WxWatcher007

I don’t think most people realize how dangerous this is at a societal level.

Yeah I mean that’s who quality controlled that! Indeed it does. A whole can of worms that’s probably human nature pushed to the extreme by proliferation of social media and algorithms. Only bound to get worse, unfortunately, and many of us are guilty of it as we rocket through the digital age.

I'm sorry, but some of this sounds like hyperbole of the hyperbole. What serious person is out there saying that a 90 degree day in New England is dangerous and requires people staying inside? Everybody knows the information environment is crap on balance. Even the general public to a large degree gets that. A met on local tv saying a heat dome is going to give us highs of 95 with a HI of 105 so take precautions otherwise it can be dangerous is very different from some kid on YouTube saying the heat dome is going to kill everybody. Yeah, they get clicks, but I don't encounter a lot of people in normal life who are cowering in a corner because of something they heard from a random online. In the face of a lot of bad information and hype out there, a lot of professionals and serious hobbyists have tried to counter that with using more probabilistic forecasting and communication, contextualizing how weather is not climate, and explaining how the science is the same even when terminology changes. To be clear--I believe the information environment is profoundly worse on balance than it was 30 years ago. There is too much hype, too many bad actors cashing in on quackery, and too little nuance introduced whenever we do have high end events (not every hurricane or major flood is directly tied to climate change, not every temperature drop below zero/above 100 is historic, etc) but I don't think it's fundamentally changed how most people make decisions, especially in advance of/during high end events. Not yet at least.

Not this year. Atlantic is closed.

Cracked at least 2.0” storm total here.

I don't think any reasonable forecaster was too far out there? I mean my forecast was a general 2-4" in CT with high end localized flash flooding potential, mitigated by the duration of rain and relatively dry conditions beforehand. Also said the axis of heaviest if it set up over CT could produce 6+ somewhere. All the numbers pretty much verified but there was very little flash flooding. I didn't see others saying 1954 was walking through the door but then again I don't really follow what others say. It's totally possible to write and communicate a good forecast without ripping and reading model output verbatim. Everyone serious knew the big rain signal over the region was going to end up focused in much smaller areas.

Just makes me think of upslope snow...we can fail at synoptic up there but upslope keeps us in the game

1.88" storm total here so far.

5” of rain being reported out in the Danbury/Ridgefield area.

Need more push to get into the goods here. 1.33” storm total so far.

NAM kind of misses the current moderate to heavy rain across CT right now. Will be interesting to see when and where that big slug of precipitation blossoms.

Definitely juicy with those reports out west. BDR put .69” in the gauge in about an hour.

NAM still pretty aggressive across CT. Several flood reports in PA tonight.

Oof

BDR to ISP flood while Kev and I get sprinkles?

Yeah if I had to guess southern CT/Long Island is where the flooding happens.

Should’ve told my wife to send me to the Pacific for my birthday

Big heat is gone for now and we quickly turn our attention to an unusual summer setup. Weak high to the north, a weak low to the south, and an all-important warm front which will wring out PWATs of 1.5-2.0" between late tonight and Tuesday. Flood watches are up for CT, which may be expanded depending on where the axis of heaviest rain sets up. Ensemble guidance has a heavy rain signal Some high resolution guidance goes wild. The main takeaway is that while there may be a sizable area of meaningful rain (my forecast is 2-4 generally for CT) there is high end localized flash flooding potential where the warm front sets up. Most models have been fairly consistent in focusing the heaviest general and localized rain in SNE. For most, the mitigating factors here are 1) Outside of the axis of heaviest rain this is likely to be a spread out rainfall over many hours rather than short burst deluge and 2) antecedent conditions have been relatively dry, though many in CT have seen rain in recent days. Let's discuss. Let's flood.

Spread out over two days may help, but this increasingly looks like it has high end potential somewhere.

3k Nammy is absolutely hellacious in Connecticut Monday and Tuesday.

Someone reported damage along Rt 8. Damn good storm right now out there.

Treetops sheared off in Torrington

It’s gotten awesome once the front passed.

Yep. Let’s amp it up and flood.