Wxoutlooksblog

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

It’s actually very boring, looks dry with nothing of interest for the next two weeks at least

I think you're refusing to see an evolving pattern that could end up very exciting and is interesting along the way with some threats on the maps. Why you see the glass half empty rather than half full? I don't know but not my problem.

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2 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Do you see this 2/5 storm as legit snow threat for DC metro area?

I'd like to see a few more models showing it. But my gut feeling is that it will be, yes.

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55 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

It's back. And right now with CMC indicating snow over the mid Atlantic States the likely track would keep this too far to our south and east and we'd stay high and dry. But the HP position is perfect on this run. It would only take some subtle changes to cause this system to track a little further north or turn up the east coast (less likely but still not impossible). So we watch and wait but it's still NOT boring.

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8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

not according to DR. NO

You are reciting the Euro verbatim. It's 9 days away. Nobody knows where the surface low and upper low are going to actually end up. The model will go through many not so subtle changes from day to day for the next 5-7 days. But you're settling for model output exactly as it is 9 days out. 

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Nice El Niño rainstorm but that is pure fantasy, pattern does not support

Two runs in a row pointing to a major storm of some kind somewhere on the east coast on February 5th. Yes, temperatures are marginal but this kind of storm can make its own cold air and its centered around February 5th, a rather historic time-frame. Not only that comparing last night's run to this one, changes are not subtle from run to run, last night's run being colder. I think it's worth watching this.

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Boom! It's not boring.

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1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

This might or might not get this far north but not boring. 

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This might or might get this far north but not boring. 

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Major northeastern coast winter storm potential brews on European model Sunday night into Monday as cold air presses south from eastern Canada. 

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I do NOT think our winter weather or wintry precip is over here in the NYC Metro Region. The models are showing an active storm track developing across the south and fresh cold high pressure systems keep getting pulled southeastward from eastern and central Canada. We will just need some timing cooperation. For January 28th it looks just a hair too warm to me at the start but it could end as snow, even maybe accumulating snow in some locations. As we work our way into February things might get better with the timing. Though temperatures could quite possibly continue to average near or slightly above normal.

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'll predict now CPK gets more snow Friday than they did today...that was something I would not have been bold enough to say 18 hours ago.

At 72 hours CMC looks great for significant snow on Friday. GFS is just a whiff, not much at all. I think something closer to the CMC is the way to go here. It would have far greater potential if it slowed down which doesn't look likely. 

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My feeling is that this storm will not over perform. There are two greatly inhibiting factors. The models projecting the most precip for the area develop the low pressure center very close to the area and vertical velocities are much lower than what we usually see for the NYC Metro Region to get over 2" of snow. CMC has us changing to rain at the end. But to me the first red flag, low vertical velocity numbers tell me the snow could be quite light.

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Pretty good look here. I guess the models were waiting for you all to go to sleep. Of course GGEM is extremely amped up changing the snow to rain in coastal areas.

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. Very light snow Douglaston and Great Neck.

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Flurries in Douglaston.

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Much better and snowier look tonight on all models.

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

still tucked into the coast a few hours later ?

Once you lose the colder air you're not getting it back unless there's a new source. The storm could make its own cold air if the peak vertical velocities stay overhead long enough. But often times they don't. We'll have to see. the maps even with my cataracts still show rain. The heavy rain is visible just east of the r/s line in Queens. I'm not sure if the wrap around snow gets in here. The storm is moving quickly rain almost into Boston.

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14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

explain why please ?

 

Look at the maps. The LP is way too tucked into the NJ coast.

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3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

then why does CMC show this ?

It looks wrong. 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No 

Boston will even probably go over to rain.

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GFS and CMC are each all rain for coastal areas and the big cities of the northeast. Just not enough or cold enough air.

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Another thing as of now worth noting. There is not much of a reinforcing colder air mass  coming in on the backside of the storm as it pulls away. This is important because as the lifting and vertical velocity dynamics pass their peak whatever snow there is falling will probably mix or change back over. Instead of an incoming HP we have the upper low which could bring a short period of rain or a mix early Sunday night. The incoming cold air is behind that upper low. But that cold air will most likely be wasted as the next storm system heads for the Lakes.

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2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I would be extremely surprised if the NAM correctly called this event Wednesday evening. I'd be shocked really.

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I'd be surprised if the NAM got it right Friday evening. Saturday morning it might be within range for the NAM, maybe.

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7 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

lets wait for the NAM run on Wed evening. The potential for accumulating snow is there  for sure but WSW criteria will be hard to achieve even in Allentown. We first want to get a better picture for the exact transfer location (sweetspot) nd HP energy in Quebec. The we can talk how much.  48 hours from now will tell us everything on the NAM

 

I would be extremely surprised if the NAM correctly called this event Wednesday evening. I'd be shocked really.

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With regards to the micro analysis of the HP to the north. The earlier maps (yesterday and the day before) showed it better locked in place. However please note. This is still marginally cold enough air and its penetration south at all levels is highly questionable. It's going to have to be nearly perfect for this to come together as a primarily snow event for coastal sections and I think we might be on the verge of losing that possibility. On the CMC it's gone. On the GFS it's almost gone.

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