WxWatcher007

Yes, that’s definitely true, but what I think is different here is strong consensus on the first big Atlantic ridge over the basin keeping this west. That’s enough to get it to the islands. All bets are off after. It’s way too far out, but just having the above ridge on the ensembles is problematic imo because the guidance has been underselling the ridges we’ve seen thus far. I’d still think that troughing over the E Coast could be around for a late kick, but you never know.

It’s as close to a MH lock as you’ll ever see, which means I was probably too conservative with my peak season MH forecast. I don’t think that’s it before October 20.

It’s as legit a pre-genesis signal for a long track major hurricane as I’ve seen in a while. No guarantees it stays OTS but I’d probably favor that at the moment just given climo.

Wouldn’t be surprised. Given that an ERC was happening, it was a really interesting eyewall with a lot of spinning. The damage survey after had a lot of trees snapped.

Well, nobody in New England should ever expect a direct hit until an eyewall is over their house. I’m just talking about the CV signal.

From a legit dead basin to this. Buckle up folks, I think we’re rolling through the 20th.

Been a while. Maybe not since 2017?

Regardless of whether it makes a close approach to the US, it’s a classic long track CV signal.

The long tracker is coming.

My video from the storm. Damage survey video tomorrow.

Here’s my Idalia video. Damage survey video tomorrow.

Jose could become a hurricane lol WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (6) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose

Here’s my video from Idalia. Crazy seeing so much debris in the air. Enjoy. I’ll do my damage survey video tomorrow.

Yes, I think so, just keep in mind that troughs can easily modify in future runs. The orientation and depth matters a lot—like we saw with Franklin.

Christmas is four months away.

Right. I’m not tracking this seriously. I need a few days to recover from Florida. Maybe we go from joke to “threat” by then

This would be pretty funny. Cat 1 or bust for sloppy seconds lol.

At least we’ll be able to see the clouds spiraling in the sky as the naked swirl passes over New England.

I actually think we’re ripe in that department. Look at the OHC too. It’s enough. A climo track implies a fast mover hugging the coast and the Gulf Stream so I think the real issue is not having a kicker trough. They’re lurking even when we don’t think they are. If we were developing an ideal sloppy seconds Idalia track, it would get trapped under the ridge and pushed westward back toward the Carolinas until a trough picks it up. Aside from that, real chances would come from homebrew in the western Caribbean or Bahamas.

A track from the east ain’t it if we want legit tropical. Either the euro has to haul it west before cooler waters or it’ll need to get suppressed to our south and slung NW. This is really just weenie hoping and praying and tracking, which is fine, but hopefully expectations are where they should be right now. Zero

I won’t lie I’ll look casually but there are no expectations. The basin is going to provide plenty of other red meat the next two weeks.

Well the ensemble guidance is split and the hurricane track models to loop it. It probably is a shell of itself if it happens before a trough kicks it.

Yeah, I was out of the loop

Exactly.