Wxoutlooksblog

6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Pretty good discussion from Mt.Holly on the rain and thunderstorm potential over the next several days beginning Thursday.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Following a record dry May and a fairly dry start to June, the
northern mid-Atlantic is looking at an extended period of warm,
humid and rather wet weather for the end of the week, the
weekend, and even into next week. The flow throughout much of
the atmosphere will become well-aligned from the south, and
remain that way for much of the long term forecast period. Cut-
off low pressure over the Southeast US will only slowly lift
northward toward the Great Lakes, then drift eastward across our
region over the weekend. Meanwhile, longer range model guidance
is tentatively in good agreement of another fairly strong
upper-level trough ejecting eastward from the northern Rockies
toward the Great Lakes early next week. That system may amplify
as it settles into the long wave trough set up along the East
Coast, reinforcing warm, moist southerly flow across our region.
The airmass from Friday through the weekend looks quite
convective, and showers/t-storms will tend to be enhanced with 
daytime heating, particularly if there is any sunshine. While
it will not rain all the time, and any one day through this
period does not look anomalously moist for June, the pattern
will be capable of producing heavy rain, particularly with any
training convection or when the flow aloft weakens. Despite the
drought in some parts of our region, flooding may become an
issue particularly next week if this pattern comes to fruition
and the ground becomes more saturated. 

&&

If it were possible I'd be in 200% agreement.

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50 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The GFS shows how to end the month with normal precipitation as it catches up to where it should be by ruining a whole week.

Last week it had all 90's starting the 22nd.---as I pointed out.     Now its all Wet.  

There are so many things now going against a hot summer here. Firstly the models almost all agree on varying depth of an upper low in the northwest Atlantic. One after another we see disturbances moving in off of the Pacific, the jet stream about 400-500 south of where it normally is during the summer months. And as for the ridge out west, it really looks as though it's mostly going to stay there. Now to the south of us, it's a different story as from time to time pieces of the ridge break off and move east but they are mostly suppressed south of the NYC Metro with the upper low over the northwest Atlantic dominating NYC points north and east for the majority of the time, and if not temporary HP onshore winds and marine layers. Meanwhile, fronts look as though they'll get stuck right over us bringing at times above normal cloudcover, showers and storms and sometimes rain. I am thinking 15 or fewer 90+ days at the Park and fewer than 10 wouldn't shock me. Enjoy!

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5 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

Just missed the storm by a mile to my west, a little breezy here

Had more thunderstorms these past 2 weeks than all of last summer

Look for that to continue.

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I think there is still uncertainty beyond three or four days whether we get a good Bermuda HP to build or one with an upper low denting the western side of it. The models go back and forth this morning's runs so far more along the stronger HP again with perhaps at least a couple of 90+ days. But I'm not totally convinced yet.

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3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The Euro drew up these kinds of solutions for a week only to drop them in favor of a stronger Bermuda HP for one and a half days now back to its original thinking. You think it flips back to a strong Bermuda HP? Maybe but I doubt it.

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If the Bermuda HP that builds is too strong or displaced further north the heat will be in Burlington Montreal, Albany, and Bangor but not here. It's another one of three possible outcomes.

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

light to moderate rain-this batch is dying as it moves east....doesn't look like much behind it

If temperatures warm dramatically once the rain ends don't be surprised to see some showers and storms pop. But we'll see if there is too much cloudcover or if it takes too long to get out from underneath what's over us.

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro op keeps showing these soakers in the medium range only to disappear as we get closer. This probably isn’t any diff

The Euro drew up these kinds of solutions for a week only to drop them in favor of a stronger Bermuda HP for one and a half days now back to its original thinking. You think it flips back to a strong Bermuda HP? Maybe but I doubt it.

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European model back to wetter less warm scenario now with the upper lows over the southeast and southeasterly winds here. It goes back and forth. Followed by a mid Atlantic soaker.

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Getting some good rain now here. A few rumbles in the distance.

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Most of the models now seeming to adjusting to a considerably warmer look for the last 8 days of June. We'll see if they don't flip back to the extremely wet pattern but the 00Z models tonight so far showing an outside shot at 90 on at least a couple of days in the last 8 days of of the month. The coastal storms and inside runners of only a couple of days back seem to have pretty much vanished on the most recent maps. 

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6 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

It is thundering, and pouring here in Astoria right now. No hail, but big fat rain drops.

I'm sandwiched for lunchtime between that one and the one to my e. I think the Astoria storm eventually has eyes at me and eventually will be a hail producer.

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2 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Had lightning strike near me about 15 minutes ago and nearly crapped my pants. A 2 minute downpour followed

I had that a half hour earlier now here I go again.

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Meanwhile here's what was supposed to be one of the 2-3 hot days at the end of June today on the GFS.

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We could talk about if El Nino wasn't setting up but I think things would be very different right now if that wasn't happening. Entering into El Nino will not be good if you like a long hot summer here. Once the El Nino is established or weakening could also be a very different story.

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36 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m here for a cooler to normal summer. Doesn’t have to be 90+ with dews at ‘pea soup’ levels to have enjoyable, sunny summer days. A lot of my dysphoria for our climate is due to the oppressive heat of recent years.

Aside from that, within the past 20 years haven’t ‘cooler’ summers preceded a few of our better winters? Not implying a correlation, just noting from memory what I remember seeing.  

Not in my memory. I think it can work both ways. A few examples of extremely hot summers followed by great winters correct me if I'm wrong---1966, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010....just to name a few. But of course hot summer of 1983 was followed by a not so great winter of 83-84. So I think it works both ways and that it's not a great correlation. Another hot summer 1991 was followed by a not very good winter 91-92. 

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I'm again not believing the hype for heat at the end of this month. We keep seeing interludes where it looks real on the models only to rapidly disappear into onshore southeasterly or easterly winds marine layers galore yes higher humidity but probably also periods of rain. The heights come up some but with the developing El Nino jet stream energy and storms passing over us or even to our south, jet stream about 750 miles further south than normal, I say a cooler wetter than average summer is on the way. Now that doesn't mean there won't be the isolated days of heat in between the rain and fog makers. Maybe even a rare two days in the row at times. But I see this summer ending up with a grand total of 5-15 90+ days at Central Park.

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Though .35-.55" rainfall tonight was not a very big deal most of the models suggest above normal rainfall for the next ten days. We should see more rain on Wednesday.

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

makes sense given the cutoff lows.   So far June has been a drier version of 2009

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Anything is big after 2022-23. I'm guessing (first guess) we'll get 10-20" of snow next winter.

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Heights building but no heatwave with an easterly wind.

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What we're looking at here is temperatures gradually warming up over time but a pattern closer to winter 1960-61 than any pattern we've ever  seen during a summer. Maybe a Donna look-alike will come up the coast.

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Also back to my cooler summer outlook. When a piece of the heat ridge breaks off unfortunately this is where the high pressure will often end up. This is a cool outcome with surface winds off of the relatively cool ocean waters.

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28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

still looks like a trough over the NE thought.....

Thank you Brian. The best of the ridge remains west of us with only a piece breaking off and moving eastward once in a while. I would be surprised if July averages out much if at all above normal in NYC.

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19 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July.

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When the models indicated a change to much warmer/much colder, building ridge, deepening trough and kept postponing it usually never happened. This needs to be watched. It is not impossible that we are in the beginnings of cool summer from beginning to end with only a few isolated hot days and NO prolonged heat or even warmth. We've had these before--1996,1997, 2004, etc.

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I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wonder if this ends up being it for the day...models missed this action as well.

I think this is only the beginning of a busy day we'll see. Eyes to the radar not the models for these. With cold air aloft and energized jet these could pop at a moments notice as we get just a little daytime heating.

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