bristolri_wx

Not feeling confident this is going to happen but we still have a few hours for some surprises to occur.

Yup... the radar looked promising this morning with the line of convection associated with the front looking pretty robust in PA and NY... but it hit a wall in southern New England so far.... some cells here and there but overall more . Not sure what the fuss was about from the various forecasting agencies... maybe I'll reverse jinx myself with this post.

HRRR says between 6pm to 1am to get some activity in RI/SE MA. Let's see if that happens. I would just be happy with heavy rain at this point, it's quite parched here, we've missed on almost every rain chance this month except for a couple.

Part 2...

30 days of high heat in the midwest according to the 30 day GEFS... not as much for us...

I appreciate and love the photos that members post here. Unfortunately in most cases they have been shrunk down to a size that makes them not look great if you want to use them for a wallpaper/desktop picture on a computer, tablet, or phone. I thought it might be a good idea to create a shared Google Drive as a repository to post the full size versions of the photos we're seeing here, for those willing to share. I've already set it up (you get 15GB of storage for free from Google), but wanted to see how others in the forum felt about this. Here's the link to the shared folder on Google Drive: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1fn4cL9VTB1viOiTYA2-BlsTsxZEzeHIJ?usp=sharing If members decide that they want to participate, maybe we can create a thread dedicated to photos, or something like that. What I'm looking forward to is being able to use some of these beautiful photos on my desktop as I stare all day at my computer 6 days a week, and hopefully share some of my own as well. Thoughts?

Taking this quick research a step further - going back to 2000, by the last week of September, at least 2/3 of the years have moderate drought or greater conditions covering large geographic areas of New England. So to summarize over the last 22 years: Drought isn't unusual in New England in July. Droughts lasting large parts of the summer also aren't unusual. Droughts usually end in the Fall and Winter for New England. Not sure where to pull data for time periods for time periods before the year 2000, but heck, it's been dry, but eventually the pattern will change at some point, and it's not anything new.

Been going back through the drought monitor records. I'm not sure why there's so much hyperbole in terms of the dry weather we're encountering. It's not necessarily unusual for the region to be in some sort of drought this time of the year. Seems to be based more on the oscillation of the patterns than anything else. Going back 10 years, about half of them have had large parts of the region encountering drought conditions in mid July. Their map archive goes back through the year 2000. There was a period between 2001 - 2004 also featured drought conditions in mid July.

Hmm I was not prepared to play the “sun angle” drinking game today. Usually I only have the bottle nearby in February and March!

Been watching distant lightning and hearing occasional rumbles of thunder for over an hour now. Northern RI getting the goods tonight. Doubt anything holds together here. Dry as a bone.

Isn’t climo for this time of year for Hartford 85/65? +/- 5 degrees doesn’t seem like a “Furnace”… though it’s probably a tick above what I has been on a few of those days. Lets see if it verifies… you have been posting these almost daily. Looks like a high percentage of Euro input on the extended forecast, which hasn’t been working out too well as of late.

Ugh… can we please get back to some real music about drinking alcohol…

Bob’s eye went right over my house. We went outside for a few before the other side of the eye wall game through. I was 13 at the time - left the town a huge mess, many trees down in Bristol. My grandmother said it was the worst since Carol. We’ve been pretty lucky since then.

I’m burning in anticipation…

October? It doesn’t even last until Friday. Not sure there’s anything to prevent the see-saw type pattern to continue.

This is silly. While there may be seasonal adjustments in patterns and pattern shifts, there's no guarantee Peter ever needs to be robbed to pay Paul. It's why chaos theory is part of the forecasting paradigm...

The Euro wasn't exactly head-of-the-class in predicting the pattern we are currently in, in the long term a few months back. No doubt this pattern will break at some point, but also not a given that the Euro is sniffing out correctly. Will gladly continue to take the 80's temps and 50's/60's dew points as much as possible. Can't believe there are people that do not like this weather. I at least understand the whole not liking cold and snow thing - that's an acquired taste, and that type of weather can also be annoying. But this is as pleasant as it gets for humans to live in...

Username checks out...

Some of the best Independence Day weather in New England in a while. Great cookout/fireworks weather. Enjoy!

Zip, zilch, zero…

Air fryers are glorified convection ovens. There’s ton of recipes and directions online. Many “Instant Pots” are also pressure cookers in most cases. I don’t think they are difficult to figure out, though you may need to do a quick read of the manual to figure out how to switch between different modes. Enjoy the free appliance!

Really good soaking in progress here. I’m contrast, Newport getting almost nothing… interesting drive home hit a wall of rain.

They can be wrong too…

The Japanese Beetle is native to Japan. Not sure if that’s a good comparison…

I’ll totally take 70’s on the fourth. There’s nothing worse than roasting in the sun for two hours at the Bristol parade. Not as much shade as there used to be do to trees dying…