Wxoutlooksblog

8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

In this case most of us want it to tuck, theres no cold air supply so we are dependent on the storm and the CCB band smashing the area. The more tucked runs seem to actually be snowier. Too far west obviously would be a problem but right now we need a bit of a west shift on the globals.  

I would not entirely agree that there's no cold air supply. The cold is not extreme and it is marginal but to say there's no cold air supply is wrong. There is a HP system wrapped around the Norlun signature trough and that HP is marginally cold enough. In addition, if the low is as tucked as NAM shows you'll see a period of east southeasterly winds off of the relatively warm ocean causing temperatures to rise into the 40s. If you get that and then dynamic cooling you're not going to cool enough in the NYC Metro to see accumulating snow until it's too late, maybe not even then.

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There are some patterns in which the NAM performs better and some when it's performance is horrible. It's been pretty bad lately more towards the bottom of it's performance levels.

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If what the NAM shows tonight were the final track most of the NYC Metro Region would see little if any snow. Maybe a period of rain/sleet/snow mix at the start and then just heavy rain. The low hasn't even begun to bomb out as the European has repeatedly indicated it would and it's tucked into the NJ coastline. Not good. But the NAM's accuracy range is about 6 hours and we are a long ways off from that.

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I would much rather see the Euro where it is at this point than closer in. Anything too close probably ends up tracking right over us or to our west and all rain. The current track and energy transfer is perfect to me at this range for evolving into a mid March frozen precip event.

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26 minutes ago, psv88 said:

48 and sunshine. Ready for spring. 

Still a couple of significant wintry weather threats IMO including next weekend. I think consistently spring type temperatures 50s/60s are still at least two-three weeks away. We'll get a day or two here and there in between bouts of cold in the meantime.

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS says game over for winter. The so called favorable period is gone. 

Why? 

The massive north of Hudson ridge links with southern ridge and creates a pseudo omega high pattern. 

The problem is the blocking north is so powerful that it overwhelms the pattern and it's placed too far south. We saw that in December too 

So yeah if the GFS is correct then better luck next season and we can wrap things up. 

I don't know why you'd say that so certainly. There's plenty of cold air still and as we know, the maps more than seven days out are rarely correct. While the later it gets the chances of significant wintry weather decrease there have been major winter storms into April and as long as there's cold air around, there'a a chance.

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Some of what appear to be snow bands just about now moving into upper Manhattan appear to be increasing in areal coverage and intensity. The next 2-3 hours could feature 1-2"/hour snowfall rates at times leaving some locations with up to 6" or possibly even a bit more. I'm thinking North Shore LI, Coastal Ct. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not much south of I-78 either. Way too warm. 

I think I'll be lucky to see an inch.

Here in eastern Queens on the north shore I'm not expecting much more than an inch or two if that.

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I think some folks on LI who may be expecting 3-5" may get disappointed. It's just not cold enough and there's not enough vertical velocity with most of it being offshore or to our north and west. The s-se wind doesn't help either. This air can only cool so much and in order to pile up you need maximum intensity which I don't think is going to last long enough or steadily enough.

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I think wet snow as this second low center moves away is a stretch but not impossible. I'm very skeptical. Anyway, beyond this it's just warmer and warmer and warmer. We'll probably hit 70 sometime this month.

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50 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep. And think about what a thread the needle it would be if next weekend somehow works out. This week is going to a blowtorch, and the following week is going to be a blowtorch. It would take incredibly great luck to get a snow event in between 2 extremely warm weeks, during a minor very brief cooldown. Our very brief cooldown next weekend will have high temps in the 40s, not impressive at all. It would take a storm taking a perfect track and a strong enough storm to pull in cold air to get accumulating snow near the coast. Extremely unlikely. 

I don't hold the blowtorch of this week against the event next Saturday. We've had a number of snowstorms which followed warm-ups even to 60 or 70 degrees (in late Feb or March). The problem is the likelihood of a relatively poorly organized storm system and lack of really cold air available at the time of the event.

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40 minutes ago, eduggs said:

12z GEFS actually looks pretty good to me for Sat. It's the most threatening run in a while for wintry weather somewhere along the east coast. Red flags for sure, but it's hard to dismiss completely at this non-fantasy range.

I think it would be quite difficult for coastal areas to get accumulating snow out of this no less any snow at all. Temperatures probably in the upper 30s at best.

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4 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

by default i should hate winter as a skateboarder, but a lot of people somehow neglect the beauty that this season brings. makes me kinda sad to hear how much people dislike it, there's literally nothing like the peace and serenity that a snowstorm brings. people are too caught up in their little world of social media and screen time to just sit outside and listen to the amazing silence during a snowstorm. not to get too deep into it but my mother unexpectedly passed in december at way too young of an age. from my early childhood she always instilled the beauty of what nature brings, especially with snow. thats why im so hellbent on us actually getting a storm this winter. funny enough it drove me to this forum which has become one of my fav things to read throughout the day. 

anyway. yes, nation full of couch potato morons. agree

My condolences on your mom's unexpected passing. 

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18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Not this first colder airmass that one will be going down to Texas first.  The real arctic airmass is the one that comes at the end of the week correct?  The first one is just average cold.

 

I don't even consider the first one cold. The discussion previous was primarily about later in the week/weekend. I guess if I'm not pinpoint specific you're going to assume I'm making an incorrect comment. 2-3 posts above mine nobody but you are even mentioning the airmass for Tues-Thurs and by my words it is clear what I'm talking about.

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22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if the big time cold shot the models show for early Feb will verify. GFS gives us subzero readings actually

You may think it's crazy but it happened in Feb 2016 after a ridiculously warm December. 

There's a reasonable chance it ends up colder than forecast just because of the cold air's origins and it's track into the lower 48. It's not dumping south then coming east it's coming down across the upper Great Lakes and Ontario and the winds will blow right down the Hudson Valley which often brings us our coldest temperatures here in NYC.

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Unfortunately the new NAM totally agrees with it. All rain for the city, overrunning goes way north and nails SNE/upstate NY.

Nam has been awful. I think the verdict is still out but it continues to be very difficult to get accumulating snow at Central Park. And anything frozen that falls would be over quickly not lasting more than 45 minutes if that. Models could look still different by tomorrow.

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is cutter after cutter….

At 216 hours not necessarily. As shown now, yes. But let's see what future runs show.

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I'm beginning to re-consider my earlier assessment of Central Park not getting their first measurable snow on Wednesday. The models do look a bit colder this evening and I think they have a good shot at it.

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If that’s the case it’s onto February, record broken lol

I think there may be a clipper around the 28th and one more storm to end the month probably at least mostly rain.

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I don't think NYC's Central Park, will see measurable on Wednesday. I suspect it will be 45 minutes to an hour of sleet with a few big wet flakes mixed in then all rain. Same for locations on Long Island. The HP to the north is moving out quickly. 

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38 minutes ago, eduggs said:

0z NAM still sending a surface reflection to WPA. Too much easterly wind component as a result and it takes too long for the primary to completely fill and winds to shift to the NE. No meaningful change. Maybe a few hours of snow or mix City N & W, but primarily rain outside the mountains.

The event is also shaping up to be a little dryer and quicker than indicated a day or two ago.

I would not take the NAM verbatim but I think it is a little colder/drier and has the NYC Metro region closer to a mix/rain line both at the beginning of the precip and late Sunday night. We'll have to wait and see if this is anything other than just a cold rain but I'm still skeptical about any significant or measurable snow out of this.

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39 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We'd need a radically different upper level setup to lock in high surface pressure. Trof axis is also way too far west. Really not so different than several other rain storms we've had this winter.

Generally I'd agree but sometimes you get a few last minute changes in the upper levels. Let me be clear, I do not think this is going to happen.

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Another thought if the high pressure to the north were to get locked in and a coastal did not develop or developed late we could end up with an ice storm.

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If there was a chance with any of this series of storm systems (yesterday, 22-23, 25-26) I would have said 25-26 would be our best chance because of the high pressure to the north. But look how quickly it disappears. Now if it holds in place much longer, different story.  But we would also have to get a coastal to develop quickly to lock the cold air in at lower levels and it would have to develop in exactly the right spot offshore.  It's a tall order at this point IMO.

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I have difficulty seeing any measurable snowfall in Central Park Wednesday at this point. Winds will likely be blowing out of the e-se with surface temperatures around 37/38 to start the event. We may see a mix of rain sleet and snow for 30-45 minutes, I doubt it amounts to anything.

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