WxWatcher007

Stand by for a tropical update.

Poor Wiz. I know how he feels. We like what we like even if it doesn’t show up in our backyard lol. We don’t even do snow all that well around here these days. All we have left is “drought” and dew talk.

This morning a new invest was designated off the coast of Texas. Although it has 30% development odds currently, the guidance in recent days has picked up on some development that could allow this to become a tropical cyclone. 1. Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. While there is some shear evident in the area, and the system doesn't have time to rapidly develop due to proximity to land, this morning there are hints that a low level center has developed, and we do see some shallow convection attempting to fire around the center. We will need to watch and see if this LLC is durable, and if so, whether shear will be enough to inhibit tropical genesis. I'd put the odds a little higher than the current 30%, with odds increasing as long as that LLC continues to see convection firing near the center. Pressure drops don't look too impressive at the moment. Regardless of whether a TC comes out of this, it is likely to be a heavy rain event for parts of the Texas coast, with the Euro particularly aggressive with rainfall over the next 3-4 days.

Yeah I was thinking of you today with the 12z Euro crossover run lol. It looks like this’ll be a relatively quick mover with that big ridge over the top.

That’s awesome! You can see how PTC 2 traverses lower shear while the trailing wave runs right at the shear. Still, the gfs continues to be quite aggressive in developing something out of that.

NHC expects this to become the first hurricane of the season. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just investigated the tropical wave to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and found that the system has not yet developed a closed circulation. However the plane did find an area of tropical-storm-force winds over the northern portion of the system. The disturbance is producing some cells of strong convection, but overall the system is not very well organized. Since there is a good chance that the disturbance will become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward Islands, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The environment looks fairly favorable for development, but the numerical guidance is generally not that bullish on strengthening for the next couple of days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the correct consensus model, HCCA. Although the center is not well defined, my best estimate of the initial motion is about 285/16 kt. A strong 500 mb subtropical ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the system through the forecast period. This steering scenario should cause a west-northwestward to westward track for the next several days. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected over the Windward Islands and northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night and into Wednesday. 2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the southern Windward Islands beginning late Tuesday and into Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 8.6N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/0600Z 9.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 28/1800Z 10.1N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 29/0600Z 10.8N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 11.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 11.8N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 12.1N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 12.2N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 12.3N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Could have been a contender, but there’s some significant shear evident on that loop (the cloud tops getting blown away).

PTC Two coming at 5pm.

PTC Two coming at 5pm.

100% It’s cheaper, it’s easier, and often a better experience. I can swap between games and toss ones that are clunkers.

We have wind (trade aided) but now LLC yet.

I really want to find time to do a tropical update. Ugh. Recon has arrived at the invest. This one is more organized now that it’s moving past 50W, but we’ll see if it’s enough to to get designated. It’s going to pass very low, almost scraping South America, which is pretty uncommon, en route to Central America. Meanwhile the gfs continues to show development of the wave after 94L. I’m fact the 12z run takes it into Florida next week as a weak TS. The environment is much more hostile after 94L so grain of salt there. Ensembles have been showing a signal though, hence the lemon issued today.

Recon has arrived at the invest. The key thing is whether it has a closed LLC.

Months and months of monotony.

Happy birthday!

Recon is scheduled to investigate this afternoon.

Yeah, it looks like this one stays south. Interestingly, it looks like the ensembles are hinting at the following wave having a shot at development.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical Atlantic: The low-level wind field associated with a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become better defined today, but the wave is only producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical Atlantic: The low-level wind field associated with a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become better defined today, but the wave is only producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

I’ve noticed this on the guidance and yeah, maybe some weak homebrew for the Gulf possible.

The wave had been designated Invest 94L.

I love big heat, so this is really cool lol

It’s early so it’s just speculation at this point, but we know that given how far south the wave is and the time of year, this one is unlikely to gain a lot of latitude before getting into the central Caribbean. That said, once it gets there, the ensemble guidance today has been less aggressive with ridging. This one could be a long tracker with an eventual trip to the Gulf/SW Atlantic. It does kind of have an Elsa vibe. Long way to go obviously…

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit more concentrated this evening, and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as this system moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Papin