WxWatcher007

12z guidance also moved back toward more direct impacts in Atlantic Canada.

Landfall Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Franklin's center appears to have made landfall a little to the south of Barahona, Dominican Republic, shortly before 1200 UTC, and it is now moving northward over the mountainous terrain of the country. Heavy rains have likely overspread much of Hispaniola, although the deepest convection is occurring along the south-central coast of the island. It is assumed that the maximum winds have decreased now that the center is over land, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which is close to the latest UW-CIMSS AiDT and D-PRINT estimates. Franklin's speed has picked up a bit, and it is moving toward the north (005 degrees) at 11 kt. The storm continues to move northward through a break in the subtropical ridge, but it is expected to turn northeastward in the next 24-36 hours when it becomes positioned near the southern extent of a large mid-latitude trough over the western Atlantic. Then, in about 3 days, the central Atlantic ridge is expected to strengthen and block Franklin's eastward progress, forcing the storm to turn toward the north by days 4 and 5. The track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 60-72 hours of the forecast, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the previous prediction and the various consensus aids. After 72 hours, the guidance suggests that the northward turn may be a little delayed. In response, the NHC track has been shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast at days 4 and 5. Franklin will still be affected by moderate-to-strong west-southwesterly shear when it moves off the coast of Hispaniola later today, so it will likely take some time for the circulation to reorganize itself after moving over the rugged terrain. Otherwise, environmental conditions should support gradual strengthening starting in about 24 hours. In about 3 days, a developing upper-level low near the Bahamas is likely to provide a more favorable diffluent environment aloft over Franklin, potentially fostering more significant strengthening. Although there is a fairly wide range of intensity possibilities in the deterministic and ensemble intensity guidance on days 3-5, the overall guidance envelope has been trending higher. The NHC intensity forecast follows that tendency and is higher than the previous forecast on days 4 and 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of Hispaniola into Thursday, which is expected to produce significant and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola. 2. Franklin is bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect, and tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the Turks and Caicos Islands later today or tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.9N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER DOMINICAN REPUB. 12H 24/0000Z 20.5N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 24/1200Z 22.1N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 23.1N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 23.4N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 24.3N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 27.3N 66.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 31.1N 67.6W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Canada only, if that. EPS west/GEFS east. The means have been offshore, however, and have generally shifted more in that direction the last 24 hours.

Oh it’s definitely still worth watching in NS. Small upper level changes could still make a big difference for Atlantic Canada—whether that’s more direct impact or no impact at all.

This is really excellent.

Hermine

Yeah, for now at least. Euro is faster with intensification after landfall but guidance has been waivering back and forth on that.

Joaquin or Hermine? If it missed I don’t remember it

Gotta wonder if there will be a reformation after landfall.

Well the Euro keeps Atlantic Canada on the table. Still worth watching closely there.

I remember exactly where I was as Charlie underwent RI before landfall. It was jaw dropping as a kid watching TWC. Yeah, there’s the larger synoptic piece—thinking of an example like Henri and Florence where the guidance and climo heavily favored OTS and things gradually changed…and then there’s the “mesoscale” piece—like today when Harold literally reformed it’s center to the north and developed a partial eyewall just after recon barely could find a closed low and left the system. There are many obvious cases to Ray’s point. If there isn’t a big ULL over the Great Lakes I can be highly confident nothing’s coming to my backyard, but for the Carolinas to Texas, there are a number of different pathways to get hit and intensity forecasting remains one of the hardest spaces in meteorology, even 6-12 hours out. Ian is a great and terrifying example of that.

What wild seasons those were

Post Floyd, it had basically been misses until Irene for here, which was highly damaging across much of the state but underperformed relative to the forecast even 48 hours out. If there’s one dominant theme I see across this site it’s folks being way too sure about how any given system turns out. If there’s anything I’ve learned tracking and now chasing tropical, it’s that you work the uncertainty questions until there’s a rock solid answer. If you look at the legacy threads—you’ll see a lot of early (or late) declarative statements that end up wrong. Myself included. I just try to learn any chance I get.

I was too young. For whatever reason Bonnie was the one that was my baptism by fire. Floyd was minor in the whole scheme of things, but I remember the wind swaying the trees during outdoor gym class and cutting the power at my school. I was already hooked on tropical, but that was the first direct tropical experience I can remember and it was the greatest thing ever for me.

Honestly it’s barely worth tracking tropical if someone is looking for NE impacts. Casual eyes and weenie fodder between July and September. At least October has been a consistent hybrid producer recently.

Harold packing a good little punch today. Multiple tornado warnings, aerial/surge flooding, and some strong winds even after landfall.

Steering pattern just doesn’t look conducive for a strike after DR/Haiti and maybe Bermuda. Just discussing though—I still believe we need to get this out of the Caribbean to see what eventual long term track looks like as it moves north.

I don’t know why I allowed myself to believe that there could be a reconciliation with winter after the last basically decade of misery (lived in DC for part of the stretch). Winter and I are divorced for good. Of course I’ll take action and will chase something high end, but I’m done breathlessly tracking and patiently waiting. Done.

Significant shift east on the guidance so far today away from direct Atlantic Canada impacts.

I wouldn’t be posting this much if I weren’t home sick Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 It is unclear this morning if Franklin still has a well-defined center of circulation. Visible satellite images suggest that broad low-level turning is occurring well to the west of the bulk of Franklin's deep convection, and there is no clear evidence that a center exists near, or that a new center if re-forming beneath, the convection. It appears that scatterometer will miss Franklin and be of no help in assessing the wind field, but a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon. For now, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is right in the middle of the various subjective and objective satellite estimates. If Franklin does still have a center, it is assumed to have jumped or re-formed a bit to the west where there is new convection. This position gives the storm an overall motion over the past 12 hours toward the northwest (325 degrees) at 6 kt. Franklin is positioned within the southern extent of a large mid-level trough, which includes a mid-/upper-level low centered south of Bermuda. While the steering flow is weak, this should cause Franklin to move slowly northward and then northeastward for the next 4 days or so. By day 5, a new shortwave trough is likely to develop over New England, with ridging strengthening over the central Atlantic, and Franklin is forecast to turn back toward the north at that time. Largely because of the adjustment in the initial position, all of the track guidance has shifted westward on this cycle. The NHC track forecast has also been moved westward, although it is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and fairly close to the typically-reliable HCCA consensus aid. That said, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in Franklin's forecast track given potential re-formations of the center. Moderate-to-strong westerly shear is expected to continue over Franklin for the next 4 days or so. In addition, the system is forecast to move over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola within the next 24-36 hours. As a result, little change in strength is anticipated before Franklin reaches Hispaniola, and some weakening is likely while it is crossing the island. Some intensification is then noted in the 3-5 day period when environmental conditions begin to become a little more conducive for strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids for much of the 5-day forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday. 2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect, beginning later today and continuing through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.5N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 16.5N 71.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 18.3N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...S COAST OF DOM REPUB 36H 24/0000Z 20.4N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 24/1200Z 22.1N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 22.9N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 23.3N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 24.2N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 27.1N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Landfall at Padre Island. 50mph/998mb

Spot on. We’ve had our windows and have produced, but the impact has been marginal relative to what we could do. We had a lot of those systems weaken substantially on approach, and even though some have been high impact, we haven’t really seen a big widespread deal. It’ll happen eventually, but a lot has to go right (or wrong) for the perfect storm. Turning to the basin, Harold has ramped up quickly but ran out of runway. Get a real Gulf system this year and it’ll be trouble, again…