due to gradual SST cooling and the possibility of eyewall replacement cycles, as suggested by the HAFS model suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.4N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.5N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.2N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.9N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.5N 49.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 22.0N 51.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 23.4N 52.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 26.0N 56.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 29.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Churchill/Blake/Lamers

I don’t think the Niño will stick around enough to disrupt next year. I don’t like going super long range, but next year looks…not good… It’s just one of those exceptionally active periods in the basin. It took a third year Nina to slow down last year and that was a low grade speed bump.

Yup, USWNT

We may be falling back in basketball and soccer, but Team USA tropical forecasting has come a long way. GFS needed a win after Idalia.

Not sure I will chase this one. Not really feeling it.

That is pretty nice.

I’ll readily admit that it didn’t stay super high end as I originally thought in terms of peak wind, but I don’t think this one disappointed. I never bought into the 900mb model runs. There was a highly unusual signal for an exceptionally strong storm and that did happen, and the RI was on par with some of the greats in the basin. The magnitude of shear was generally missed by the models, which speaks to how hard intensity forecasting is, but it was still a long track MDR major, something that’s been hard despite the incredibly active period we’ve seen. Rather than contracting the core and returning to its peak wind, the perpetual ERCs forced energy into expanding its wind field, which is top four all time and up there in IKE. That’s very hard to do IMO. On par with becoming a 5, which it had already accomplished. I know everyone loves the pretty buzzsaws and I do too, but this is an all-timer to me in its own right. Hitting a less populated area at the end of its life cycle will hurt its historical legacy.

I probably missed the window to reseed now that we’re back to dry

There has been another strong signal for a long track MDR hurricane, and we’re starting to see TC genesis in the basin again. Advisories are likely later today and 97L will almost certainly become Nigel this week. While everything else has bucked Niño climo this season, the prevalence of troughing/weak ridging to provide for MDR recurves has not. Future Nigel is likely only an interest to Bermuda. Discuss. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Lee, located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on Hurricane Margot, located over the central Atlantic. 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have increased and become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Brown

Should still be plenty impactful for Maine and NS.

Hope you’re ok

Not just about foliage, which is spectacular. September has high end tropical in the basin. October has homebrew and a more pronounced step down in temperature. In late September through part of October there’s a period where normal weather is literally perfect—not too hot or cold, not too wet or dry. Then you transition to the occasional coastal storm as the days get shorter late October into November. It’s a fantastic season. As I’ve grown to loathe winter (tracking) I love and embrace fall even more.

I like that into about mid-October, but I want the step down. A normal fall progression would be fine with me.

Nothing like it, prepare to be soaked though lol It slid east, and it happens. A lot. Best of luck to the Mainers and Canadians. This has been my best peak season forecast yet. With Nigel coming (hopefully not a MH lol) and then a possible break after the 20th, I’m spot on so far. MDR may stay frisky though if the wave train doesn’t slow down as much as anticipated. I think we turn to an abbreviated homebrew and hybrid season in October.

I’m with @RUNNAWAYICEBERG this morning. Boring is fine. Fall is the best time of year IMO, and having some days where you can actually be outside and enjoy the “Goldilocks zone” without thinking about wx isn’t necessarily a bad thing. When the late season homebrew threat for the Gulf or October nor’easter that blasts the Cape comes along I’ll be ready. Until then, we embrace the epic beauty of seasonal transition.

The temporary slowdown is mildly interesting to me and I can't really understand why Lee has held onto concentric eyewalls for days without ever really completing an ERC, but there's nothing new. Just posting information. Ryan pointed to this the other day, but I also don't know why their 34 & 50kt probabilities don't work as well given the fact that by the time any system gets up here it's almost always larger than in the tropics. You'd think that would be accounted for, even if a storm is in the 90th percentile of size. Edit: The track stuff is whatever to me at this point. I just like watching the progression of these systems, especially as they go ET, and how impactful they end up being and why.

Exactly. For what not to believe in.

Avert your eyes if you're one of those spending your time in here telling others it's a waste of time to spend their time in here Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023 Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Lee this evening. They found that the central pressure has not changed much since earlier today, and that the hurricane still had concentric eyewalls, but these were partially open over portions of the western quadrant. The Air Force plane measured 700 mb flight-level winds as high as 105 kt and the NOAA plane found winds as high as 107 kt at a flight level of 8000 ft. Tail Doppler radar velocities from the NOAA plane were near 100 kt at elevations of 0.5 km. These observations support maintaining the intensity at 90 kt for this advisory. Satellite imagery also suggests that the eyewall is not fully closed but there is fairly intense inner-core convection. There has been a (likely temporary) decrease in forward speed and the initial motion is just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The steering scenario for the hurricane is essentially unchanged from the previous few advisories. A 500-mb trough moving into the northeastern U.S. and a mid-level ridge near eastern Atlantic Canada should cause Lee to move generally northward at a faster forward speed during the next couple of days. A slight bend to the left is likely around 48 hours while the tropical cyclone interacts with the trough. This will likely bring the center of Lee close to southeastern New England late Friday before it moves near or over Maine and Atlantic Canada later in the weekend. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and closely follows both the simple and corrected dynamical consensus guidance. Over the next couple of days, Lee will encounter significantly increasing vertical wind shear and somewhat drier mid- to low-level air. Sea surface temperatures along the projected track decrease sharply north of around 40N latitude. These conditions should cause weakening, but since the hurricane has such a large circulation, the weakening will likely be slow. The NHC intensity forecast is near or above the highest available model guidance. Notwithstanding, there is still high confidence that Lee will be a large and dangerous cyclone when it moves near or over land on Saturday. It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are expected to impact Bermuda beginning early Thursday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island. 2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that area. Heavy rainfall in these areas may produce localized urban and small stream flooding from Friday night into Saturday night. 3. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch has been issued. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible over a large portion of coastal New England, including Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, Block Island, and portions of Atlantic Canada, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 28.0N 67.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 29.6N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 31.9N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 34.8N 67.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 37.7N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 41.0N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 44.0N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 49.4N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 19/0000Z 53.7N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Three months too early. Atmospheric memory setting up though. Congrats @dryslot & @tamarack.

October ‘21 was as good as it gets.