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bristolri_wx

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Everything posted by bristolri_wx

  1. bristolri_wx
    18Z HRRR for those interested. It runs out 48 hours every 6.
  2. bristolri_wx
    12Z GFS incoming... I predict cutter up the CT river... bullseye of 36" of snow in Waterbury...
  3. bristolri_wx
    He's probably excited because we haven't had a real snow storm or snow pack down here in over a year and a half...
  4. bristolri_wx
    The DGEX and NGM running on the Commodore 64 in JoeSnowBOS's basement is in agreement. But otherwise, not one other model looks like its in the GFS ballpark at the moment...
  5. bristolri_wx
    GEM looks good.
  6. bristolri_wx
    GFS most consistent? Not really... Also, I believe (but not 100% sure) that the NAM had same full sampling as GFS at this point, so if sampling was a variable there should have been a similar outcome, but they are rather different at this point.
  7. bristolri_wx
    I don't know if that was on air, but it was definitely on their web site, and maybe their Facebook page. I saw a handful of people re-post it last night and this morning on my Facebook feed, and got a few questions about it. Clearly some people thought that was the forecast.
  8. bristolri_wx
    From my eyes, GFS looks even more SE at hour 78/84.
  9. bristolri_wx
    Technology isn't black and white. Typing this on a new Apple MacBook Air which is incredible. I have Windows and Linux laptops within arms length. People like what they like.
  10. bristolri_wx
    The CMC global is as terrible as the GFS at times. But the RGEM and the RDPS are much better, especially on winter stuff here.
  11. bristolri_wx
    RJ Heim was silly for posting that graphic on the web site. It was all over Facebook last night and this morning.
  12. bristolri_wx
    Nice to see more Rhode Islander’s on the forum. We can all ensure the pain of the snow hole together. LOL...
  13. bristolri_wx
    This is what last winter and the pandemic has done to us!
  14. bristolri_wx
    I don’t think anyone is “wishcasting” here at moment: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/massachusetts/snow-depth-in/20201217-1800z.html Switch between the models available and tell us which one sticks out like a sore thumb? The evidence points right now that the GFS isn’t seeing something the other globals are, including the ICON.
  15. bristolri_wx
    Hey that’s improvement! It was cutting over Michigan a few runs ago. A few more days it will be off the North Carolina coast before it slings back to Minnesota.
  16. bristolri_wx
    We have had snow storms where the GFS does this 8 runs in a row, and hasn’t come around until it’s already snowing LOL. Of course this could be the solution but it’s in the minority of guidance at the moment.
  17. bristolri_wx
    Does anyone ever look at the 768 HR CFS on Pivotal Weather? Just curious if it's useful for anything. I know the surface/qpf stuff would be useless, but wondering if upper air, 850 temps, is even in the ballpark on the long range....
  18. bristolri_wx
    This thing is moving fast. I think 12" south of the pike until you get really close to the south coast of MA and RI seems more reasonable regardless of snowfall map output. To get more you're gonna need really high ratios. Maybe that happens, but I wouldn't expect to see accurate modeling of those kinds of ratios this far out.
  19. bristolri_wx
    Just flipped to large wet flakes (where I am) at Rhode Island College in Providence, which is on the NW side of the city..
  20. bristolri_wx
    Definitely better than expected here. Plus this is the type of rainstorm that really helps - light to moderate over a couple of days, not too much run off or flooding, drizzle in between showers. Maximum drought busting efficiency!
  21. bristolri_wx
    Yeah geez what a poor showing for modeling if this is the outcome. This type of waffling for precipitation outcomes shouldn’t be happening in the 72 hour window...
  22. bristolri_wx
    Never believed that output in the first place. Through Tuesday evening old GFS, new GFS, Euro, ICON, NAM are all in the .50 to 1.00" range for SNE still... Unless I'm looking at the wrong maps. Still wiggle room too. Some of the runs last night had less than a quarter inch of rain during yesterdays runs before they went deluge for a few runs...
  23. bristolri_wx
    The Euro shows Delta turning on the faucet for SENE.
  24. bristolri_wx
    I live in coastal RI. Any trickery for us would be appreciated.
  25. bristolri_wx
    11” total in Bristol. If the first 6” was a higher ratio rather than cement we would have been over a foot.
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