WxWatcher007

Definitely wouldn’t take my (hypothetical) kids on a cane chase. Now SNOW is another story.

I think it’s just the wind, not the pressure drop. That’s about as high as you’ll ever see. Very impressive.

This. Homebrew is almost always the way to go. Give me something that pops in the central Caribbean and gets rocketed north. That’s just how it goes. Major landfalling EC hurricanes are hard.

One year ago

Always better to chase at home Unless it’s an EF-4 or Category 4

Been so busy I haven’t been able to follow closely. This is like my busiest weekend of the year

Unfortunately I have a horribly timed family obligation I can’t get out of. It happens. If you get a rental and the car gets trashed, it’s a bad trip. Hasn’t happened to me yet (knocks wood) but the closest I came was Florence when my hotel was surrounded by water. That said, because I planned ahead and was in a good spot, it was never really in danger. This is not directed at you but I’ve seen some posts here about chasing from what seem to be newbies and I’d just say chasing isn’t a getaway or low stress endeavor. It’s an extraordinary amount of work (if you’re doing it right) and can be very dangerous. I’d strongly advise any first timer to start with something less intense unless they plan to be much further inland where impacts will be reduced.

That’s the only PV I recognize since there’s no such thing as winter on the east coast anymore

Guidance has been consistent, that’s for sure. GFS is a touch slower verbatim with a 951mb hurricane just before a Louisiana landfall Sunday afternoon.

This system may very well fall short of expectations and I hope it does, but this is about as blaring a signal as you will ever see for a major hurricane landfall, in a place that was battered by multiple hurricane landfalls last year. Between that and there being very little time to prepare, you gotta saturate all lines of communication to get people to pay attention.

Just look at this. Absolutely absurd. This is what I meant when I said TCHP can compensate for a lesser extent of warm SSTs in the Atlantic.

Looks like it could be really bad there.

Good thing I got my forecast out last night Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM... Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown

Maybe one day we’ll end up at the same hotel I’m as locked in as you can get when I’m on the hunt. No time for social calls lol.

I cleared the calendar and was looking at flights and hotels, but this one may be 12 hours too soon for me. I can’t get down there until Sunday evening at the earliest. Too late if some of the guidance is right.

This. The small core scenario makes an ERC more likely, but the mere fact that we’re grasping for inhibitors to a high end event tells us all we need to know.

Dear Lord the GFS tees up another major just a few days later.

By then you’d likely have to consider what the internal structure is doing, i.e. eyewall replacement cycle.

Absolutely. Squarely in the peak historically.

Onshore by Monday morning too. Not a lot of time to prepare.

There have certainly been more in recent years but I think that’s a function of hurricanes being stronger and hitting more populated areas. Impactful storms still get left out. Isaías for example last year. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/most-surprising-hurricanes-names-not-get-retired

Ends up being slightly west and about the same intensity pressure wise.