WxWatcher007

Storm mode Radio show coming? lol

96 frame radar image from the COD site. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BYX-N0B-0-96-100

Recon is by far the best way to receive the data necessary for real-time analysis of tropical cyclone structure and strength. There are many times where we see a great (or terrible) IR appearance and recon finds otherwise. These are complex processes and sometimes it takes time for winds to respond to pressure falls, expanded wind fields, etc. IR can give you a sense of an overall structural trend, but recon tells you what's actually happening.

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The well-defined eye of Ian emerged off the coast of western Cuba about an hour ago. Earlier reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ian strengthened up through landfall, with an estimated pressure of 947 mb over western Cuba. While the hurricane has filled somewhat due to the passage over Cuba, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data show that it has grown in size. The initial wind speed is set to 100 kt. Ian is moving northward, or 005/9 kt. Dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft indicate a potent upper-level trough is over the western Gulf of Mexico. The strength of this trough, the associated southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering features leading to big speed and track differences down the line, not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. The latest forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance. The rest of the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at longer range. The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear conditions. While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before landfall. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida. The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Watch for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a watch. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected to continue in portions of western Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian. 2. Life-threatening storm surge looks increasingly likely along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders if made for your area. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Residents should rush all preparations to completion today. 4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida today, spreading into central and northern Florida tonight and Wednesday, into the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding is expected across central Florida into southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 83.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 82.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 82.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 30/0000Z 28.5N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 33.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

While we wait for our tropical number to be called, today is the anniversary of Gloria. The last CT hurricane strike predates me.

Fair enough. I respect the consistency on avoiding things not of interest to you.

What are your thoughts about the track adjusting further east after LF, putting it back out (briefly) over the Atlantic? Seems more viable today than yesterday, but still a relatively low likelihood compared to it meandering just inland.

Agree. There's already going to be significant issues with the fetch and places like Charleston are extremely vulnerable even when there isn't a major storm. I'd still be watching this closely in coastal GA and SC, and I know that folks like @GaWx are all over it.

It looks like we're now seeing strong consensus on the west coast landfall zone, but I do still wonder if the medium range will shift more eastward and put the center into the Atlantic briefly.

Yeah, we'll see what the ceiling is today. This was an easy call for this to become a major long before it even developed. Fortunately, some weakening is possible as shear picks up.

Cat 4 should be easy to do today provided the structure still looks excellent after fully crossing Cuba.

Ian became a major hurricane this morning. Updated verification. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)Named Storms: 10 (6)Hurricanes: 6 (4)Major Hurricanes: 4 (2)

Just catching up. Still far away, but the center is now on the BYX (Key West) radar.

Underestimating surge is the quickest way to end up with a totaled car or dead lol. Not much interest in that. Hurricanes bring much broader (and longer duration) high winds. Love severe and photogenic tors, but there's nothing like watching and experiencing extreme winds in action.

Looks like there could be some nasty conditions along the shoreline on Sunday/Monday if the GFS is right. I'm interested in the post landfall motion and whether this turns more progressive if that trough is a little stronger.

I mean, it intensified 30kts in 18 hours. That's RI. It's all about the structure and environment. Yesterday morning it built the structure to intensify at a rapid pace, and late yesterday/early this morning it capitalized on the environment. Now it needs to close the eye and keep it closed consistently to have the next level of rapid intensification. I don't really see any major red flags that this will underperform in reaching major status. If 12 hours from now it still can't close off an eyewall, then there's an issue IMO.

True, but I definitely do not chase water. That 12z GFS run would be close to catastrophic for Tampa and the surrounding area.

Originally it had the UKMET ensembles, but they ran so late it kind of made the super ensemble obsolete as it was significantly delayed.

Maybe. Blending is the way to go usually, and I think that holds true here so far. There is a lot of medium range spread in track, which translates into intensity and obviously impacts. This one seems to be a mess for emergency managers along the coast that need to start getting people ready now. This is where I think Tomer's super ensemble is especially helpful, and at five days 00z you still have significant spread. I think we're still in the stage where we're trying to figure out the real envelope of possibilities. A Tampa LF vs Panama City LF is a big spread. What happens inland is a big spread too and will have impacts on GA/SC. I don't have to make a forecast so it's easy for me to say, but I'm more in watch/collect data mode because I'm not sure any model has this evolution under control yet.