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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    @Moderately Unstable
  2. WxWatcher007
    I’ve noticed it, but I’m a little skeptical something tropical gets going before conditions become more unfavorable. That said, given where we are with this peak—anything spinning has a chance right now.
  3. WxWatcher007
  4. WxWatcher007
    Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 15 (8) Hurricanes: 10 (6) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) Francine (H), Gordon, Helene (MH), Isaac (H), Joyce, Kirk (MH), Leslie (H), Milton (H)
  5. WxWatcher007
    And from experience, those 10-20 miles may not be known until hours before landfall. That’s why it’s so important for everyone to be prepared along the potential landfall zone.
  6. WxWatcher007
    989mb with a closed eye and peak FL winds of 75kts on the VDM. I think that’s enough for an upgrade assuming the NE side is stronger but we’ll see.
  7. WxWatcher007
    Recon just passed an area of FL winds between 65-75kts. Hasn’t reached the center yet but should have data in the next ten minutes.
  8. WxWatcher007
    Recon looks like its first pass will be from SE to NW. I kind of expect this to be near hurricane intensity given the satellite and earlier recon trends we saw but we’ll see.
  9. WxWatcher007
    The lid is off and as long as it is we should pay closer attention to any seedling in the western Atlantic and Caribbean.
  10. WxWatcher007
    I’m still far from sold, but the GFS has done well sniffing out CAG/western Caribbean stuff and it would continue the theme of the lid being off. There is a little EPS support from what I saw too this morning.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Latest recon is en route and should be in the storm soon.
  12. WxWatcher007
    The final VDM of the recon mission reports a circular eye that’s open in the SW. Diameter of 20nm.
  13. WxWatcher007
    Low of 40.1° here in EH.
  14. WxWatcher007
  15. WxWatcher007
    48 hours for a watch and 36 hours for a warning. They do issue inland watches/warnings. For Helene there were TS warnings all the way to western NC. Don’t know when Orlando was last under a hurricane warning but given the current track forecast it looks like this could be a hurricane across the peninsula. Watches are likely at some point today since TS conditions are likely by Tuesday.
  16. WxWatcher007
    For our FL crew.
  17. WxWatcher007
    Fantasy for now.
  18. WxWatcher007
  19. WxWatcher007
    That kind of structure tends to foreshadow more significant to rapid intensification, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle. You do still need deep convection over the center and wrapping around to build a true inner core. It’s not a linear process, and as we see time and again the organizational phase often happens in fits and starts. Recon tomorrow will give us a much better sense of how organized it is and critically, more detail on the environment around the system. Night, everyone.
  20. WxWatcher007
    Want to keep highlighting the rainfall threat further inland. Someone away from the center track is likely to have significant issues with freshwater flooding.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Too high as in too high with central pressure? The GFS and Euro were about in lock step inside 48h with a landfall pressure in the 950s. But globals are almost always higher for strong hurricanes than reality. Aside from that, I think what’s telling here is that the GFS went from very weak to in line with the more aggressive Euro and its ensembles.
  22. WxWatcher007
    You did a phenomenal job in the lead chair. Glad you can get some rest before this next one.
  23. WxWatcher007
    This increasingly looks like a high impact event along the track across the peninsula. Some of the rainfall totals in north central and NE FL are significant and the NHC track suggests significant winds will be a possibility inland too.
  24. WxWatcher007
    Nope. It’d be a ripe candidate but the TC force field is strong this fall in our neck of the woods.
  25. WxWatcher007
    @40/70 Benchmark we’ve seen a lot of close calls and false alarms over the years, and this one is still far from settled…but this looks as close to “the one” for Tampa as I’ve seen since Charley. Look at the TC report from Josephine in the 90s. Nine feet of surge north of Tampa and 4-6’ near the Bay.
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