bristolri_wx

You coming over later to shovel my sleet? Whatever happens, will happen, but I can both enjoy the current and wonder about the switchover for us. It's what we do down here... NAM 3K moved the sleet line 25-30 miles south, similar to HRRR. More QPF on Monday.

Just correcting my temp to 11. For some reason my phone is advertising that it's 7 degrees warmer and I took for granted that it was correct.

Yeah. To be honest the sleet only bothers me for cleanup reasons. I don't have a nice two stage to cut through it when snow ends up wet and dense.

Alternating between moderate and heavy snow here. Couple of inches down by eye. Up to 17. Hoping to avoid the sleet after 8PM as much as possible, looks like I'm right on the battleground area/line. Voting for the HRRR today.

He was told this two days ago. The issue at this point is the repetitiveness of the posts.... the snow will be here when he gets back. It ain't going anywhere anytime soon, even if we have a dry spell this upcoming week.

Expect about 10 in Newport. I'm expecting about 12-14 here. If I was a betting man I would take the over, not the under. While the NAM does like to sniff out the warm layer, I think for this particular storm, its an outlier and should not be weighed heavily in the forecast. Usually by 12 hours before go time, there's more consensus with the NAM when it's physics are picking up on something earlier than the others. However, no other model shows as much of a warm layer than the NAM brothers are right now. It's definitely gonna sleet in Newport - but not as much as depicted on the NAM. Enjoy being pleasantly surprised.

Isn’t this the third or fourth event with a modeled Norlun of this season? (Monday)

It’s been 800 for many runs now, while 700 and 850 remain below freezing by several degrees.

I feel like this is exactly why this is a now cast kind of storm. You can’t say that the models are totally wrong with things like jackpots and sleet lines, but it’s a very anomalous setup where the models may be “guessing” a little more than usual, and we still see discrepancies 24 hours out…

This page seems to discuss how NWS offices/mets are to create operational snowfall forecasts, and how not to, based on model output: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/forecast-guide/nwp-snow-accumulation-products

That's a lot of clouds and moisture on their way...

Our AI overlords are not good at weathermaps but very good at weenies.

Yes we need the free liberated maps rather than the governed ones!

What a way to end that 6" storm streak. Ka-boom!!

As some others have posted, we are lucky we are getting this much for a SWFE. Ordinarily they do not perform well in coastal plain, and they often end as rain, not sleet, for those closer to the south coastal areas. I’ve seen as much as 6-8” wash away to nothing or almost nothing at the end in some of the more potent ones. 8-12” with sleet at the end isn’t the end of the world. Canada actually being cold again has been the key this year. We have seen more favorable setups in previous seasons but no cold to tap into and we end up with mostly slop.

It can get a nickname when it actually goes operational. The RRFS A on Pivotal has already been deemed a “failure” by NOAA and will never be used for official forecasts. All the FV3 (of which RRFS is one) based models are going to be replaced, unless I’m misunderstanding what I have read. The next version based on different physics is still considered even more experimental. So maybe the nickname should be “cancelled”? LOL

Look at both and compare. If Kuchera is higher, then expect that there will be higher than 10-1 ratios, but probably not to the extreme that KR is depicting. Then look at QPF and compare the three. CT Rain described other things to look at that are the factor. There isn’t going to be one model generated map that will accurately show snowfall in most forms. It’s why in most cases maps are made by each site/station/service. The NBM may come close as NOAA does have some formulas built into that but it’s not perfect either, as you may have seen from earlier NMB map posts about this storm.

A little worried about the sleet on the mesos now for those of us south and east of 95. NAM 3K and RRFS A look very sleety, HRRR is a bit better. Globals think differently or aren't picking it up...

The 3K looked better at 0z at 54H than 18Z at 60 as well...

This is a good map. Sums it up. Even if there's sleet along the southern areas, it mostly falls after the bulk of the heavy stuff falls. I think the NAM turns down the volume in subsequent runs...

For those who don't mind weather governance.

Well these NAM 3K soundings are not the governing voice of the forecast, so you are free to form your own opinion.

What a sneaky bugger that warm nose at around 800mb! Still snow, but mutha-fooka... (edited for better images)