Wxoutlooksblog

19 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July.

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When the models indicated a change to much warmer/much colder, building ridge, deepening trough and kept postponing it usually never happened. This needs to be watched. It is not impossible that we are in the beginnings of cool summer from beginning to end with only a few isolated hot days and NO prolonged heat or even warmth. We've had these before--1996,1997, 2004, etc.

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I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July.

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wonder if this ends up being it for the day...models missed this action as well.

I think this is only the beginning of a busy day we'll see. Eyes to the radar not the models for these. With cold air aloft and energized jet these could pop at a moments notice as we get just a little daytime heating.

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Just had a one boom and it's over kinda thunderstorm with very little rain.

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With the exception of the brief 2 days warmth June 1st-2nd the cool late spring into early summer continues. Though we could see another brief shot at warmth or a day of heat sometime between the 12th and 20th any prolonged heat should wait until after June 22nd. I'm forecasting temperatures this summer here to average near to below normal temperatures but with several very hot periods. I believe it's a summer of extremes, when it's hot it could be very hot and when it's cool it could be very cool. And I believe this summer will have its share of cool wet weather as well with precipitation overall near  normal.

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

3-13 more would be the lowest since 2013. We look to add 1 next week. Typically we start adding them more so in July and August lately and no long range forecast is any good anymore. Although like clockwork I’m sure we will use up any cool anomalies right after Thanksgiving in time for the seemingly annual Torchmas luau.  

We  could add one next week but I think the odds are against it with light winds and probably onshore afternoon breezes. It looks to me more like mid to perhaps upper 80s for the city and coastal areas before the onshore breezes kick in.

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I'm now looking for temperatures this July and August in the NYC Metro Region to average near to slightly below normal. We've had 2 90 degree days at the Park so far, I'm looking for 3-13 more.

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13 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Nino summers can be cooler around here.   

But today's guidance was considerably warmer for later next week--mid-upper 80s outside chance of a 90 day. We'll see. I'm still not gung-ho for heat yet.

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11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

62 and sunny with smokey  skies.  Dry and near normal this work week.  Mid 70s today , coller Tue (5/23) near 70.  Near 80 Wed (5/24) before cooler on Thu (5/25) and Fri (5/26).

Low ride Memorial day Weekend.  ULL cuts off over the Northeast (north of previous guidance) by Fri / Sat (5/27). Ridge pushes above and below causing onshore flow.  A second cut off into the Southeast (which was previously forecast on guidance earlier last week's long range). That slowly moves out just south of the areas by early next week on the euro and slower on he gfs by next monday through the region.  Overall - onshore flow and we'll see how much of the clouds and rains make it in during the weekend.

Beyond there - look for a push of warmth by early / middle of next week.

 

I'm starting to consider the real possibility that the NYC Metro Region could experience a summer of near to even somewhat below normal temperatures. There's no Bermuda HP to speak of and really no signs of one. And the developing El Nino is likely to keep the south energized with upper lows and moisture with hybrid low pressure systems over the western Atlantic sometimes affecting the eastern seaboard. Ridging over the central U. S. also a factor..

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4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Can bet on it.  We'll see if the heat follows this mess.

I'm skeptical about much if any heat prior to the second or third week of June.

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14 hours ago, Tekken_Guy said:

I am not seeing any evidence of another cooldown next week.

The timing is uncertain but you're always promoting warmth. That's awfully nice of you. But the models are mixed as to whether there'll be much if any. It's predominantly slightly below normal temperatures to slightly above normal temperatures and there's no sustained or big-time warm-ups or heat on these maps. Whenever there is the highly energized storm track to cut it off.  Below is an example: 

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I am NOT seeing any prolonged or sustained warmth in this pattern. We break out of the current cold pool in the upper atmosphere and enjoy moderation to near or perhaps slightly above normal temperatures for a day or two next week (thinking mainly upper 70s perhaps one day lower 80s) but I think we're going to re-load the extremely wet pattern of the last 6 days by around the 11th. For sustained warmth or even heat I think we'll have to wait until the last ten days of the month or in June.

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Some hail here.

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42 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

With the rain gradually ending, my two day total is sitting right around the 4.50" mark.  Definitely didn't expect that, and I'm really impressed with some of the 6"+ totals that have been reported.

Looks like a grey and cool week ahead, but I think starting Saturday we enter a much nicer and warmer period.

I think a few warmer days like 60s to around 70 or low 70s. It looks basically near to below normal temps to me until a brief shot (one or two days at most) of warmth or heat around May 12th-13th then back to cool and wet.

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Lots of flash flooding in eastern Queens in the usual spots on Northern Blvd.

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I have been wearing my coat 

I've been wearing my down jacket all week.

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57 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

This isn’t going to get us warmth, that’s for sure. 

 

I totally agree. Now the gfs in it's fantasy time-frames is going to occasionally do what it did last night and heat us up at 300+ hours. But I'm not even close to buying anything like that. In fact with El Nino getting ready to take shape all bets are off on what type of summer is ahead. This pattern would be closer to what we'd want to see in January.

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1 hour ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Does that mean May is likely to be below normal, or possibly cooler than April?

I think at least the first two thirds of May will likely be a little cooler than normal but cooler than April? Maybe. But I really do think alot will depend on whether or not and how much temperatures rebound in the last ten days of the month. It's possible they could just rebound to near normal and not above normal. It's also possible that a wet pattern could reload after a drier period in the middle of the month. We'll just have to wait and see. But as of now, the operational Euro continues to have us in a northwesterly flow aloft on May 7th.  That does not bode well for warm or even near normal temperatures.

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10 hours ago, Tekken_Guy said:

I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll be warm again in Week 2 of May. If we’re lucky the pattern will break by next Thursday.

I don't see any sign of it. Could the cooler than normal break for one or two days? Sure. But I think it would be for a one day shot of near normal".  I see no sign whatsoever of a ridge in the east which is necessary for prolonged above average temperatures. For that I think at the earliest late in the third week of May--17th-24th....at the earliest. At the latest second week of June.

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I anticipate at this point that any return to above normal temperatures for the NYC Metro region would probably occur late during the 3rd week or 4th week of May. We might get into near normal temperatures a few days to a week before then.

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Rolling thunder here with rain as the line moves in.

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An onshore flow will keep temperatures cooler than previously expected today, tomorrow, and Saturday with 70s to near 80 only  over some spots well inland well north west and northeast of NYC as our temperatures stay mainly in the 50s and 60s.

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I suspect April finishes out on the cool/wet side and the first ten days of May are near to below normal with regards to temperatures. Precipitation for the first ten days of May very uncertain at this point. 

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Initially most of the shower and t-storm activity will be focused over Pa and western NJ but I think it will drift eastward this evening and if it doesn't wash out before it gets here most of the NYC Metro Region will get some rainfall very late this afternoon or more likely early tonight. I think tomorrow is mainly dry aside from some low clouds and patchy fog.

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Well, the Park made it to 90 for the second consecutive day. There could be an outside shot at 90 around the 23rd but I really think the next one is during May. 

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