WxWatcher007

It’s still taking its time to intensify, as we can see with the wind field, despite the clear organization trend. No rapid intensification for now. IMO the delay only further diminishes the already low chance that an ERC would take place close to landfall.

It took a bit of a hit but it’s certainly looking more robust on IR the further away from the coast it get. Once it aligns it’ll be off to the races.

Spaghetti charts just because Increasing likelihood of a good rain event inland from this.

I started out with a PTC, then went to a weak TS, strong TS, hurricanes and then the major last year. Starting with the weaker stuff allowed me to compare notes and learn from mistakes, which made my higher end chases safer and cheaper. I still will chase strong TSs like Isaias last year and Elsa/Henri this year if they are close and have a significant chance of being a hurricane at landfall (Elsa and Henri had hurricane warnings but fell short). Otherwise it is hurricane or no go at this point for me.

So much can go wrong, all in a split second. It sounds counterintuitive since you're doing something most people find crazy lol, but in any chase and especially a high end chase you cannot bring someone that doesn't have good judgement and excellent risk assessment ability. Most people don't fit that bill let alone kids.

Yes. There's no way I'd bring children to a hurricane chase but what do I know.

Maximum Sustained Wind Overall (mph): 135 mph Maximum Sustained Wind at Landfall (mph): 135 mph Pressure at Landfall (mb): 940mb Landfall Location: Due S of Morgan City at Atchafalaya Bay

I suck at putting together contests but this should be straightforward lol--predict what Ida will do in four different categories. Closest forecast in each category will be the winner. The deadline is 12pm EST Saturday. Edits can be made in posts until that time. Maximum Sustained Wind Overall (mph): Maximum Sustained Wind at Landfall (mph): Pressure at Landfall (mb): Landfall Location:

They cannot. There's the issue of getting permission to enter airspace but more important, (edit: low level recon) over land is more dangerous.

Hey--I said it in the other thread over in the tropical subforum but IMO I wouldn't take kids for a trip like this (and I wouldn't recommend you go), especially if it's essentially everyone's first hurricane chase. Majors are a whole different breed and this close to landfall (not sure when you'd be planning to go) it's going to be chaotic in the region. Depending on how close you are to the center and coast you may have to deal with water (most dangerous generally) as well as wind. All that said above, for me there are two things I'm looking for in a hotel: First, is it in a flood prone area. If it is, that can be problematic even if inland because a lot of rain could cause flooding that could 1) impact your car i.e. escape route and 2) cut off your escape route/exit after the storm. I picked the perfect location in Florence and even then the flooding forced me to stay in NC longer than anticipated. Had I not done my research I would have been fine personally but would have lost the car. Second, I try to look for newer places that are likely to be covered by newer building codes, and places like hotels that are going to have interior locations to shelter in place. Inns and motels are generally a no go for me because they don't really have that. I closely examine interior and exterior pictures, as well as the surrounding area. You will do what you do but I cannot emphasize enough how critically important it is to do your research. Chasing a hurricane is inherently dangerous, even away from the coast. I literally spend days tracking guidance, researching locations, escape routes, possible travel itineraries, and local conditions like evacuation chatter and contraflow plans. There's a lot that goes into it.

Definitely wouldn’t take my (hypothetical) kids on a cane chase. Now SNOW is another story.

I think it’s just the wind, not the pressure drop. That’s about as high as you’ll ever see. Very impressive.

This. Homebrew is almost always the way to go. Give me something that pops in the central Caribbean and gets rocketed north. That’s just how it goes. Major landfalling EC hurricanes are hard.

One year ago

Always better to chase at home Unless it’s an EF-4 or Category 4

Been so busy I haven’t been able to follow closely. This is like my busiest weekend of the year

Unfortunately I have a horribly timed family obligation I can’t get out of. It happens. If you get a rental and the car gets trashed, it’s a bad trip. Hasn’t happened to me yet (knocks wood) but the closest I came was Florence when my hotel was surrounded by water. That said, because I planned ahead and was in a good spot, it was never really in danger. This is not directed at you but I’ve seen some posts here about chasing from what seem to be newbies and I’d just say chasing isn’t a getaway or low stress endeavor. It’s an extraordinary amount of work (if you’re doing it right) and can be very dangerous. I’d strongly advise any first timer to start with something less intense unless they plan to be much further inland where impacts will be reduced.

That’s the only PV I recognize since there’s no such thing as winter on the east coast anymore

Guidance has been consistent, that’s for sure. GFS is a touch slower verbatim with a 951mb hurricane just before a Louisiana landfall Sunday afternoon.

This system may very well fall short of expectations and I hope it does, but this is about as blaring a signal as you will ever see for a major hurricane landfall, in a place that was battered by multiple hurricane landfalls last year. Between that and there being very little time to prepare, you gotta saturate all lines of communication to get people to pay attention.

Just look at this. Absolutely absurd. This is what I meant when I said TCHP can compensate for a lesser extent of warm SSTs in the Atlantic.

Looks like it could be really bad there.

Good thing I got my forecast out last night Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown