Wxoutlooksblog

9 hours ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Do you think the pattern will turn colder/snowier as we get closer to Christmas?

There is a chance we will have to wait until later on. Clipper patterns tend to be on the drier side and with a big ridge over the western 2/3 of the country there's little moisture to be had unless you're right by the Gulf of Mexico or in Florida. Anyway in the longterm the pattern could change quickly at almost any time. So we'll see.

WX/PT

It looks per the Euro that we're going to get into a clipper type pattern for a significant period of time. This means a milder day or two here and there but also repeated incursions of colder air with the risk of some light snow when the the clipper storm systems move across and there is some cold air still in place. Some of these systems may stay south of the NYC Metro but others could drop over the area from the north and west. As long as it lasts, these systems generally do not bring heavy or even moderate precipitation to the are so precip amounts should be near to perhaps a bit below normal. But we'll experience some cold and who knows, maybe we'll get lucky with a dusting to 2" at some point.

WX/PT

This situation is not very far from producing a snowstorm somewhere in the NYC Metro Region. My feeling is that the GFS is holding onto the primary at least a bit too long with the blocking. All it takes is for this to re-develop a few hundred miles southeast of the primary and we're in business. 

WX/PT

The question for the upcoming winter has always been whether we'd get cold enough, not whether we'd get a good storm track happening. Now we're without the storm track as well.

WX/PT

2 hours ago, nycwinter said:

is that from you're landlord or did you turn heat on?

Tiny trickle of first heat from my landlord this morning. Not much. Just a tiny trickle.

WX/PT

We may be a little ahead of ourselves. Autumn with perfect storm tracks for snow does not usually precede the best winters. In Autumn storms are often hooking to the left more. And if during winter there is good blocking over the North Atlantic and ample cold air this is not a concern. Even in the best of winters, some storms are going to hook left and bring rain to the coast. If they all tracked perfectly we'd get more than 100" snow. Not going to happen.

WX/PT

Friday the day of the storm I left Hudson NY at 2:30PM for my apartment in Douglaston. The lower Taconic Parkway was closed so I just did what the GPS told me to do. It took me east on I-84 to 684 south. Going east on I-84 was the worst part of the trip obviously because I was driving back into some of the heavier bands of rain. I was glad to exit off of I-84 onto 684 South which was still pretty bad but as I got closer to the Hutchinson River Pkway things began to improve. But then of course the Hutchinson River Pkway was flooded and the GPS gave me a tour of Mamaroneck on the way to I-95 south. I-95 south was ok initially taking me towards the Throgs Neck but then traffic and perhaps more flooding prompted the GPS to give me a tour of the South Bronx and take me back over to the Whitestone Bridge. I finally returned to my place at about 5:55pm via the Clearview to 46th Ave 220 St and Northern Boulevard. 

WX/PT

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

And that's what the 3km NAM shows now. It backed down on the heavy rain for tomorrow but gives us heavy rain on Sunday. 

Tomorrow it may back down on the heavy rain for Sunday. I do think we'll get a burst of moderate to heavy rain this AM. There might be a break from late today into most of tonight. But it's possible to that it may not be a complete break but just diminish into light rain and drizzle. 

WX/PT

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

I’ll give this a try. would love to track storms tracking near cape cod. Would screw the interior but be great for the coast. Ala Juno
 

 

 

It all depends on where one is. And those who live in Ohio would love to see storms tracking to over interior NY State. I suspect the season is going to be hyperactive and storms are going to track all over the place. Very few people likely to be disappointed. I just hope we we some cold air to work with.

WX/PT

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

why is weather forecasting so bad a few days ago we were looking a week to 10 days without any rain now that has changed quickly.,

The pattern is transitioning into fall. And yes in a very short time-frame we've gone from tracking Lee to tracking the arrival of an autumn air mass into the Great Lakes. The models are struggling. A few days ago the models were depicting a warm to very warm finish to September and start to October. It does not appear that way now. It could change again but I wouldn't bet on it. The endless summer is going to end.

WX/PT

12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

18Z GFS is a double New England whammy Lee then Nigel a week later.

Hurricanes moving up along or off of the eastern seaboard is often followed by a cold snowy winter. 

WX/PT

35 minutes ago, dWave said:

The same persistant narrow line roughly from Newburgh to the Throgs Neck Br, extending toward JFK now. Where is it coming from? Is there a back door cold front stuck there?

Yes it's a sneaky little coastal front almost a bit of an extreme backdoor. And it's going to sit where it is until it washes out. It could keep Central Park from reaching 90 today as a result of clouds and showers and maybe tomorrow due to a light onshore breeze. Yes parts of LI will hit 90 today due to greater amount of sunshine. But Central Park probably not. Maybe 88 or 89.

WX/PT

37 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Wtf where is this coming from

Has forecasting declined so much that we can't  forecast 12 hours in advance and after days of saying sun and low 90s its currently  raining

 

Epic fail no excuses

This front was on the GFS two days ago and on a few runs of the NAM 3KM. I noted it in my last post. It's going to be difficult for Central Park to hit 90 today and tomorrow, today because of cloud cover and showers/storms and tomorrow because of a light onshore breeze. This is not a heatwave for NYC in my opinion.

WX/PT

Don't be shocked if NYC does not have a heatwave at all. The problem being an extremely backdoor front which would affect coastal areas as far west as NYC itself from NYC to Maine. The coastal b-door front would move from the northeast Monday night. So maybe we would hit 90 on Sunday or Monday but more likely high temperatures at Central Park are around 88 or 89. And Tuesday we could be dealing with onshore winds almost all day. Now I'm not sure if this scenario will come true but it can be seen on the regular NAM and NAM 3KM and it would be consistent with the history of our potential heat for the last 6 weeks.

WX/PT

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Too much cloudcover and the cold front is moving in quickly. Central Park will probably top out at about 86.

WX/PT

Still have a shot at 90. Sun broke through in last hour. We'll see.

WX/PT

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

City probably won't today

Too much cloudcover and the cold front is moving in quickly. Central Park will probably top out at about 86.

WX/PT

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you guys said those 90s didn't count because of lower humidity 

I think Monday is the best possibility for a 90. Very slight chance Sunday. Beyond then, again if you believe the GFS there could be a chance Thursday or Friday but the GFS performance has been extremely poor particularly beyond 4 days so I'm not ready to take it very seriously. 

WX/PT

Again the GFS with a very abbreviated glancing blow of heat for Monday followed by potentially severe storms Monday evening as a cold front crosses and unseasonably cool weather later Tuesday through Saturday....if you believe the GFS. CMC is basically the same idea. This not a forecast but just what these particular model runs suggest.

WX/PT

Of course you finally get your backdoor at 216 hours. But the only support right now this solution has the GFS from 5 days ago. That's not a strong yes vote. And the idea of the LP kicking the first HP behind the first b-door front out to sea seems not right for no other reason than it hasn't happened all summer.

WX/PT

But what happens when the heat is expanding and the HP dropping behind the b-door front is weak and only a nose from a HP in central Canada. The HP becomes a LP and our heat is extended possibly throughout next week. We'll be questioning this solution today for a while before buying it.

WX/PT

And at 168 hours your b-door front is almost here. But we are pretty solidly in this heat for a day and a half possibly 2 days.

WX/PT

3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

May have to eat my words as at 120 while not as warm here the heat dome is building into Canada on the Euro. It's going to have a hard time bypassing us completely if this run is correct.

WX/PT

And yes at 144 we are looking at an expanding heat dome of very hot air. I would be careful about the idea that this will in fact occur. I think right now the odds weigh more heavily in favor of a b-door front around the 22nd but this run at 144 hours makes it look like a longer heatwave.

WX/PT

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Euro through 96 hours is coming in cooler than last night's run and less aggressive with the hot air mass over the central U.S. We'll see how this run completes but I think we're moving towards a consensus that we'll be on the edge of the hot air mass for 24 hours Sun-Mon and then cooler.

WX/PT

May have to eat my words as at 120 while not as warm here the heat dome is building into Canada on the Euro. It's going to have a hard time bypassing us completely if this run is correct.

WX/PT

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

I'm starting to wonder if we're gonna see any extreme heat this summer. It's getting late. 

And what a weekend we have coming up. A beautiful airmass comes in friday afternoon into saturday. Dewpoints could drop to the low 50s. Saturday looking like a top 10 day of the year with sunshine, low 80s and very low humidity. Even when it warms up on sunday, it's nothing impressive and humidity will only come up a little. Looks like the best weekend of the summer. 

Euro through 96 hours is coming in cooler than last night's run and less aggressive with the hot air mass over the central U.S. We'll see how this run completes but I think we're moving towards a consensus that we'll be on the edge of the hot air mass for 24 hours Sun-Mon and then cooler.

WX/PT

20 minutes ago, justinj said:

Off topic but does anyone have an issue with Yellowjacket’s this year? I had a hornets nest and an underground Yellowjacket next a few weeks ago now the past few days yellow jackets are hovering all over my backyard. Maybe it’s the humidity this year and the not so cold winters we’ve been having

I have yellow jackets all the time in my apartment as do my nextdoor neighbors. We are attributing it to an abundance of construction going on next door to us on our block where an 8 story building is going up. Yellow jackets can deliver a mean sting which is worse if you're allergic. I have not been stung yet. They do not live long once they're indoors. 

WX/PT