WxWatcher007

Some of those waves on TWC at Montauk earlier were unreal.

I thought it had enough time to get it together and make a run at higher end 1 before weakening on final approach, but longer lasting mid shear and dry air never allowed it to get going.

Rains look big time. Coastal flooding looks legit. No matter what happens with wind or landfall spot I'm glad I hammered hydro home.

There's been an eye for the better part of the day. Having an eye isn't the issue IMO. The issue is wrapping convection completely around the eye consistently enough to allow for the engine to rev. Hasn't happened up to this point and I don't know why things would be much different as it passes the GS. Maybe it'll get it done here but kind of late in the game. Yeah, I guess so. My call has been made so whatever happens happens. It's on radar now so I'm in chips fall i.e. mode.

Yeah. I really mean this part

Also interesting to me that they seem to totally discount the GFS and Euro taking this further west over New England before turning east.

I acknowledge my bias since I forecasted a LF further west, but it seems odd to me that they mention going east again and said this: A turn toward the north-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between 18-24 h. With the more eastward initial position, the forecast track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast. However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as several of the guidance models are to the left of the official forecast.

Yep. Just never pulled it together. Been the most likely outcome since that shear almost gutted it, but I am still impressed by how it held on.

Noticed that too, but be careful extrapolating too far out. These things have a tendency to wobble back and forth. I've been following. Big rains there. Downright tropical downpours, no pun intended. Too little too late IMO. It may intensify a little but to me it's just a question of whether it can be steady state enough to not fall apart on final approach.

Final call. Still expecting a multi-hazard high impact event in CT, with flooding potential the headline. https://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/high-impact-event-expected-in-connecticut-as-hurricane-henri-is-poised-to-make-direct-impact

Ummm Time for me to delete my FB

Kinda related but it is absolutely dumping in the NYC area from that IVT/quasi-PRE

Unflagged 66kt SFMR on this latest pass NW to SE. SE has consistently been the strongest part of the storm. Edit: along with 73kt FL winds.

I posted the first call yesterday. I will post the final once I write it. Haven't been able to sit down and write yet.

So I guess this is what we talk about in between model runs during the summer

This. And given the fact that Henri has always had a broad wind field it's possible we see pressure drops and just have a broader wind field rather than more intense center.

I wonder what they will find on the NW to SE pass. The SE side has consistently had the strongest FL and surface winds. Wind field does good better generally from what I see so far. That October storm was one of the most incredible things I've ever seen. I was lucky to never lose power, but people just a few blocks over lost it for ten days.

I hear ya. I don't think a lot of people trust them to be prepared.

984.0 mb extrapolated on that recon pass.

Thing is we've had so many big extended power outages you can't blame us if we have a lot of concerns with that. Eversource is already priming us to get ready for another round depending on how bad this is.

He's out in Utah now, but we still collaborate at SCW. I know I probably talk about wind too much to some but I hit hydro hard last night in the first call and hitting it even harder tonight in the final. That's always been my biggest concern.

Oh man, how could I forget. Good times. Bun me good sir.

God rest his soul. No I'm not. Just pointing to the possibility that there's enough of an inner core to organize at a faster clip. I don't think that's too far out there as virtually all the guidance has some deepening over the next few hours. I'm not calling for a 2 or 3 lol.

I knew I'd get a weenie for that post