Wxoutlooksblog

4 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

by default i should hate winter as a skateboarder, but a lot of people somehow neglect the beauty that this season brings. makes me kinda sad to hear how much people dislike it, there's literally nothing like the peace and serenity that a snowstorm brings. people are too caught up in their little world of social media and screen time to just sit outside and listen to the amazing silence during a snowstorm. not to get too deep into it but my mother unexpectedly passed in december at way too young of an age. from my early childhood she always instilled the beauty of what nature brings, especially with snow. thats why im so hellbent on us actually getting a storm this winter. funny enough it drove me to this forum which has become one of my fav things to read throughout the day. 

anyway. yes, nation full of couch potato morons. agree

My condolences on your mom's unexpected passing. 

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18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Not this first colder airmass that one will be going down to Texas first.  The real arctic airmass is the one that comes at the end of the week correct?  The first one is just average cold.

 

I don't even consider the first one cold. The discussion previous was primarily about later in the week/weekend. I guess if I'm not pinpoint specific you're going to assume I'm making an incorrect comment. 2-3 posts above mine nobody but you are even mentioning the airmass for Tues-Thurs and by my words it is clear what I'm talking about.

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22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if the big time cold shot the models show for early Feb will verify. GFS gives us subzero readings actually

You may think it's crazy but it happened in Feb 2016 after a ridiculously warm December. 

There's a reasonable chance it ends up colder than forecast just because of the cold air's origins and it's track into the lower 48. It's not dumping south then coming east it's coming down across the upper Great Lakes and Ontario and the winds will blow right down the Hudson Valley which often brings us our coldest temperatures here in NYC.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Unfortunately the new NAM totally agrees with it. All rain for the city, overrunning goes way north and nails SNE/upstate NY.

Nam has been awful. I think the verdict is still out but it continues to be very difficult to get accumulating snow at Central Park. And anything frozen that falls would be over quickly not lasting more than 45 minutes if that. Models could look still different by tomorrow.

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is cutter after cutter….

At 216 hours not necessarily. As shown now, yes. But let's see what future runs show.

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I'm beginning to re-consider my earlier assessment of Central Park not getting their first measurable snow on Wednesday. The models do look a bit colder this evening and I think they have a good shot at it.

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If that’s the case it’s onto February, record broken lol

I think there may be a clipper around the 28th and one more storm to end the month probably at least mostly rain.

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I don't think NYC's Central Park, will see measurable on Wednesday. I suspect it will be 45 minutes to an hour of sleet with a few big wet flakes mixed in then all rain. Same for locations on Long Island. The HP to the north is moving out quickly. 

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38 minutes ago, eduggs said:

0z NAM still sending a surface reflection to WPA. Too much easterly wind component as a result and it takes too long for the primary to completely fill and winds to shift to the NE. No meaningful change. Maybe a few hours of snow or mix City N & W, but primarily rain outside the mountains.

The event is also shaping up to be a little dryer and quicker than indicated a day or two ago.

I would not take the NAM verbatim but I think it is a little colder/drier and has the NYC Metro region closer to a mix/rain line both at the beginning of the precip and late Sunday night. We'll have to wait and see if this is anything other than just a cold rain but I'm still skeptical about any significant or measurable snow out of this.

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39 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We'd need a radically different upper level setup to lock in high surface pressure. Trof axis is also way too far west. Really not so different than several other rain storms we've had this winter.

Generally I'd agree but sometimes you get a few last minute changes in the upper levels. Let me be clear, I do not think this is going to happen.

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Another thought if the high pressure to the north were to get locked in and a coastal did not develop or developed late we could end up with an ice storm.

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If there was a chance with any of this series of storm systems (yesterday, 22-23, 25-26) I would have said 25-26 would be our best chance because of the high pressure to the north. But look how quickly it disappears. Now if it holds in place much longer, different story.  But we would also have to get a coastal to develop quickly to lock the cold air in at lower levels and it would have to develop in exactly the right spot offshore.  It's a tall order at this point IMO.

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I have difficulty seeing any measurable snowfall in Central Park Wednesday at this point. Winds will likely be blowing out of the e-se with surface temperatures around 37/38 to start the event. We may see a mix of rain sleet and snow for 30-45 minutes, I doubt it amounts to anything.

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I think our best chance is still the 25th-26th. There's more cold air around and a slight shift in track to the south and east would put the low pressure out over the ocean close enough to yield some significant snow to much of the NYC Metro Region. Still the odds are against it happening as the models all at this point depict a rainstorm here with the track of the low over us or to our north and west. But as I said yesterday I think this is the one to watch.

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2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm not trying to be pessimistic. But if you look at the 500mb chart, the ULL is over Chicago on Sun. night. That is unfavorable for us except with the deepest arctic airmass in place, in which case we'd get IP and ZR.  The secondary SLP tracking near or south of us doesn't save us because the lower and mid-levels have already been torched due to the position of the ULL and primary SLP.

On the UKMET there's a south-southeasterly wind which really looks like a warm wind out ahead of deep southern storm center and around the high pressure out in the Atlantic. I would think most of us will have temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s at the very least, possibly warmer than that.

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59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No but I researched it-- that was an el nino.  Our big winter was the winter after that in 1966-67, classic very hot and dry summer followed by a snowy winter!

 

Nobody, I hope, is looking for a big winter this year. But a La Nina and an El Nino can yield a similar synoptic pattern. My words not referencing sea surface temperature anomalies but the actual jet stream and real weather outcomes.

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Pattern on the maps for late January and beyond now starting to take on a very 1966-ish feel. Anyone else here personally remember winter 1966? 65-66?

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The 26th is now the day to watch IMO. CMC shows rain changing over to snow as the low exits while the ECMWF shows a bomb in the benchmark. My concern is the lack of a good 50/50 low but HP around the storm (antecedent and incoming) is cold enough. The question being will the next runs trend towards a coastal hugger or track the low over interior southeast NY State. 

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed. It seems like the only one who thinks we are getting an I-95 snowstorm next week is Joe Bastardi. There is no semblance of a legit -NAO block and a marginal airmass. Color me skeptical of next week too

We'll see how the EPS trends and then tonight's guidance but there are so many particulars which have to fall into place for Sun-Tues to work out for us here and right now it just seems as though the odds are they won't all do so. We need a cold enough air mass to start, we need to see it lock in with a 50/50, we need the low track close enough but not too close, it just doesn't seem likely we're going to get all of that.

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Maybe some snow according to this for interior se NY, nw Ct, and interior eastern Ma but most likely all rain for NYC.

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27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Euro has been showing phantom 50/50 lows that disappear. Last week as an example, when it had the 50/50 low mirage for Thursday and a snowstorm for a few runs and it turned into 50 degrees and rain. Until a legit 50/50 low shows up or a -NAO, I doubt any major coastal snowstorm

50/50 lows are transient (phantom) without some higher latitude blocking which we do not and probably will not have in the near future. The time-frame that always had the best possibility of being the exception was Jan 22nd give or take a day or two, currently modeled for Jan 23rd and on the current maps there is a lack of cold air. 

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43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

All winter, as is typical in a la Nina, the northern stream low has taken over and has been dominant which is what really hurt December.

Just using as an example see below, IF IF we can somehow get the southern low to dominate if just once....if the pattern is not broken in the below image the low over Michigan will strengthen. I HOPE this changes.

This map is in the fantasy range but one major problem has been and will probably continue to be that there's no high latitude blocking which means there'a also no 50/50 or confluence to lock in a cold air mass. 

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28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and a lot windier and stronger too-- more reason for this to come west

 

Maybe. But how windy the system actually is will not have much effect on its eventual track. What's going on on the West Coast and over the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec, and Atlantic will.

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And to finish our possibly favorable period we might (if the Euro is correct) have two more shots at some wintry precipitation. 

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So it's right on the NJ shoreline as compared with last night's. 

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