WxWatcher007

Man, it's gonna be fun to get into meso range with this one.

Hey there--resident tropical weenie here. Recon can incredibly useful, as it provides hard observations for areas that may not be sampled as well as they would be over the U.S., which in turn makes the initial conditions the models rely on to make their projections more accurate. So here, since they're sampling that Baja energy, it'll probably aid in more precisely projecting its intensity and speed. We're so close to the event that I doubt it makes a huge difference, but it just closes off one of the unknowns. Hope that helps.

At least 1.3” here yesterday into today. More coming.

Only “concern” at this point is Arctic sand cutting ratios. We may be snowing around 0F here. That said, the qpf numbers are compelling. Region wide crushah, just like the ones I used to know.

Yep, and look at the catastrophic ice progs in the South. My goodness.

I’d sign for the Euro right now. It’s beautiful all the way up here.

The geographic scale of this storm is just so impressive. Euro should cook.

At 33.5 at WXW1, but the radar looks great. Snowing nicely on camera.

Keep in mind that I think the recon Baja low data is only in the GFS and Euro at 00z, so I'd probably wait to see what the Euro does to assess the full suite and whether the other models are out of alignment with the GFS/Euro.

Big dog waiting to be unleashed

We gotta get back into high gear. Mid-Atlantic has 4x the weenies in their thread right now. Even the southeast forum is beating us.

Wil be interesting to see if there's a substantive change in the 500h evolution with the recon data on the Baja low added.

It'll be in the 00z suite. They get it assimilated pretty fast.

I do think there's a limit to how far north this will go, and we always have to watch for the ole messenger shuffle regardless.

The dam may be about to break. Big winter ahead?

Warm down there. 28.6° at WXW1. Light snow. Already a coating.

By the time you mix, if you did, you'd be sitting on a foot of powder at least. Your pack would be bulletproof in the cold that comes after...

First time tracking a big dog from up here. Hanging on your every post.

Nice. I got up here late but it's snowing. Around a half inch since I got here.

We LOVE to see it.

Southerners and Mid-Atlantic said that too. I’m not saying we’re getting screwed or anything…I think we’ll be just fine…but I think tonight shows that we’re not locked into anything yet when the trend is this aggressive. I do think it’ll settle eventually.

IIRC during GB ‘16 I ended up in a slot for a bit and others sleeted. Still finished with 22.0”. Totally agree. I do think this probably ticks north a little longer before settling back south when we see the magnitude of the cold press in a day or two. That’s not said to incite panic, sincerely, because I believe this has and continues to synoptically look like a huge storm for a lot of people with y’all at the epicenter. Really hope we can all cash in on the setup.

I’d sign right now and lock this for all of New England. There’s a limit to far this can go, but much like the south a few hours ago and the Mid-Atlantic right now, I don’t want to be sitting here tomorrow at this time wondering how in the hell a historic Arctic outbreak leads to a coastal blasting the mix line 200 miles to my north. Not saying that’ll happen, but be careful of wanting others to sniff your backside…

I’ve never purchased wxbell, but the big downside to weathermodels is it’s slower and I can’t zoom closely on ensembles.

And with some mid level magic, northern areas get smoked too.