WxWatcher007

Hurricane models for whatever they’re worth with a broad low, have future Ophelia get sub 990mb before a NC landfall. All in agreement in a heavy rain event in SNE.

Problem is it’s September not January

We hope, though my concern is that we flip this in November.

I was hopeful too, but deep down I knew hydro was coming back. This is made all the more impressive by the fact that this is the first heavy rain event here that’s directly influenced by tropical. In 2021 and a lot of the other big rainfall years tropical had a heavy influence.

18z

I could hear a "PLEASE GOD" coming from the west after you posted that. Stay safe.

Yup, rain's the story here. If we can get that axis of heavy rain over us Saturday or Sunday watch out. I'm at 7.55" since September 8. Unreal how wet it has been...my lawn is having trouble draining lol.

Probably would remain unless it became clear in time that development wasn’t happening.

The first SHIPS forecast was eye opening and I think there’s a good chance of the dynamics I posted about earlier leading to development of an inner core. Time is the limitation here, I think.

30% IMO 100%

Keep the rain/snow line over Manhattan please

Here are the anomalies And actual temps

Seeing that LLC become better defined, but like the NHC stated, center reformations will be possible. We'll see how the next few hours go, but it's coming together. Likely won't become tropical until it's closing in on NC.

With more light, you can see a well defined LLC, but note that as the NHC said, center reformations will be possible, especially with convection to the east and high shear present off the SE coast.

Nah, this should go over NC and into the Mid-Atlantic. Makes it post tropical up our way unless it trends east and stays off the coast—even then the waters north of the GS are cold. Shear is high off the SE coast too so while I think it can trend a little stronger there is a ceiling.

I think there’s a good chance this keeps trending a little stronger. The 50kt opening bid by the NHC is a nod to those stronger global runs. Looks pretty wet here. Not sure how that’ll trend.

Homebrew delivers.

Going tropical as of that advisory.

I’ve seen this happen a few times recently with homebrew systems. Kind of surprised the NHC wasn’t higher given the cross guidance signal on the models, particularly in the last 24 hours.

I love it.

Agree. This looks like an uncommon SE homebrew in the sense that it’s forming on an old boundary and not getting shunted ENE out to sea. Atlantic ridging FTW. Might have some good gusts along the CT and LI coast with the gradient from the developing high to the north.

PTC 16 coming at 11am now. Escalated quickly lol.

PTC 16 coming at 11 now.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Corrrected time in the product For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to raise probabilities and update discussion Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Off the Southeastern United States Coast (AL99): Updated...A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within this area by early Friday, and there are increasing chances that this system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, this low is likely to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic United States coastline on Friday and into the weekend. Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required for this system as soon as later this morning. Additional information on this system, including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.