Wxoutlooksblog

55 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Pure isolation. Outside of what’s currently over SI, and Crooklyn, it’s weak sauce. @LongBeachSurfFreak JB has a chance. Out in Suffolk it’s blue skies 

Storms will die off before they get out there. They are WAR protected. WAR has built in northern edge kind of  a w-sw to e-ne flat line covering the ocean waters to our south and east. This is why the storms and cold fronts are not barreling on through and the storms just move very slowly to about central Nassau then die out then they reform back to the west or over NYC Metro Region. This WAR at this point is NOT a heat producer just a protective wall effect shielding the affluent out on the east end and on Fire Island. 

WX/PT

Sky just opened up. Loud thunder in Douglaston.

WX/PT

I'm still not seeing any significant stretch of 90+ days for Central Park. Yes we'll be close any of the next 3-4 days but I think they'll fall just short most of them. Either storms, on shore winds, storm debris, haze are a variety of ways they can fall short. They'll come close again around the 12th, 13th, and 15th or 16th maybe. 

WX/PT

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Was planning to boat tomorrow but looks like the worst day for storms for the island. Not liking the forecast at all. 
 

Cancelled a trip to Fire Island based on the latest weather forecast model data. There certainly is a lot of support for an extremely stormy July 4th on LI. But it could almost as easily wind up mostly over the east end and Connecticut. I'm ambivalent about our cancelled plans.

WX/PT

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro is more pessimistic but it still doesn't look as bad as June 

I think it will be a little warmer than June but that's normally the case. I do not see the scenario that was shown on the 06Z GFS this morning actually happening when had the western ridge and WAR actually hooking up a situation that would probably dictate an extended heatwave. I think cold fronts are going to keep coming with lots of moist upper air disturbances in the flow off of the Pacific moving across the country. In short I think any hot weather during July will be short-lived interrupted either by a cold front or a soggy wet system moving in from the south or west. And as of now,  I do not see Central Park reaching 90 more than one or two times in the first two weeks of July and probably less. If we get there on Monday the 3rd there's a good chance of some very strong to severe storms to end it quickly.

WX/PT

Tonight's run of the GFS and CMC little if any chance of 90 on Monday, slightly better chance Thursday the 6th or Friday the 7th. I still really believe we're getting to the 15th without any 90's at the Park for July.

WX/PT

There were a couple of 90 degree days on the ECMWF for next week on today's run we'll see if they're there tomorrow. The 3rd, 6th, and 7th.

WX/PT

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Could the high dews forecast for early July prop up overnight lows enough to compensate for BN highs?

Maybe maybe not. I think we have to wait to see how that unfolds and to see what the second half of July is going to look like. With these kinds of summers we sometimes get some early cool high pressure systems dropping down from Canada. I'm not ruling anything out just saying keep your heat expectations low this summer around here.

WX/PT

5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

No real heat in sight

Picking right up on that last night's Euro along with today's GFS and CMC are again picking up on upper level low over eastern Canada that will renew the cyclonic flow of northwesterlies in the upper atmosphere for the northeastern U.S. including NYC through most or all of the first half of July. With this unfortunate development if you appreciate the sunny hot inferno typical of mid summer with high temperatures 90+ you probably have to wait until late in July or August. My anticipation after June averaged about 2.0 degrees below normal in NYC is for July to be almost a repeat performance the one caveat being the possibility of above normal night-time low temperatures compensating a little bit. But I'm not seeing any 90+ degree weather for NYC at this point through July 15th and I am seeing a continuation of frequent thunderstorm days, some smoke and haze, marine layers at times, all of which June featured. We're catching sort of a break today with lower humidity levels and a temporary let up in the cyclonic flow or upper low which had sat to our west for days and days but that let up will be over by Sunday.

WX/PT

4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m pretty invested at this point in seeing if we can actually score a cooler than normal summer (relatively speaking). I would have to think an eventual flip to our typical summer inferno is coming by mid July and is more likely than the alternative, but still I’m finding this pretty interesting. Especially with so much heat to our southwest. 

I think there is at least a 40% chance of finishing this summer a bit cooler than normal. I'm not sure at this point whether there is that typical mid July inferno this year at least not if this pattern continues. I think a day or two here and there of 86-91 degree warmth/heat is more likely this summer. I would think that whatever heat we would have if any August would probably be when most of it would occur. The current pattern is kinda locked in for now.

WX/PT

Next potential of 90+ temperatures in NYC delayed to July 6th-9th and may actually get delayed until even later. Onshore winds, marine layers, and showers/storms in the area (not necessarily rain where you live) will keep most of us from getting there for a while yet.

WX/PT

2 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

This summer basically never got started. Are there any signs that we break into a real summer pattern any time soon? Hot, sun, beach, pool weather. The 85-95 with sun for an extended stretch, pool temps warm and you can go to the beach with a confident hot and sunny summer day type weather? 

Not terribly extended but July 4th-7th perhaps. At least there are signs on most of the models and ensembles. But the Euro last night backed off of it a little keeping it stormier.

WX/PT

They've really fallen apart over the last 30 minutes as they moved quickly across the area. Hopefully it will work out better tomorrow.

WX/PT

Here they come Staten Island, Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau. Our turn has arrived. Still plenty of lightning and thunder with these even though they're slightly weakened from an hour earlier. They still pack a punch.

WX/PT

Storm zone is gradually starting to shift to the east just a bit tonight. The period of time from midnight to mid morning Tuesday has potential to be a bit noisy with heavy downpours from time to time. Strong to severe storm potential resumes tomorrow PM and may even recur Wednesday PM....not sure about Wed. Thursday could be a little drier again.

WX/PT

With the upper low to the west the storms develop and hook to the left. As the upper low moves out slowly to the north and east development of storms will further east but also further north. NYC area residents looking to get their lawns watered have to hope the shift is now not too far the north and more to the east. The positive is that there's so much moisture and lift in the atmosphere over the Ohio Valley that has to sooner or later come east the odds are most of us will do well particularly later Monday into Tuesday when some severe wx is possible.

WX/PT

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

78 / 68 here.  Sun out.  The tropical style pattern continues and when its sunny its very warm (mid / upper 80s) and when storms go they will be slow moving soakers.  Mon (6/26) - Tue (6/27) look to feature the highest rain / storm concentration.  Wed could be similar to today with Thu (6/29) and Fri (6/30) more frequent storms.  Overall still think the area will get >2 inches of rain with spots to >5 inches under the heaviest rains.  Overall warm / steamy (humid dewpoints upper 60s - low 70s). Rockies / TX /OK Ridge firing rounds of strong heat up and out.

Holiday weekend flow comes around more S Westerly and while storm chances remain it will be less widespread and higher heat potential as indications of the stonger heat nearby with >18c 850s near by.  7/1 - 7/4 looks warm and storm chances 7/1-7/2 with a drier summer(ier) 7/3 and July fourth.

 

Western Atlantic ridge on the move west to open July first pushing into the Southeast,  then more Bermuda postion potentially which could setup a more sustained warm pattern but look for storms and rain chances / humidity to linger Hazy maybe hot (when sunny) and humid.  

6/24

 

 

Next potential 90 in NYC 7/3-7/5. Then much wetter weather resumes with the next potential for heat 7/11-7/15.

WX/PT

For the radar look to the Virginia coast. Rain with some embedded thunderstorms there is headed up the eastern seaboard and if it holds together it should produce for all of LI and possibly NYC later tonight into early Saturday.

WX/PT

Again, temperatures are going to warm for the July 2nd-5th time-frame. I think it will be just be a question of how much of the rain and associated clouds with all these disturbances moving across the country affects us as to whether or not we can get into the upper 80s to lower 90s during this time frame. If we can dry out for a couple of days, maybe the 4th/5th, we could have a shot at 90. If clouds and rain persists, we will not have a shot at 90...maybe low-mid 80s.

WX/PT

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Still feels chilly outside 

I think the next 90+ potential comes during the July 2nd-5th time-frame but that doesn't mean we'll definitely get there. But I do think we have a shot at upper 80s to lower 90s over that time. Initially it looks as though the winds might again be too southerly so honing in on and hoping for July 4th, 5th.

WX/PT

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

From the confluence brick wall to the Hudson River brick wall. 

I tend to agree with a somewhat bullish forecast for showers and storms over most of the NYC Metro this weekend. With dew points slowly rising if the sun breaks out for just a little with the lift moving in the atmosphere should destabilize and showers and storms should pop. I think over time these shower and storms will affect the entire region but not necessarily inland areas at the same time as coastal areas. 

Also, I'm beginning to get a feeling we may actually see a day or two of heat interrupt this gloomy pattern sometime on or just after the July 4th weekend.

WX/PT

6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Pretty good discussion from Mt.Holly on the rain and thunderstorm potential over the next several days beginning Thursday.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Following a record dry May and a fairly dry start to June, the
northern mid-Atlantic is looking at an extended period of warm,
humid and rather wet weather for the end of the week, the
weekend, and even into next week. The flow throughout much of
the atmosphere will become well-aligned from the south, and
remain that way for much of the long term forecast period. Cut-
off low pressure over the Southeast US will only slowly lift
northward toward the Great Lakes, then drift eastward across our
region over the weekend. Meanwhile, longer range model guidance
is tentatively in good agreement of another fairly strong
upper-level trough ejecting eastward from the northern Rockies
toward the Great Lakes early next week. That system may amplify
as it settles into the long wave trough set up along the East
Coast, reinforcing warm, moist southerly flow across our region.
The airmass from Friday through the weekend looks quite
convective, and showers/t-storms will tend to be enhanced with 
daytime heating, particularly if there is any sunshine. While
it will not rain all the time, and any one day through this
period does not look anomalously moist for June, the pattern
will be capable of producing heavy rain, particularly with any
training convection or when the flow aloft weakens. Despite the
drought in some parts of our region, flooding may become an
issue particularly next week if this pattern comes to fruition
and the ground becomes more saturated. 

&&

If it were possible I'd be in 200% agreement.

WX/PT

50 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The GFS shows how to end the month with normal precipitation as it catches up to where it should be by ruining a whole week.

Last week it had all 90's starting the 22nd.---as I pointed out.     Now its all Wet.  

There are so many things now going against a hot summer here. Firstly the models almost all agree on varying depth of an upper low in the northwest Atlantic. One after another we see disturbances moving in off of the Pacific, the jet stream about 400-500 south of where it normally is during the summer months. And as for the ridge out west, it really looks as though it's mostly going to stay there. Now to the south of us, it's a different story as from time to time pieces of the ridge break off and move east but they are mostly suppressed south of the NYC Metro with the upper low over the northwest Atlantic dominating NYC points north and east for the majority of the time, and if not temporary HP onshore winds and marine layers. Meanwhile, fronts look as though they'll get stuck right over us bringing at times above normal cloudcover, showers and storms and sometimes rain. I am thinking 15 or fewer 90+ days at the Park and fewer than 10 wouldn't shock me. Enjoy!

WX/PT

5 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

Just missed the storm by a mile to my west, a little breezy here

Had more thunderstorms these past 2 weeks than all of last summer

Look for that to continue.

WX/PT

I think there is still uncertainty beyond three or four days whether we get a good Bermuda HP to build or one with an upper low denting the western side of it. The models go back and forth this morning's runs so far more along the stronger HP again with perhaps at least a couple of 90+ days. But I'm not totally convinced yet.

WX/PT