WxWatcher007

I just need 10 mph more

Longest lived major in the Atlantic since 2017. Very impressive.

What an awesome storm. Back near peak intensity.

My place is outrageous with holding heat. One day this August I went to work without timing the AC and when I got home that night it was 93 inside. Brutal.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 4:27ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 Storm Name: SamStorm Number & Year: 18 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 13Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 4:02:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.71N 58.58WB. Center Fix Location: 513 statute miles (826 km) to the ENE (72°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,594m (8,510ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 943mb (27.85 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 360° at 10kts (From the N at 12mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 200° to 20° (SSW to NNE)G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)G. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 111kts (127.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the WSW (252°) of center fix at 4:00:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 353° at 120kts (From the N at 138.1mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (251°) of center fix at 3:59:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 99kts (113.9mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NE (49°) of center fix at 4:09:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 140° at 139kts (From the SE at 160.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (50°) of center fix at 4:07:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,030m (9,941ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 139kts (~ 160.0mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NE (50°) from the flight level center at 4:07:00Z

Look at those FL winds. 137, 138, 139kt FL winds in the NE eyewall. SFMR don’t correspond but extrapolated pressure down to 940mb.

This is one of the great examples in recent memory for me at least of being able to merge days of recon data and satellite/microwave data. This’ll be great for researchers.

Signal looks a little stronger for some weak development in the homebrew region next week. CV season likely ends with 90L.

Yeah it’s not earth shattering. 98 ACE as of yesterday in the Atlantic, or 110% of climo to date.

I think it means you can cancel winter extra early this year.

Was popping in to say I hope I can get a good LES chase this season and y’all are talking tropical! Originally it looked like we’d see some SE Canada ridging and a cutoff low south of New England that could force a close approach by Sam, but the guidance quickly shifted to bring the trough over NE. That does two things: first, it allows for a much cooler NW/northerly flow that’s persistent as the trough slowly meanders over or just east of the region and 2) keeps Sam out to sea or pulls it into Newfoundland.

As impressive as the rapid intensification was, the period of weakening has been fascinating as well. It looks like the ERC, which reorganizes a hurricane's inner core, provided the opening for relatively light shear to impart dry air into the more vulnerable core, causing significant disruption.

It has recovered a bit in the last few frames (not shown above), but it’s really fascinating to contrast how the inner core rapidly organized yesterday to what we’ve seen this evening.

All my picks suck

I’m thinking of heading up this season. Never been before but drove through Vermont/NH last year after the peak and it was quite nice.

I'm not looking at it closely right now, but yeah, probably. Too many opportunities for the central Atlantic ridge to be weakened as whatever develops drives west. That said, the first wave could get shredded a bit by the outflow of Sam and meander its way into the western Caribbean in the long range until it finds a more favorable environment. Again, hadn't looked that much but this is the time of year for that kind of thing.

Closing out CV season with twins? Looks like the season shifts to the western Caribbean/SW Atlantic (fitting climo) soon.

First VDM of the recon mission. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 23:36ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: SamStorm Number & Year: 18 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 22:37:19ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.43N 50.56WB. Center Fix Location: 614 statute miles (988 km) to the E (81°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 932mb (27.53 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 120° at 30kts (From the ESE at 35mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical milesH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 134kts (154.2mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the W (270°) of center fix at 22:36:23ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 9° at 119kts (From the N at 136.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the W (270°) of center fix at 22:35:35ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 98kts (112.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (90°) of center fix at 22:39:02ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 174° at 120kts (From the S at 138.1mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the E (90°) of center fix at 22:39:06ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,065m (10,056ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 120kts (~ 138.1mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (90°) from the flight level center at 22:39:06Z

WE do...but will the NHC say it

I don't think the NHC will, not right now at least. That might be a postseason analysis question. That said, they still need to sample the other quadrants of the eyewall.

Ugh. We need funding to have recon on demand.

Recon finally beginning to descend into Sam. Should have some inner core data coming soonish.

5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 26Location: 14.2°N 50.5°WMoving: NW at 7 mphMin pressure: 938 mbMax sustained: 150 mph

Sam is definitely making its case for a five. High altitude recon is currently out there and low level recon shouldn’t be too far behind.