Wxoutlooksblog

6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tue-Thurs-Fri will see 70s minimum with Thursday touching 80+

Average May temps are in the low 70s

In New Jersey near Philadelphia maybe. In NYC that kind of outcome is unlikely. There's a chance that the warmest day of the week in NYC would be Tuesday. On Thursday the front separating the warmer air from cooler maritime air mass will be close by.

WX/PT

3 hours ago, Tekken_Guy said:

What exactly needs to happen for a warm pattern to sustain itself?

First of all, you have to slow things down. The jet is super-charged with one piece of energy after another moving across the CONUS from the west coast to the east coast. There is no room or time for a high pressure center to sit and pump warm humid air northeastward. There is no Bermuda High. Everything is moving along from west to east. If this continued it would probably yield a cooler and wetter than average summer. But it's unlikely it will continue since this kind of pattern often does occur in April. As we get into May look for the westeriies to begin to retreat northward and the pattern to gradually relax. It might take until the end of May or the beginning of June. I hope not.

WX/PT

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

A warm week on tap. Very May like. I still think we'll see 80s

I am skeptical. There is too much energy in the upper atmosphere to allow it with little if any sustained heat source. There will be lots of showers and thunderstorms in the warmer air for any brief period of time we're in it. Lots of cold air aloft. The atmosphere will destabilize quickly with any daytime heating. We might eke out a 78 one day.

WX/PT

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Rain/snow line looks to be southern NYC and southern LI right now.  

It's according to the dynamics. When intensity drops off it becomes more rain/sleet than snow and vica versa..

WX/PT

This storm is/was (at least for coastal locations) all according to where the better dynamics and heaviest snowfall lasted the longest. Generally like almost every storm system this season, it has moved too fast and most of the intensity has slipped eastward too quickly for coastal sections. Most of the remainder is either non-accumulating wet snow and then eventually just plain drizzle and fog. The next chance is Saturday and after than perhaps March 23rd-24th. 

WX/PT

Nam 3Km going with a pasting followed by lighter snow possibly a mix. I'm with that idea, in the 2-5" range primarily on grassy surfaces but not exclusively on grassy surfaces.

WX/PT

The wind will be over for now before you know it and it will be time to start focusing in on the potential winter storm at the end of this work week. Almost all of the models have trended towards a more southern track with a secondary coastal low becoming the primary and locking in the cold air. First the mild temperatures Monday Tuesday and Wednesday.

WX/PT

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Why do you say that? It is not unusual for us to get some mild weather in February  and very common for us to get warmth prior to late season snowstorms.

WX/PT

I also do not understand why everyone's focus has turned to mid March which is more than a month away. We are following ensemble and operational model products which are not fool-proof and sometimes in error. The one constant about the weather is that it's always changing. 

WX/PT

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm going to cancel my stormvista subscription tonight since there is nothing to look forward to ahead. 

Why do you say that? It is not unusual for us to get some mild weather in February  and very common for us to get warmth prior to late season snowstorms.

WX/PT

If it's going to be this fast and weak it's a much smaller scale storm. But I think the Euro is probably too fast at this point. We'll see.

WX/PT

 UKIE is erratic and probably developing this storm too far north and east, actually the same wrong solution it kept coming up with last time. We'll see if it doesn't change back closer to what it looked like last night in a day or two.

WX/PT

Western Ridge flattens out on the Euro so it's progressive and instead it has two storms neither of which will nail us. But these maps are going to change. This is not the final solution. Flattening of the ridge out west too quickly probably an error.

WX/PT

If the western ridge stays back and allows this storm to develop and come up the coast you'd almost automatically have a higher ceiling than with the last one because there is no kicker. There is no clipper or notable northern stream system moving in right behind this. It can take its sweet time. As long as that ridge out west stays put.

WX/PT

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the models are a close  miss for a big storm but every model has H5 really different than 12z in a favorable way.

The only model I'm looking at that hasn't jumped way west with the storm is the GEFS. And the GEFS did jump the opposite way, to the east, but not really that much. We know the models will shift around some more and we know from extremely recent history that the first models to lock in the correct track will be the European and the Canadian models.

WX/PT

18 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Been looking much better past couple cycles. Really digging here 

Is this is going to develop and come up the coast the GFS will be the last to show it, the Euro or CMC probably the first.

WX/PT

And now this is coming back. Just because the models drop a storm for a day or two doesn't mean they're not going to come back. The mistake was progressing the western ridge eastward too quickly.

WX/PT

I have a feeling we might be getting a little more precipitation than we're expecting or planning on from this relatively weak coastal low later today (not much later) into Tuesday and it will probably fall in a variety of precip-types.

WX/PT

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

temps look good to you or marginal?

On the maps that came out this afternoon it was mostly good. The European was marginal at the peak of the storm, GFS good. But it's way too early to draw any conclusions.

WX/PT

Looking just about perfect. The biggest risk is that this is so far in advance of the time-frame, too much can happen to mess it up. We know these maps are going to change though we might not want them to. 

WX/PT

5 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Are you the same PT from the January 1996 blizzard? If so, a pleasure to see you post on this board. That was the first true storm of Internet era.

Yes I am. 

WX/PT

This may end up looking like the Euro.

WX/PT

I'm loving the Feb 13-14 potential. There is great antecedent cold HP we just need to lock it in and it's very close to happening. It would not take a big shift to bury many locations along and even east of I-95.

WX/PT

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Are you worried about subsidence on the NW fringe of precip shield? (I.E. Orange, Rockland, Passaic, Bergen)? I know many times the models underestimate the subsidence on the NW fringe. IMO we are going to see subsidence issues on the west side of the heavy banding but I’ll defer to you

Yes I am. That's why amounts are so much less northwest of NYC.

WX/PT

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

the euro does not  have the credibility it once had..it is just as erratic as the other models..

I wouldn't quite agree. There is more variability in all the models however the Euro had consistently indicated this storm would affect us while other models most notably the GFS did not. On one run the NAM was a complete miss. The fact that one location may get 6" instead of 9" or 11" doesn't make the model erratic. It's consistently shown the track close enough with the precipitation to be consistently affecting the same areas to a slightly greater/lesser degree. I'll take it. An accurate forecast can be made by it. The GFS? No. Add to that the fact that with a storm like this on the western side amounts drop off sharply. You got to take that into account. It's not the model, it's the nature of this kind of a storm.

WX/PT

My morning update. I may need to lower southern New Jersey amounts pending 18Z and 00Z runs and observations/radar. Yes it's going to move to 100 miles e-se of Cape Cod per latest Euro. Moving into nowcasting mode. 

WX/PT

For the NYC Metro Region, the National Weather Service has upgraded our Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning valid through Saturday. It will snow off and on all day today leaving a dusting to an inch of snow in spots as an arctic front passes southeastward across the region squeezing out the moisture in the atmosphere. Behind that front brutally cold north northeasterly winds will increase driving temperatures downward into the upper teens and lower 20s tonight. Meanwhile our storm is taking shape off the Florida coast as I write. It will move northward to offshore of the Carolinas tonight and from there northeastward to near Cape Cod by tomorrow afternoon. The main event gets underway tonight between 7-10PM as snow will overspread our area from south to north. It will be light at first but heavier snow bands will move into the region during the early morning hours Saturday dropping 1-2"/hour over the city and western LI and 2-4"/hour over Suffolk County where a Blizzard Warning is in effect. Winds will gust to near 60MPH during the storm causing white-outs and near blizzard conditions with blowing and drifting of snow and near zero visibilities especially over eastern LI and southeastern Ct. Thundersnow possible. Snow should taper off and end around 3-5PM Saturday. Amounts expected--NW New Jersey 3-6", Just NW of NYC and interior southern NJ including Rockland and Westchester oounties 4-8", NYC five boroughs 7-11", Western LI/Nassau western coastal CT 8-14", Southern Coastal New Jersey and western Suffolk Cty 12-18", The Twin Forks/East End of LI and Southeastern Ct 16-22". If you're thinking of escaping to Boston 18-24" there. Stay Safe!!