WxWatcher007

It's a rough time for sure. Not sure how/if it can be fixed.

A worthwhile read that goes into more detail about AI forecasting. We’ll see if the GDM can keep up the exceptional work. https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/ai-weather-models-changing-the-hurricane

A worthwhile read. It’ll be interesting to see if GDM continues its exceptional performance this season. And we’ll see if the GFS bounces back. My God it was awful. https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/ai-weather-models-changing-the-hurricane

.75” so far. All in the last three hours. 11.75” up at WXW2

Blue skies, blue skies.

Beautiful day on the river

Can't say I've seen the gray X before. RIP I guess.

I have to say, I might be a bit biased after having my first fall and winter up there. Spring was rough--SLK was a ghost town in April--but my goodness it's wonderful up there. Just need to get a good squall line day up my way to complete it. Some folks in the Mid-Atlantic region used to organize a Midwest chasecation years ago. It'd be a hoot to have the regulars here crammed in a SUV driving through Kansas.

Because when it’s nice it’s really nice. Also they do snow and severe better than us

Drove up to Lebanon (I had no idea Woodstock got hit otherwise I would have surveyed the damage) and then drove back down 91 through some hellacious rain. Most brutal driving I've done in the rain since Dorian in NC. Encountered some scattered damage along the way. Nothing crazy. Got some great shots though. Great day overall for me.

Catastrophic flooding in parts of LA, and it looks like the Euro did well with the remnants’ evolution.

New warning up

Something out near Palmer @weatherwiz?

Around 4:30 heading S on 91 near South Hadley I saw brief lowering and rotation.

Wagons north. Heading to VT.

Nammy doesn't look too bad.

I suggest you log off and enjoy the New England gray overhead these next 10 hours.

HRRR gone wild up north.

Short lived but yeah. Some good bursts of convection still going down there. Yeah, that line looks solid right now. The line looks pretty damn robust on the 12z HRRR in NNE.

4.97”/hr rain rate right now

...Northeast... Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a 90 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft moving across NY and parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the region. Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth. However, ample midlevel cooling will still support sufficient destabilization. Strong deep-layer shear and backed surface winds ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells should develop over northern NY by 18Z, and will move quickly east, producing marginal hail and sporadic damaging gusts initially. The low EL height may mitigate hail production somewhat. By late afternoon, a tornado or two will be possible as storms encounter a stronger SRH environment farther east.

Just found spotted lanternfly nymphs on some vine in my yard. How do I wipe them out?

...New England/Mid-Atlantic... Convection will likely be ongoing ahead of the upper trough during the morning, particularly from eastern New York into New England. While this activity is likely to inhibit afternoon destabilization, strong wind fields will still promote some risk for damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado. The strongest activity will develop by early afternoon along the cold front and progress eastward. Bowing segments and marginal supercell structures will be possible. The strong low-level jet will be shifting eastward during the day, but portions of New England will still have strong 850 mb winds during the early/mid afternoon. If sufficient heating occurs, this is where the tornado risk will be marginally greater.