Wxoutlooksblog

Close call for 90 at the Park in the next hour or so then high cloudiness begins to stream up from the south as the winds gradually kick around to more southerly. I think it would be the last 90 at the Park for at least 2-3 weeks if they even get there.

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18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Since we have a westerly flow later in the week and not S, it can be an overperformer. We roast when we get these westerly downslope air masses. 

I think for somebody 90 is within reach. 

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6 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Probably because it’s too early to make any forecast as to what the final week of April will look like. I mean two weeks ago there was no sign of any warmth for this upcoming week.

Actually there was. Almost every GFS operational run then CMC and Euro showed it clearly. In April when you get 564dm thicknesses here on light northwesterly winds or light variable winds and no moisture around you're going to be above normal.

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14 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

That’s exactly what happened last April. Anyway, models are suggesting that the cool-off peaks around the 19th then it trends warmer again.

EPS is right about normal. I'm really not at this point seeing ensemble maps that would support above normal temperatures for the last 8 or 9 days of April.

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58 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Up to 52 with bright sunshine after a low of 29.  Week of warmth and sunshine 4/10 - 4/16, before we cooldown between 4/18 - 4/21 or so.  

I think that this month may not end up in the top ten warmest Aprils. It looks to me like the NYC Metro Region has two very above normal days then a little less above normal for a day or two then probably near to perhaps slightly below normal normal for the rest of the month and kind of wet. My thinking is that we might have to wait several weeks before we get into more above normal temperatures again, sometime around mid May. But Thursday & Friday this week could be mid-upper 80s with a chance that somebody hits 90.

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NAM now gets NYC to 80 tomorrow. Maybe they'll get there. Extremely warm pattern ahead with a reasonable chance that Central Park gets to 90 degrees at some point this month.

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Was their any doubt that we would torch? New climo 

 

80’s are a lock Thursday 

West of NYC.

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6 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Maybe our first 80 degree readings around April 6th? 

Not impossible. Will depend on cloudcover and how southerly vs. westerly the winds.

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45 minutes ago, romba said:

Very fair, but at this juncture I feel that with each passing 6 hours the odds of a significant correction get smaller and smaller. It’s getting late early, to quote the great Yogi.

Again don't agree. If we are getting heavy snow or moderate snow, it's the day after tomorrow. There is lots of time or corrections either way. Anyone remember Boxing Day?

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8 minutes ago, romba said:

Plus RGEM and latest NAM 12k. So basically all the models. RAP and HRRR are still out of range so I wouldn’t put any credence in them, Euro has shifted over to the GFS, which is quite frankly embarrassing. UKIE is useless these days too.

 

NYC proper is pretty much out of it unless 1-3 inches of slop on street corners after an inch+ of rain is what you’re looking for. 

In other words, the snow would begin in about 36 hours but you are tossing all the global model runs other than the ones from the last 7 hours? I don't agree with that. The weather forecast models over history have notoriously shifted back and forth prior to storm events whether they verified or not. I think it's early and very exaggerated with such a close call to at this point say the NYC proper is "pretty much out of it".

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54 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro takes it away…oh well 

That's one run on a weekend.

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Yeah, I wouldn't bet on NAM but would I bet on any of the others? Not really. There's still lots of uncertainty. These models are not as good as they should be. If I were at this point with the NGM and ETA  I'd feel better.

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If NAM were right (rare prior to 6 hours in advance) we would have normal or above normal snowfall for winter 2022-2023..lol.

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Though the insane high amounts now shown on the models are possible, forecasting this storm I would wait one more model run before going crazy. Tomorrow is going to be all rain. There's 12 more hours to alert the public and 36 more hours of shopping time. And half of this 24" of snow for LGA falls on a northwest wind. Very unusual but with those vertical velocities it's possible but extremely rare. So for now, I'm going for 6-12" for the NYC Metro with more north and west and higher elevations. Winter Storm Watches should be up for the entire area no later than tonight.

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7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Another way to look at it-the 700mb low and vertical velocity (lift). Notice how it is well placed for New England because these dynamics get going a little too late for NYC. You want to be just NW of the 700mb low to get into the really good/intense banding. Here's 72hr

78hr-at this point we're probably getting some wraparound snow around the closed/stacked upper low but you can see overall the lift is weakening because the low is stacked. We can see clearly how we want this dynamic happening sooner/SW for our subforum. It's the problem we have all the time with these late developing Miller B type lows. But this is the GGEM outcome, GFS was more favorable.

And before 72hr we're too warm in the preceding airmass, and we don't get the benefit of strong lift/dynamics to help overcome it unless you're inland and above probably 500-600ft.

Great analysis!

5 minutes ago, KeithB said:

Wow. Maybe this trip that I just ranted about taking will be much closer then a 2:15 drive. Might be more like 30 minutes. lol. Or maybe there is a miracle of god and Rockland County actually hits a big snowstorm and I can stay home! 

When it's this close it's over until it's over. The ECMWF which last run had the low near Boston now has it over Cape Cod which is an improvement. It also intensifies further south, also an improvement over last run. And on Wednesday it moves away extremely slowly and there would probably be, if these maps are correct, precipitation rotating around the storm's center back into parts of the NYC Metro from the north and east until around mid-day.

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8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

In this case most of us want it to tuck, theres no cold air supply so we are dependent on the storm and the CCB band smashing the area. The more tucked runs seem to actually be snowier. Too far west obviously would be a problem but right now we need a bit of a west shift on the globals.  

I would not entirely agree that there's no cold air supply. The cold is not extreme and it is marginal but to say there's no cold air supply is wrong. There is a HP system wrapped around the Norlun signature trough and that HP is marginally cold enough. In addition, if the low is as tucked as NAM shows you'll see a period of east southeasterly winds off of the relatively warm ocean causing temperatures to rise into the 40s. If you get that and then dynamic cooling you're not going to cool enough in the NYC Metro to see accumulating snow until it's too late, maybe not even then.

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There are some patterns in which the NAM performs better and some when it's performance is horrible. It's been pretty bad lately more towards the bottom of it's performance levels.

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If what the NAM shows tonight were the final track most of the NYC Metro Region would see little if any snow. Maybe a period of rain/sleet/snow mix at the start and then just heavy rain. The low hasn't even begun to bomb out as the European has repeatedly indicated it would and it's tucked into the NJ coastline. Not good. But the NAM's accuracy range is about 6 hours and we are a long ways off from that.

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I would much rather see the Euro where it is at this point than closer in. Anything too close probably ends up tracking right over us or to our west and all rain. The current track and energy transfer is perfect to me at this range for evolving into a mid March frozen precip event.

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26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

48 and sunshine. Ready for spring. 

Still a couple of significant wintry weather threats IMO including next weekend. I think consistently spring type temperatures 50s/60s are still at least two-three weeks away. We'll get a day or two here and there in between bouts of cold in the meantime.

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS says game over for winter. The so called favorable period is gone. 

Why? 

The massive north of Hudson ridge links with southern ridge and creates a pseudo omega high pattern. 

The problem is the blocking north is so powerful that it overwhelms the pattern and it's placed too far south. We saw that in December too 

So yeah if the GFS is correct then better luck next season and we can wrap things up. 

I don't know why you'd say that so certainly. There's plenty of cold air still and as we know, the maps more than seven days out are rarely correct. While the later it gets the chances of significant wintry weather decrease there have been major winter storms into April and as long as there's cold air around, there'a a chance.

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Some of what appear to be snow bands just about now moving into upper Manhattan appear to be increasing in areal coverage and intensity. The next 2-3 hours could feature 1-2"/hour snowfall rates at times leaving some locations with up to 6" or possibly even a bit more. I'm thinking North Shore LI, Coastal Ct. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not much south of I-78 either. Way too warm. 

I think I'll be lucky to see an inch.

Here in eastern Queens on the north shore I'm not expecting much more than an inch or two if that.

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I think some folks on LI who may be expecting 3-5" may get disappointed. It's just not cold enough and there's not enough vertical velocity with most of it being offshore or to our north and west. The s-se wind doesn't help either. This air can only cool so much and in order to pile up you need maximum intensity which I don't think is going to last long enough or steadily enough.

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