WxWatcher007

First VDM Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 20:35ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 19:54:07ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.65N 67.05WB. Center Fix Location: 268 statute miles (431 km) to the SSW (194°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - ExtrapolatedE. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not AvailableI. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NAJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 61° at 36kts (From the ENE at 41.4mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NNW (330°) of center fix at 19:48:41ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not AvailableM. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NAN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 156° at 32kts (From the SSE at 36.8mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix at 20:12:58ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 519m (1,703ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 523m (1,716ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 29°C (84°F)S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 1,500 feetT. Navigational Fix Accuracy / Meteorological Accuracy (Undecoded): 0.01 / NARemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) which was observed 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 18:09:34Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT RA

Meanwhile in the Midwest. Dear God.

Tropical Storm Franklin advisories coming at 5pm.

00z 12z

Not worth much verbatim, but both the GFS and Euro at 12z went back to hinting at some type of activity in the Gulf next week. Been causally looking at that since earlier in the week. Euro gone wild at 12z so nobody should take that seriously obviously, but that's the risk with that type of pattern IMO.

Long way to go with all the usual caveats but this at least initially looks looks like a Maritime Canada contendah to me. Just the timing and strength of those ridges look like trouble. Doubt the EPS has such an extended stall, which will impact what the members do.

Yeah I really want to see how it impacts the guidance, which has trended westward quite a bit recently.

Doesn't really matter at range because there's a lot to sort out, but the 12z Euro continued the overall trend of a more westward 90L. 00z had it basically around Bermuda. We'll see what the ensembles do.

Euro uses most of its 12z run today to stall what will likely be Franklin at 5pm east of the Bahamas. I've aways felt that these TCs are a bit move it or lose it. I think these slow Atlantic movers are just waiting for a kicker to arrive more often than not. Not sure that's what'll happen on this run, but it's an illustration of how difficult a forecast this is currently.

Should have Franklin at 5pm with Invest 90L. Recon finding TS winds and I think enough of a closed circulation.

You all need the rain. It has been a brutal summer there.

Whew, this latest set of obs from recon is interesting. We'll see if it's enough for the NHC. 1000.4mb (extrapolated at ~1,300ft) with a pretty sharp wind shift. Peak FL wind obs between 45-50kt with peak SFMR obs between 45-56kts, none rain contaminated.

Landfall northern Baja Peninsula at 65mph and 988mb

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms have increased this afternoon in association with an area of disturbed weather located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional development of this system is possible as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph, and a tropical depression could form as it approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

I fully expect recon to find a TS here. Recon descending into the invest now.

Looks like it is sharpening nicely so far today. Dev odds should come up at 2pm.

Let’s see what the Euro does.

The area of disturbed weather that we've tracked for a while from a tropical wave has been designated Invest 91L. I did a little deep dive before the designation. Sorry for cross posting so much. Gulf Disturbance I tagged yesterday's disturbance with 60% odds of eventual development when it was moving through the Bahamas and Florida, and now that it has reached the eastern Gulf I am even more bullish given today's satellite appearance. To be clear: this one needs some work and there's not a lot of time to do it. That said, the quick convective burst and indications that it's trying to form into a low makes it worth an invest tag to me. The environment overall looks favorable. There is very little shear present and that should remain the case as this moves west. Once again, we obviously know that the SSTs are not an issue, with literally some of the warmest water on Earth in the Gulf and a deep reservoir of OHC. Moisture looks solid not great, but given where the vorticity is trying to tighten and the convective bursts we're seeing, I don't think drier continental air is a limiting factor yet. We'll see. I think time is the greatest limiting factor here, but kind of like Hanna a few years ago, if this can get a good organizational burst today/tonight that could bode well for another named storm to develop as this enters the western Gulf and the TX/Mexico border early Tuesday. Again, not a lot of time, and nothing can happen until there's a legitimate low, which we do not have yet.

Yeah, any BS trough in the east could kick it away, but we've had a lot of anomalous cutoffs...

I do think the westward trend in the guidance for 90L (I expect recon to find a TS) is worth watching. Maybe not enough for here, but certainly would be keeping an eye in Atlantic Canada.

Did a deep dive on the Gulf and 90L in the MA subforum thread, but reposting the 90L portion here: Invest 90L This one is worth watching IMO. I think it is a contender to be the strongest system of the season thus far in the long range. Recon is expected to sample this later today and I believe they will find a tropical storm. In the visible you can clearly see a low level circulation, but there are some significant issues keeping this from taking off. There is very evident northerly shear that is pushing the convective burst that should be over the center further south. That's how we can see that there is a clear LLC In addition to the shear, there is dry air to the north that is causing issues as well. I don't expect dry air to be as big an issue long term, but for now the shear/dry air combo is keeping this one in check. This would be taking off IMO without the combination, because the convective bursts that we have seen have been persistent and intense--really allowing this to be as organized (and it's not terribly organized) as it is now. I'm intrigued by the long range because it looks like the environment after a potential landfall near DR/Haiti will be conducive for additional development. In fact, both the GFS and Euro operational guidance has this becoming a strong system in the open Atlantic. I still think we need to wait for this to cross the Antilles back into the Atlantic before fully understanding the long term future of 90L, but overall, troughing is going to lift this north into the Atlantic. How far west this gets before that turn seems important, and certainly what other impulses in the Atlantic exist ahead of 90L, because both the Euro and GFS have a ridge over the CONUS and have trended toward a subtropical ridge building in to drive what is likely a named storm by then northward. Throw in any kind of trough in there to either cause a weakness between the ridges to go OTS, or in the case of a cutoff in the east change steering toward land, and we have a very complex forecast. Given the complexity of the forecast long range, and the shift west we've seen in ensemble guidance as 90L continues to develop, this one is certainly worth a close eye in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada, and to a lesser extent the US east coast. A lot of tracking to do this week.

Did a deep dive on the Gulf and 90L in the MA subforum thread, but reposting the Gulf portion here: Gulf Disturbance I tagged yesterday's disturbance with 60% odds of eventual development when it was moving through the Bahamas and Florida, and now that it has reached the eastern Gulf I am even more bullish given today's satellite appearance. To be clear: this one needs some work and there's not a lot of time to do it. That said, the quick convective burst and indications that it's trying to form into a low makes it worth an invest tag to me. The environment overall looks favorable. There is very little shear present and that should remain the case as this moves west. Once again, we obviously know that the SSTs are not an issue, with literally some of the warmest water on Earth in the Gulf and a deep reservoir of OHC. Moisture looks solid not great, but given where the vorticity is trying to tighten and the convective bursts we're seeing, I don't think drier continental air is a limiting factor yet. We'll see. I think time is the greatest limiting factor here, but kind of like Hanna a few years ago, if this can get a good organizational burst today/tonight that could bode well for another named storm to develop as this enters the western Gulf and the TX/Mexico border early Tuesday. Again, not a lot of time, and nothing can happen until there's a legitimate low, which we do not have yet.