WxWatcher007

While we’re setting the O/U on audible thunder at 0.5

I think Wx Twitter is going in circles because this will be the last Atlantic TC we see in a while.

Don’t look at western NY

@weatherwiz those are some monster velocities in Canada on that TOR warned storm.

Found this interesting

Pac putting on a show now. I looked at ensembles today and I've perked up. Looking at the big ensemble, the turn has definitely trended east in the last few cycles. This is the 00z and I'm guessing 12z will be a bit further east.

Thanks, guys. You’re probably right—more climo and unstable environment than anything else. Really interesting to watch. Hopefully the folks down there are staying safe—I don’t recall any forecasts for FFE level rainfall.

Incredibly impressive radar and satellite appearance. Given the wind observations you noted @NorthHillsWx, maybe a bit of Brown Ocean Effect slowing decay at least?

Nearly 1.5” here (CT) today.

Thanks for posting the official landfall. I jumped the gun lol. We’ve made it to September without a hurricane.

We’re on to coastal season

We rain.

Landfall. Good effort.

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 Edouard is a small but strengthening tropical storm. The center has been trackable this morning using NWS radar data from Lake Charles, Louisiana (KLCH), and recent data show the inner-core structure of the system is becoming better organized. There has been a notable increase in deep convection near and to the south of the center, and a recent dropsonde released in that area reported mean boundary layer winds of 61 kt. Doppler velocities have also notably strengthened during the past couple of hours, and adjusting these data to estimate a surface wind support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt. The last center dropsonde from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 1000 mb. Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for additional strengthening for as long as the center remains offshore. With very warm Gulf waters and weak vertical wind shear, the hurricane regional models continue to highlight the potential for continued strengthening through landfall. The 12-h forecast point for Edouard is well inland, but note that additional strengthening is expected that cannot be easily reflected in the official forecast. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for portions of the Upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Given the improved radar structure of Edouard and the expectation of additional strengthening, NHC will issue hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU) beginning at 1100 am CDT (16 UTC). Once inland, Edouard is likely to rapidly weaken and should dissipate on Wednesday. Some short-term wobbles have been observed in radar data during the past few hours, but the longer-term motion of Edouard is northwestward (305/7 kt). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, which will bring the center of Edouard onshore near the Texas/Louisiana border within the warning area this afternoon and then inland across southeastern Texas tonight. The updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the previous prediction based on the latest consensus trends. Key Messages: 1. Edouard is strengthening as it approaches the northwest Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are beginning along the southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still possible from High Island to Cameron later today. 2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect along the immediate coast from High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, where peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible. 3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and Wednesday as Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 29.4N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 30.2N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/1200Z 31.2N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Not much to add for me. Edouard is running out of time but is trying to make a run this morning.

Took me a second and I never thought about it: September, October, November, December. It's a great time, if the weather cooperates.

Good point. We’ll see if there’s a convective burst over the center in the coming hours. Like your post earlier stated, models are going to struggle forecasting intensity here. The environment as it stands tells us a lot, and we’ll see how close to the ceiling Edouard gets.

Yep. And we’ll see it happening on radar. Homebrew systems are interesting more often than not imo. Here’s another one.

I swear I just peeked at it and was going to post. Very interesting. HAFS-B is more muted but gets it close to hurricane strength.

Using a web hosting site like Imgur would help. You would upload there and just post the image links in one post here. I’d roll the dice with that temperature outlook all day, as long as we get plenty of systems passing through.

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 Satellite and radar data showed an increase in banding near the center of the small tropical cyclone during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates increased to around 35-40 kt, and the initial wind speed was therefore increased to 35 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. Since that time, there has been a pause in the organization of the system, but curved bands are noted over the northern and western portions of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been sampling the system this evening reported earlier that the pressure has fallen to around 1004 mb, which is quite a bit lower than from this afternoon's mission, though the last fix was up a millibar or two. The flight-level winds do not appear to have responded to the pressure drop yet, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Edouard will be moving over very warm waters of the northwestern Gulf within a low shear and a sufficiently moist environment tonight and Tuesday morning. As a result, nearly all of the dynamical models indicate that the system will strengthen on its approach to the coast, with most showing much of the strengthening occuring in the final hours before landfall. Given that the system is small, a period of quick organization and strengthening seems likely Tuesday morning. The NHC forecast calls for intensification during the next 12 hours and additional strengthening could result in Edouard nearing hurricane strength when it approaches the coast on Tuesday. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for a portion of the northwest Gulf coast with this advisory. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Note that since the peak intensity is expected to occur at landfall (between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points), it is not possible to explicitly reflect Edouard's peak intensity in the forecast points below. Edouard is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest to northwest during the next couple of days. This motion should bring the center onshore along the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday and inland over eastern Texas Tuesday night. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous track. Key Messages: 1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest Gulf Coast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to Cameron. 2. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coast within the warning area. 3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 28.6N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 29.2N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 30.1N 94.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/1200Z 31.1N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

2026 in a nutshell? Yeah. I'm not flying down.

Dry air definitely still looks to be an issue, and that was a clear limiting factor even when this was a lemon. I agree that there's no one size fits all for TCs, which is why the Twitter conversation sometimes gets frustrating because cold top convection does not automatically equal RI. You can see the dry air on the northern flank clearly, and it seems clear that it's having an impact, though I think the expanding outflow on the northern side of Edouard does limit it some. I've always been of the opinion that you need organization before substantial intensification so that's what I look for. Today we've seen substantial progress in that department. We went from a weak and elongated low this morning To a much tighter wind field, with a meaningful pressure drop this evening on the first recon pass of the evening. I still think an overnight/morning convective burst aided by diurnal maximum given the developing inner core should allow for modest intensification, with an added boost from frictional convergence. Like someone else said earlier, I think this is one of those short fuse homebrew cases where we do say if this had more time it could have intensified more substantially. Regardless, it will be interesting to watch given the radar coverage we will have from now through landfall. Tonight I'll be watching to see 1) if the reduction in central convection leads to a collapse in the nascent inner core and if not 2) how soon we see the overnight convective burst I'm expecting. 18z HAFS has that happening around 5am.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 5 (2) Hurricanes: 3 (0) Major Hurricanes: 1 (0) Dolly, Edouard