Wxoutlooksblog

7 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I haven't seen the Euro AIFS be remotely correct yet. It's all fantasy.

I don't entirely agree. How about this situation on the CMC at 120 hours which just introduced snow on its maps for nearby to our north and west. It's not fantasy that there are some colder air masses than normal dropping in from Canada which can complicate precip type issues with an ideal storm track and therefore model  runs will occasionally hit on the perfect set up. Our skill set must differentiate between genuine threats and outright mistakes in modeling.

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1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

It almost thundered...

It has come close. Hopefully next time.

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54 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I'd venture quite a few of those years had either N or BN precipitation and the lack of snow may have been more a function of that.

It's more evident that the recent snow drought is a function of well AN temperatures.

I don't have the data to back this so it's just speculation but it's clear that the scorched earth is a huge implication in recent history.

I think they are both valid points. There were more seasons with close to normal or below normal precipitation back then and the ocean temperatures were generally cooler. With climate change we are getting generally stronger storms with more moisture. 1979-1993 it was rare you'd see a model ever crank out 2.00" precip during an event. Now it's a regular thing.

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15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

huh ? today is the only day over 60 for at least the next week

ZFP from KOKX (cod.edu)

Yes let's not get ahead of ourselves. We have some warm to very warm weather ahead of us but also a lot of damp at least partially rainy days with temperatures in the 40s. We'll take the warmth when it comes.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Until we see wholesale Pac improvements it's going to be rough sledding.    Same goes for next winter....

Based on today's pattern you forecasting next winter? This pattern can flip on a dime. Don't bet on it. 

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9 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Pete do you mind saying more about what the Euro shows after?

Well there is February 23rd where the models have solutions ranging from suppression to tracking just to our northwest along an approaching  cold front. The are a few milder days and a storm tracking into the Great Lakes but I think it's foolish now that we've seen a colder pattern and some snowfall to dismiss the idea that the colder pattern would reload sometime in March. So I do think most likely there will be at least two more snow threats this season after tomorrow night.

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is nice but it being alone gives me lots of caution flags 

Why? Euro and CMC are consistently a nice little hit with this. 2-4" even possible and no precip type issues. Euro suggests that this is not the last.

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Light rain and sleet in Douglaston.

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14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

We've had fast movers with cold air rushing in perform well before. I agree though this is probably around 5-6 inches most areas but I think some places in the metro might get 6-10. 

Some places in the metro like the north shore of eastern LI or north shore of eastern Nassau, maybe.

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For my neck of the woods, western LI and Queens it's I think going to snow heavily from 7AM-Noon then end pretty quickly. I cannot really see anyone around me getting much more than 5" with an isolated 6" here and there. It will look great coming down, silver dollar flakes, but it will have trouble at first sticking at all to the pavement. Still, the pavement will get a few inches. Now if there were more blocking and the storm slowed down, it could be twice as much. But I don't see that happening.

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53 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

we will know before the pattern is in place if there will also be a stormy pattern developing.

The ensembles seem to me to be pointing to an extremely dry pattern over the most of the mid Atlantic and northeastern states the next 2-3 weeks. As of right now, it is difficult for me to imagine how any southern stream system gets far enough north to affect areas north of N.C., Va.  Of course that could change. But the will the colder air masses be cold enough and locked in if it were to change? I'm getting a little bit doubtful.

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

It’s actually very boring, looks dry with nothing of interest for the next two weeks at least

I think you're refusing to see an evolving pattern that could end up very exciting and is interesting along the way with some threats on the maps. Why you see the glass half empty rather than half full? I don't know but not my problem.

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2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Do you see this 2/5 storm as legit snow threat for DC metro area?

I'd like to see a few more models showing it. But my gut feeling is that it will be, yes.

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55 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

It's back. And right now with CMC indicating snow over the mid Atlantic States the likely track would keep this too far to our south and east and we'd stay high and dry. But the HP position is perfect on this run. It would only take some subtle changes to cause this system to track a little further north or turn up the east coast (less likely but still not impossible). So we watch and wait but it's still NOT boring.

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8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

not according to DR. NO

You are reciting the Euro verbatim. It's 9 days away. Nobody knows where the surface low and upper low are going to actually end up. The model will go through many not so subtle changes from day to day for the next 5-7 days. But you're settling for model output exactly as it is 9 days out. 

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Nice El Niño rainstorm but that is pure fantasy, pattern does not support

Two runs in a row pointing to a major storm of some kind somewhere on the east coast on February 5th. Yes, temperatures are marginal but this kind of storm can make its own cold air and its centered around February 5th, a rather historic time-frame. Not only that comparing last night's run to this one, changes are not subtle from run to run, last night's run being colder. I think it's worth watching this.

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Boom! It's not boring.

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1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

This might or might not get this far north but not boring. 

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This might or might get this far north but not boring. 

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Major northeastern coast winter storm potential brews on European model Sunday night into Monday as cold air presses south from eastern Canada. 

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I do NOT think our winter weather or wintry precip is over here in the NYC Metro Region. The models are showing an active storm track developing across the south and fresh cold high pressure systems keep getting pulled southeastward from eastern and central Canada. We will just need some timing cooperation. For January 28th it looks just a hair too warm to me at the start but it could end as snow, even maybe accumulating snow in some locations. As we work our way into February things might get better with the timing. Though temperatures could quite possibly continue to average near or slightly above normal.

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'll predict now CPK gets more snow Friday than they did today...that was something I would not have been bold enough to say 18 hours ago.

At 72 hours CMC looks great for significant snow on Friday. GFS is just a whiff, not much at all. I think something closer to the CMC is the way to go here. It would have far greater potential if it slowed down which doesn't look likely. 

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My feeling is that this storm will not over perform. There are two greatly inhibiting factors. The models projecting the most precip for the area develop the low pressure center very close to the area and vertical velocities are much lower than what we usually see for the NYC Metro Region to get over 2" of snow. CMC has us changing to rain at the end. But to me the first red flag, low vertical velocity numbers tell me the snow could be quite light.

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Pretty good look here. I guess the models were waiting for you all to go to sleep. Of course GGEM is extremely amped up changing the snow to rain in coastal areas.

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. Very light snow Douglaston and Great Neck.

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