bristolri_wx

Does anyone ever look at the 768 HR CFS on Pivotal Weather? Just curious if it's useful for anything. I know the surface/qpf stuff would be useless, but wondering if upper air, 850 temps, is even in the ballpark on the long range....

This thing is moving fast. I think 12" south of the pike until you get really close to the south coast of MA and RI seems more reasonable regardless of snowfall map output. To get more you're gonna need really high ratios. Maybe that happens, but I wouldn't expect to see accurate modeling of those kinds of ratios this far out.

Just flipped to large wet flakes (where I am) at Rhode Island College in Providence, which is on the NW side of the city..

Delayed opening because of snow at Santa’s Village??? Is Rudolph out of town???

Definitely better than expected here. Plus this is the type of rainstorm that really helps - light to moderate over a couple of days, not too much run off or flooding, drizzle in between showers. Maximum drought busting efficiency!

Yeah geez what a poor showing for modeling if this is the outcome. This type of waffling for precipitation outcomes shouldn’t be happening in the 72 hour window...

Never believed that output in the first place. Through Tuesday evening old GFS, new GFS, Euro, ICON, NAM are all in the .50 to 1.00" range for SNE still... Unless I'm looking at the wrong maps. Still wiggle room too. Some of the runs last night had less than a quarter inch of rain during yesterdays runs before they went deluge for a few runs...

The Euro shows Delta turning on the faucet for SENE.

NHC:

Wow - the official NHC forecast track hasn't shifted for us in 24 hours. Go look at forecast 14A (2PM Fri), and that path is almost the exactly the same as the path at 18A (2PM today). Sure the models are going to keep moving the jackpot of precip at every model run, but we're talking about swings of a couple of hundred miles based in minor variations each run. You blend them together and right now most of us are getting at least 2" of rain, with pockets of 4", and that's been pretty steady over the last 24 hours as well - and much of that is coming well ahead of the "eye" of the storm. Looks like we'll be getting a pretty good rainstorm, with the intensity of a moderate nor'easter for those that end up on the eastern side of the eye, if anyone ends up there. I'm sticking to that until something shows me otherwise. Obviously LF in Florida changes things, but that hasn't happened yet, and if it does, it's going to give us plenty of time to adjust the forecast. There was never a consistent signal that this was going to be a strong storm/hurricane up in SNE once we got into the timeframe where the tropical models could provide forecasts for our area...

6z HWRF(s) and HMON both have this making landfall on the SC/NC border, staying inland for a bit then re-emerging and heading NE into New England. Not disliking that track, gets us the rain we need without a ton of damaging wind... seems like Euro op is on its own at the moment.

I live in coastal RI. Any trickery for us would be appreciated.

11” total in Bristol. If the first 6” was a higher ratio rather than cement we would have been over a foot.

Because they have 5-6”, and I have 9”. Probably wasn’t in the good band this morning as long. I was already at 5-6” by 10 AM.

I’m at 9” in Bristol. Unusually, we were in a good band for a while. Picking up again too. Confident we can get close to a foot here.

Yes the heavy band have been over us most of the morning. May have lost an inch to melting bottom layer is very slushy.

5” snow in Bristol. Heavy snow right now...

It has occasional hiccup runs as well let’s see if it’s a trend.