WxWatcher007

Yup. Wake me up on August 20 and show me the ensemble guidance. You won’t predict the predominant steering pattern in September this early.

Started talking about potential in my group chat on June 22. Obviously there’s a ton that happens between speculation and game time but sometimes these signals are as solid as it gets. Makes it all the more frustrating that the Euro ensembles are really struggling with TC genesis signals even at very short range. Makes blending much more difficult IMO.

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/content/tropical-storm-elsa-sets-records-2021-atlantic-hurricane-season

For posterity...on July 4th the Euro had Elsa getting ripped apart off the SE Coast while the GFS had a system going into Florida and up part of the East Coast. Two days later hurricane warnings were issued for the Florida coast. Tropical tracking is not easy.

We'll see We toss like Euro wind gust products?

Impressive event in CT, certainly aided by the recent rainfall.

Seeing flash flood reports from Fairfield County. Probably need a warning up there.

Good luck to everyone up there today. Hope you get smoked.

Glad everyone is ok

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1113 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... * Until 215 AM EDT. * At 1113 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area within 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Lexington Park... Piney Point... Tall Timbers... Saint Marys City... Saint Marys River... Saint Inigoes Creek... Saint George Island... Saint Inigoes... Park Hall... Drayden... Dameron...

Predecessor Rain Event In simple terms these are significant rain events to the north or northwest of a tropical system—one that’s usually recurving. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/seminar_files/PRE_NWS_Teletraining.ppt

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1031 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern St. Marys County in southern Maryland... * Until 1100 PM EDT. * At 1031 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Saint Inigoes Creek, moving northwest at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Saint George Island around 1035 PM EDT. Saint Marys River and Saint Marys City around 1040 PM EDT. Lexington Park, Piney Point and Tall Timbers around 1045 PM EDT. White Point Beach around 1055 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Point Lookout, Dameron, Great Mills, Redgate, Valley Lee, Drayden, Scotland, Saint Inigoes, Park Hall and Callaway.

Tornado warning south of VA Beach.

Don’t mind me I’m just throwing buns in the water for the weenies. Do tweets not show up on the site anymore?

Maximum sustained winds up to 50 at 5pm

or it could be like most Hollywood movies and have a horribly boring and annoying end?

Tropical

https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/1413180073763508225?s=21