Wxoutlooksblog

22 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The heat dome will finally move into the northeast for October-December

 

It probably is not a question of "if" but a question of "when". Now the cracked up GFS which at this point has ZERO support (someday it will be right, maybe) is saying goodbye to the blocking around July 10th as it builds the ridge out west eastward over and around what was originally a cool Canadian HP on July 8th. If you cancel the blocking this is actually a logical outcome and transition. The question being is it real? The answer at this point in time is "probably not". We'll keep an eye on the ensembles for any developing support of this idea but frankly I doubt we'll see it this early. Later on? There's a better chance IMO.

WX/PT

14 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

 

The big quesstion now has to be will the dome of heat which has dominated the center of the CONUS stay there most of the remainder of the summer or will it finally shift to cover the northeastern states including NYC during the second half of July and August? It has remained nearly frozen in the same place for the better part of the last 6 weeks with a little piece of it breaking off into our region for a day or two every ten or so days. If it is to shift to cover the northeast states later in the summer exactly what will be the mechanism to cause that shift and how will it occur? Will the ridge retrograde further and further allowing WAR to work its way in from the south and east or will blocking over the North Atlantic subside allowing the ridge to expand and build in from the west? Or will we remain in this relatively average temperature pattern (below average over parts of New England) with heat every ten days or so throughout summer? 

WX/PT

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The beat goes on….this will be a summer without heat 

Don't be so sure. For now yes there's no heat in sight. But remember, 1955 started out very very slowly in terms of heat and featured a blocking pattern like we've had this June. And they ended up with 14 90+ days in July and 10 90+ days in August. Frankly, if the pattern does flip, you can reverse that for this summer (if the pattern flips) and make it 10 in July and 14 in August, then add a few in September. It *could* happen, not saying that it will.

WX/PT

Again, heat doesn't have a chance to build as cold front approaches.

WX/PT

A kind of shriveled up shrunken ridge and low pressure off the Carolinas does not bode well for heat. Just days ago the heat ridge on the models stretched from coast to coast and up at least to the US/Canadian border. Now it's a mini ridge over the nations' mid section.

WX/PT

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I guess it depends on what you define as heat as things will definitely get muggy and warm. 

However heat waves and 90+ temps look uncommon for now. 

Heat is generally considered to be 90+ temps. There are lots of problems with getting that right now particularly in NYC. The heat ridge is out west and there's an absence of WAR. There will also be a stationary front or trough setting up somewhere near the eastern seaboard acting as a conduit for waves of low pressure  and/or possibly some tropical cyclone development down the road. All in all it's a pretty bleak picture for heat at this point in time. Yes there could be some briefly warm/muggy conditions over the next week or so but it won't last.

WX/PT

Cool/wet pattern continues with no signs of heat in the northeast on any of the overnight operational model runs.

WX/PT

GFS has July 4h weekend hazy hot and humid but from what we've seen the last two weeks that means about as much as the tooth fairy.

WX/PT

I could see this kind of weather (maybe not quite this extreme) happening in several episodes over the next 2-3 weeks. There are some indications we might heat up a little at some point over the July 4th holiday weekend time-frame but most of the time the ridge is out west and we have cool high pressure systems moving e-se from central Canada and a stalled out frontal boundary setting up just offshore with waves of low pressure developing along it. We may squeeze in a day or two of warmer more summer-like conditions here and there but at the moment I'm not seeing any heatwaves prior to the second or third week of July. If this pattern were not to change, we could go the whole summer without a heatwave. I do not think that will happen but you never know.

WX/PT

This picture has no heat. Maybe raw easterly winds, lots of clouds and dare I say rain. But it's the GFS which has been a joke so maybe these maps are a joke too. Plenty of heat out west.

WX/PT

Most of the very latest guidance is downplaying heat for next week. The tri-state region is on the very outskirts of the ridge with frequent rounds of storms. Given ensemble trends and extrapolating forward the ridge seems more and more at least for the first half of this summer to be anchoring itself out west. Generally, this set up would usually favor a cooler 2014 type summer. But given the Euro seasonal forecast, maybe we here in the northeast are looking at primarily a second half summer from the second or third week of July on. 

WX/PT

Tonight with the exception of the CMC, the models so far are heating up. It's kind of a tug of war between the Euro and the GFS which has by running ridiculously hot two runs in a row defied the Euro. The Euro idea of either a big cut-off dropping south from eastern Canada and chilling us until almost the end of June vs. the GFS idea of recurring heat. Up until tonight the ECMWF camp was gaining momentum and traction but the cooler camp seems to have hit a little hiccup in that the GFS which caved to the coolness last night has reverted back to heat for two consecutive runs. Also the GEFS is heating up a bit. If tonight's Euro shows any signs of caving to the GFS, it will be kind of a coup. I wouldn't bet on it, however.

WX/PT

Major changes continue on the all the models particularly the GFS which had us in chilly weather June 18th-19th and now we're mid-upper 80s if not 90. Map features adjusting by anywhere from 300 miles to 1500 miles a good argument to pay no attention.

WX/PT

The first heatwave this summer IMO could wait until mid July and we could still end up with over 20 90+ days. In the current pattern we'd only likely get a day or two of heat at the most during June and much of the latest guidance isn't even particularly favorable about that. But I do think we'll probably squeeze out a day or two of 90 in June. But a heatwave before the second week of July at this point just doesn't seem very likely. Of course things can change and the maps (ensembles and operationals) have been changing erratically and will probably continue to do so.

WX/PT

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

12z gfs now has upper 40s the morning of the 18th lol

The models are definitely in a state of flux and I suspect large scale changes will continue to occur over the next several days. The difference in heights on the west coast from model to model is significant and has an impact on what happens in the east. I suspect a piece of the big heat ridge will break off and move east then there'll be a cold front then another piece breaks off and moves east and so on until we get into a little more sustained heat during July.

WX/PT

I do not know if we're yet getting an accurate idea as exactly how this summer will turn out. Just a tiny shift in the position of the heat ridge and the blocking will make a world of difference particularly in terms of number of 90+ days in the cities of the northeast. And the thunderstorm activity can also make a huge difference since it has the potential to be extremely active with lots of severe weather in our area. If we get stuck under a ring of fire the lower levels can only warm so much before t-storm activity caps temperatures in the upper 80s. Depending on exactly where that active zone sets up can be the difference between 30 90+ degree days and 10.

WX/PT

Sometime between June 14th-18th it's looking as though it's going to get to be at least quite warm, maybe hot. But it appears there'll be a very active ROF at the leading of this hot air mass and any kind of wave of low pressure development or stronger upper air disturbance moving over and down around the big ridge can delay the eastward progression of the heat ridge.

WX/PT

This is fantasy range for the GFS but it may worth noting that this heat was gone on 3 out of the last 4 runs of the model. Let's wait a few more days before believing this kind of thing. If it's right, we will have 90+ days during the middle of June.

WX/PT

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are shifting the persistent June over the top warm  pattern of the last 5 years. The record heat in the Upper Plains to Great Lakes is getting replaced by a cooler trough. So lower chances of  any extended 90° heat for a while. 

 

 

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977.  

WX/PT

This weekend looks like a scorcher but it is interesting to note the differences in temperature on the 00Z 5/19 NAM FOUS as of 12Z Saturday with PHL being the hottest BTV the second hottest, then ALB, then LGA with BOS being the coolest.

WX/PT

Most of tonight's computer guidance appears to be coming a tad bit warmer than at 12Z. May 20th-22nd will depend on the exact position of the Bermuda high but barring any b-door front it looks very warm to perhaps hot. And most of the models earlier indicated more very warn to possibly hot weather towards the last week of the month.

WX/PT

Don't give up on the heat! A number of very hot summers in NYC have been slow to start. Some of them include 1961, 1966, 1983, 1995, 1999, and 2005. A few of these were also La Nina summers. There's some hint of much warmer weather during the May 21st-May 23rd time-frame.

WX/PT

1 hour ago, Tekken_Guy said:

If that 12z GFS is true then I'm in big danger of losing my bet.

It's a very bad pattern. I think we'll hit 70 late this week, maybe even 75 or 78 but after next weekend, we're going to be below normal temps and near normal precip for a while IMO. I don't think Central Park is going to get to 80 this month. Though we should see much more warmth possibly heat starting around mid or late May.

WX/PT

NYC might get close to 80 degrees on Thursday but I think probably tops out around 78 or 79. But the two factors that could hold temperatures lower are cloudcover and the winds being too southerly off of the still relatively cool ocean waters south of LI. Tomorrow NYC should get to 76 or 77. I like the model trends overnight some subtle hints of the jet stream relaxing in the fantasy range. It's good to see the storm track begin to shift further north even by just a little bit. 

WX/PT

I doubt it will look like this when we get closer in time, but this is what warmth looks like. Notice the confluence over the northeastern U.S. and se Canada is gone. Again, do not be surprised when the next run of the GFS looks completely different. 

WX/PT