WxWatcher007

Sammy is absolutely going to town right now. Just beautiful clear out of the eye as towers go up around the eye. Need to watch for an ERC per the earlier microwave images.

Gets absorbed in a few days

Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 The disturbance just north of Bermuda interacting with a mid- to upper-level low has developed a prominent band of deep convection within its eastern semicircle as well as a well-defined surface center. Additionally, the system is not displaying any significant baroclinicity (i.e., frontal boundaries), so it is not an extratropical cyclone. All of which indicates that the system has evolved into a subtropical cyclone. ASCAT-C scatterometer data from 1440Z suggested peak winds were around 40 kt, which is the basis for calling the system Subtropical Storm Teresa. The system is moving toward the northwest at 12 kt is it rounds the northern part of the mid- to upper-level low. By Saturday, Teresa should turn northward and then northeastward, as it begins to be caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast is based upon the TVCN track consensus technique. Teresa will not be long-lived. A developing extratropical system forming off of New England should absorb Teresa between 36 and 48 hours. Until then, the subtropical storm has a small window to intensify slightly while traversing lukewarm water and encountering moderate vertical shear. If deep convection develops near the system's center, then Teresa could evolve into a tropical storm. However, it is more likely that Teresa will remain a subtropical storm until dissipation in around two days. It is worth noting that Teresa will likely be the 9th so-called "shortie" of the 2021 hurricane season -- systems that are short- lived and relatively weak. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 34.5N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 35.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 36.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

I hear you. I have the benefit of being able to chase US tropical, so for a good enough event I can personally see the tracking payoff. I would have been in Louisiana for Ida if I didn’t have a family commitment I couldn’t move. I enjoy whatever falls in winter, but the older I get the more big dog or bust I become. I can’t muster the energy to track minor winter stuff closely anymore, but I get it though—I track Atlantic swirls before they’re even invests lol.

NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Teresa, located to the north of Bermuda, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Retransmitted NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued for the system located to the north-northeast of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Updated: Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that a well-defined center has formed with a surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda interacting with an upper-level trough. In addition, the low is producing gale-force winds on the north side of its circulation. Additional development into a subtropical storm is now expected, and advisories will likely be initiated this afternoon as the system moves slowly toward the north-northwest. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Mean would still keep it away from the US, but the cutoff has trended SW a bit. This thing is basically crawling before it reaches the Antilles.

I loathe winter tracking so this is my regular season. Agree about the ensembles but they lead the way to the “right” solution more often than not.

Unless the ensembles make a notable shift, these op runs are just pretty to look at and wonder what could be here.

I still caution that at this range all the operational stuff is still weenie fodder, but heh, it's something to talk about for a few hours. Show me the ensembles because the GEFS are not budging.

The ridge and cutoff retrograde west...how it gets there is pretty interesting too. At the risk of starting another 12 hour debate on what "close" is LOL I'll just stop there

NHC says in their 2pm that they may start advisories on 99L later this afternoon. Finally a little homebrew Also, regardless of how this 12z run ends, this is a pretty interesting Euro run. Still weenie fodder at this range though.

Likely to become our next named storm as it has increased in organization. Perhaps a system for Maritime Canada? Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda is gradually becoming better defined as it interacts with an upper-level trough. This system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph north of the low center and additional development into a subtropical or tropical storm appears likely. Advisories could be initiated as soon as this afternoon as the system moves slowly toward the north-northwest over the next day or so. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Yes we can

That’s a heck of a business idea. I’ve already had the guys in marketing do a mock up. THE SWEEPER Pushing tropical cyclones and weenies into the abyss since 1492.

I’m offended you’re not talking about the imminent grid collapse that Sammy will bring to the northeast.

Cape Verde. Basically the part of the season where the majority of the tropical activity comes from waves that form near Africa.

So far…expect Sam to add some ACE to the total.

That one was a really extraordinary turn of events. From an easy recurve pattern (modeled) to stalling over NC. This far out, the operational runs are just weenie fodder IMO. Fun to look at but that's about it. The ensembles will really give you a sense of where things stand in terms of modeled track, though it should be noted these will shift and can shift dramatically one way or another at this range too. I wouldn't look at the long term stuff on the models, 6+ days out, as whether a model is right or wrong. At this stage, I'd watch for the larger steering environment players and short to medium term environment for potential intensification to get a sense of what's possible with regard to track and intensity.

That's very impressive considering that just a few weeks ago that region was barely above normal. Everything has lined up for an extended CV season.

Regardless of the eventual track, it’s going to be very cool to watch this thing take off over the next two days in the MDR. For all those that have been waiting for this part of the MDR to look like the peak periods of yesteryear, get your popcorn ready.

5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 23Location: 11.1°N 39.7°WMoving: W at 16 mphMin pressure: 1000 mbMax sustained: 60 mph

All good, just messing with ya. Thanks for starting the thread.

EPS would still favor a recurve at this juncture. Very nice animation of it here.