WxWatcher007

However we can get it, we want it.

Yeah I think we’re far from settled

Underperforming a bit here. Right around an inch so far. An inch yesterday too in unrelated upslope.

I’ve been unwavering in thinking this is a measurable event for most of SNE.

Good trends at 12z

GFS back in the fold. Good to see. Euro better not step back.

Yeah, it's increasingly likely we see a reshuffle, which makes sense obviously because we're running massive negative departures, but the devil is in the details.

I’ve learned to embrace the primal weenie within. Unleash when necessary lol

A lot of dumb stuff out there these days

I’m still skeptical that the ensembles have it right with regard to timing and amplitude. It’d be hard to put up a -10 month so a relaxation from what we’ve seen so far would not be surprising. The real question is if that precludes snow chances and pack retention for Christmas. Nobody cares if it’s 50 on Boxing Day if the day before was 30 with snow on the ground.

His own son

This place is a weenie insane asylum. My God.

The long range ensembles aren’t pretty, but, much like the “epic” winter patterns we’ve had at LR that didn’t materialize, show me the torch inside D7 and then I’ll believe. Of course, it being timed for Christmas with precision should give us all pause.

I’ll never forget there was some suppressed storm years ago in the Mid-Atlantic, and somebody from RIC posted about southern VA getting crushed in the main tracking thread. They almost started a civil war lol.

To be clear, I do not like this “torpedo” pattern for SNE. I’m just not convinced that we improve our odds of success or make out better snowfall wise with a dramatically slower pattern. And certainly it’s better for tracking mentally than having everyone here placing all their chips in D10 long shots and complaining about lack of activity in between.

For sure. We love each other but regional jealousy and hatred is a thing. Isn't that why the board was broken up into subforums? I mean, in the Mid-Atlantic the DC-Baltimore folks scoff at the highland folks. The RIC crew have to tread carefully when suppression favors them and bite their tongue when DC cashes in. Even here...I know we joke...but while I'd love to post more about the turn of events that has me getting crushed in SLK, nobody in CT or Mass really gives a damn about my upslope or clipper overperformances or -14 lows, and the NNE crew does not want to see backslapping from Chief Wiggum to Kev on a southern slider. The annual wintertime snow wars are unlike any other meteorological phenomena. It is wishing for your brother to fail. It is rejoicing in the ruin of your friend. It is hand to hand combat. I want everyone to be happy, sincerely, but God as my witness if the folks along the CT coast have to rain for me to get a foot of paste, I want it. If everyone south or east of me blowtorches in a Grinch storm cutting through Binghamton on Christmas Eve while I'm buried in SLK with SN+, I will sleep like a baby. I know others feel the exact same way whether they want to admit it or not.

That's the most important sentence. I don't think anyone would say this if fast flow led to numerous minor to moderate events over the last few years. We let the past cloud our judgement in the present. What makes us think that a slower pattern wouldn't lead us to the very same desolate road SNE has been on through the 2020s? Sure, maybe it would enhance the odds of phasing, but that doesn't mean it'd phase where we need it, and where we need it to can be very different depending on where you sit in this region. We'd just be placing the meteorological risk of a fail in a different basket. Winter tracking is brutal because all of us have our biases and defense mechanisms whether they are external or internal. It's always been about snow. It will always be about snow. Snow rules everything around us.

I totally get the angst with...you know, North Carolina having measurable snow and much of the subforum failing in the early December chance, but this stuff is a little short sighted, even for me who reminder: canceled winter early January last year and that was still too optimistic lol. We really want to cash in on the pattern before whatever relaxation, I've said it's imperative. But even if we didn't if we got some random clipper to drop an inch or two on Dec 24 most would be happy and turn the page to tracking for 2026. You can only rely on it so much, but not having an absolute blowtorch or well defined Grinch showing up at range is a good thing. A really good thing. By Christmas Day, BDL's monthly and seasonal normal are 7.6"/9.7" respectively. At BDR they are 4.0"/5.0". We should hope for climo, and I think it can be done, as much of a torpedo pattern this is. I loathe the fast flow overall for SNE, but I'd rather have that with plenty of opportunities for something than tracking one shortwave every 10 days.

Man it’s hard for me to imagine -40. That must’ve been wild.

Buckshot models. Wasn’t the EPS coldest just a few days ago? Coldest night of the season so far here. WXW1: 7.4° WXW2: -14.1° Shame I wasn’t there to get the VP2 up and running but that’s my first priority when I head back.

BDL -8.6° SLK -13.0° BDL is above monthly snow but below seasonal average. SLK doesn’t measure snow but…we deep winter so far up there…

That’s what WXW1 will be for

When you radiate to 20° that’s one thing, but when you’re radiating below zero, it’s man cold with or without wind.

19.8/1 here at WXW1. HFD is 21/-8. WXW2 is -2.9/-5.4. SLK is -11/-17 with mist.

Totally. There was snow cover from SLK all the way to northern CT on my ride back today. One patch of snow hanging on here in my front yard lol. We’re not that far off from snow cover across all of New England.