Wxoutlooksblog

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Next batch coming through

 

I think most of these storms will probably continue to dry up prior to getting to me. Still there's a chance one sneaks through I think the later is the more likely. Tomorrow some peaks of sun and mid-upper 80s with higher humidity with the approaching cold front should lead to somewhat more widespread t-storm activity later tomorrow afternoon & tomorrow night. There's still just a chance that the bulk of the activity stays west and southwest of NYC only crossing  through the area as it weakens tomorrow night. But it could hold together and give us a soaking too. We'll see.

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Great WAR late in the forecast period on Euro & EPS. Looks like lots of 90+ days on the way. We haven't seen this in quite a while.

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My 5th floor apartment in Douglaston facing west with open sky got so hot with the westward facing wall of the building and now an easterly wind I am running my a/c full blast to try to fully get the heat out. I ran it all night last night and probably will need to run it over night another night to finally get it comfortably cool. Then it warms up with plenty of humidity on Saturday. Unless we sneak a 90 in on Saturday, Sunday, Monday or Tuesday (and it's unlikely since winds will be out of the s-sw) I do not think we see another 90+ day in NYC until the second or more likely the third week of July.

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Back to low 70s Thu and Fri and possible backdoor drizzly gunk. This week is a ride! 

Possibly hot again by Sunday through Tuesday. 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it really is a historic day!!

Go out and celebrate. I was supposed to go to a cocktail party in Manhattan but decided to stay put.

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30 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I think they peaked at 87

88

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2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I consider 98 as a bust when the Euro is saying 106 still. 

For the Euro we once knew, it is. I don't think it's quite as good today.

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

still a chance at 100 on Tuesday for the city and western long island, looks like we are capped today in the mid to upper 80s because the sun is fighting through a high overcast.

we were hotter yesterday but it was much less humid.

 

I am doubtful that we hit 100. The pattern is too active with too many pop-up storms. Once the dew points get to a certain point lift in the atmosphere will easily pop storms. I am looking for 93 at Central Park tomorrow and 98 on Tuesday, 92 on Wednesday. 

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1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

If there was meteorological gambling, I would put $100 on EWR to hit 90 today...

EWR always hits 90 on marginally hot days. They should make it. But Central Park with 81 at 3PM and a high thin overcast is I think unlikely. Yes there could be a spike over the next 2-3 hours but I think mid-upper 80s would probably do it for today. Look for an extremely warm and humid overnight, however and temperatures probably to rise to 90-95 degrees by lunchtime tomorrow. I am comfortable going for a high temperature of 86 today and 93 tomorrow, 98 Tuesday. But we shall see how possible storms affect this. They should be well to our north mostly.

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There's no storm east of here right now. All the action is well to our south. Storms that were developing to our nw are falling apart as the high pressure ridge builds in. But time is short for Central Park to get from their 1PM temperature of 78 to their expected high of 92. I don't think they're going to make it.

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Yes the 12Z GFS and CMC are back to more reasonable temperatures as the week progresses. From Wednesday on upper 80s to lower 90s appears to be the rule with much cooler temperatures and showers/storms Wednesday night through Friday but let's remember how erratic the models are whereas the Euro has been consistently hot for most of the week and into next weekend.

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7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Also missed the point that the warming has become sustained and prolonged even if max temps don't pass previous highs. 

That's a far bigger CC indicator than how hot it gets. However even with that, we may just challenge that too. 

Because once we surpass previous baselines, it becomes much easier to hit new all time records. 

No the bigger indication is how few 0-10 degree days we see. 

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Either way, whatever the high temperature is, it's going to be seen as a referendum on the effects of climate change on our area in terms of summertime high temperatures. Let's see how much climate change has really affected our high temperatures in the summer.  JFK hit 99 on May 29, 1969 and 98 on June 19, 1994.  Let's see if CC has made enough of a difference to beat those records, sea breeze or not.

 

As a strong believer in climate change and global warming I think this is ridiculous and outrageous. There have been heatwaves going way back. By allowing yourself to rate climate change according to the weather on a day or two you are promoting the ability of deniers to come back when it snows or is cold for a day or two and say, "see there's no climate change". It's absurd and it is NOT what climate change is. It is far bigger and based on statistics globally over 100s of years. It is not a hot day or a snowstorm.

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1 hour ago, Sundog said:

0z Euro for Monday afternoon. You don't see winds literally facing eachother NW from one direction and SE from the other often:

You also don't see 582dm thicknesses over NYC often.

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Again 2 nights in a row. GFS significant backdoor cold front comes through on Wednesday. CMC, backdoor cold front remains to our north for the entire week. It's the difference between a 3-4 day heatwave starting Sunday and a 5-6 day heatwave starting Sunday. Whatever, upper 90s to lower 100s likely at least Monday & Tuesday. Notably, GFS has a second surge of 90+ degree heat later in the period for at least Saturday 6/28 & Sunday 6/29.

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3 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

I wonder if we will get an old fashioned heat wave, 5+ days of 90+ temps, coming up this weekend in to next week.

 

The difference between the GFS and most of the other models is that the GFS has much higher heights out west while the Euro, EPS, and CMC have more of a trough out west. The higher heights on the GFS out west (very possibly a mistake) allow the high pressure and backdoor front over eastern Canada to drop southward into our region. If the GFS corrects and introduces lower heights out west it will probably become more like the other models. Likewise if the other models start showing higher heights out west they will be more aggressive with the backdoor cold front.

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00Z GFS did NOT have the backdoor cold front Wednesday. It stayed well to our north then got here Friday night and quickly washed out with 576dm thicknesses building around it. The 00Z GFS when compared to the 12Z GFS is hotter and longer duration heat lasting from Sunday through perhaps Saturday or even maybe the following Sunday. And wouldn't you know, the heat is poised to rebuild into the region the very beginning of July according to its fantasy range maps. There'll be lots of thunderstorm activity IMO. The GGEM did have the Wednesday evening cold front with cooler weather Thursday & Friday (onshore winds).

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2 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

Too far out to know exacts but the latest GFS has more onshore flow than the Euro next week, so it has lower temps (mid to upper 90's) with higher humidity. Unfortunately it's been the theme of a lot of our heat waves in recent times

18Z GFS had a backdoor cold front on Wednesday. The winds back to northeast dropping temperatures back towards more reasonably quite warm to maringally hot levels by Thursday. The GFS is extremely erratic, however, and the ECMWF a little less-so. But also the EPS trended slightly less hot than prior runs. So, wait to see more before forecasting high temperatures in the 105-108 degree range. I think we will have a chance of our first heatwave of the season and maybe the most intense heat since 2010 but we really do not know for sure yet, there's lots of time prior to next week for things to change.

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27 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

these euro temps will not verify...

I tend to agree. We'll see. I think the message is that it will be hot with probably the hottest heatwave since 2010. Maybe we are locked into at least 5 consecutive days of mid 90s+. And I would look for the hottest days to top out probably between 102-104 if we do in fact exceed 100. Lots of time for the 100s to become unraveled here. It can all be messed up with backdoor fronts, onshore winds, or thunderstorms.

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34 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

60s would have been nice, right on the ocean it struggled at 59 for most of the day. The cloud deck was so thick there was almost no noticeable warming even in the afternoon. 

I can remember days in July & August when temperatures stayed in the low 60s and it rained all day. It's not common, but it happens once in a while. 

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I now do not think we'll see a 90 at Central Park before June 18th and probably not until after the 23rd if in June at all.

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An outside chance of briefly touching 90 on Thursday but I favor Central Park topping out at 88/89. Gonna be close.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

All the wet weather/flooding to our west and south might work against big ridging there again this summer which would mean more southerly flow/humid FL type weather vs westerly flow drier heat that can give many of us a chance at 100. 

The latter part of this summer might begin to turn drier but the drier pattern could also hold off until after summer. We'll see.

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5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Tue should get to or exceed 80 for most of NJ / NYC metro as it looks now.  We'll see next week with frontal boundary / clouds otherwise once to Tue could be 80s.

I'm still not seeing any heat this week with possibly one or two days in the June 11-14 time-frame. But overall it does not to me like an above normal temperature pattern for our area. I'm aware some of the longer range guidance has a ridge over the eastern Canada and the Maritime Provinces nosing back towards us but that is really not a heat signal for the big cities of the northeast and coastal sections. We do not want to see high pressure set up so close to us or in the coastal waters se of New England. It's very much an over the top type of signal and the flow remains active with lots of cold fronts and an active storm track. The warm days are mostly low-mid 80s, yes high overnight minimums sometimes but also a cool push of air every so often. Looks near to perhaps slightly below normal temps to me and wetter than normal for most of us.

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4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Peak heat could be later in Jul - and focus in August but suspect we follow an overall above normal temp wise and likely rain - wise.  

90 degree days range id expect 

EWR  / C-NJ , NE-NJ : >30 days
NYC:  20 days
LGA:  >25 days

Sounds about right. For now the heat is almost always going to be over the top.

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