Wxoutlooksblog

10 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

This is insanity lol

It's not. The models do not typically trend in one direction in "all together now" fashion and then it's over. They do go back and forth. This is how it is every major winter storm or most. One model run from one model two days before the storm is not a clincher or "cancels" the storm. There will be more changes on all of the models tomorrow. 

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Ok at 72 hours it is a tad bit east of where it was last run. But it's not by that much and certainly within the realm of possibility that this ticks back west towards the coast tomorrow.

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Euro is already more tucked.

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5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Precip field would be further west with a low in that spot that strong 

I totally agree with this. At least in most cases.

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Trend is bad

If the storm doesn't capture near us then the storm will go more east. 

There is no trend. You had about 4 consecutive maybe 5 consecutive runs of 20"+ snows in NYC, now one run of the Euro giving 6-10" still a very big snowfall by NYC standards. This can easily switch back. When you're comparing the Euro to the GFS you're comparing apples to oranges not apples to apples. There is no trend established yet and these models are not interacting with each other.

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3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It depends where you live. N and W of NYC gets nowhere near that on this run. 

The kicker is not going to allow this system to jackpot for inland areas north and west of NYC. It's also preventing the coast from going over to rain. 

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4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

The euro still crushed coastal areas li an NYC.  

There is nothing here to weep about tonight. If you live north and west of NYC the chances are high that you'll get less snow. This storm will be the most for the coast.

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2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Not great trends tonight to be honest. Lets see what tomorrow brings.

On the Euro you have a 970 or so mb low over Martha's Vineyard the chances are it's been snowing for 18 hours here at times heavily. This is not bad at all. The only problem I detect has been there all along. It's the western upper Great Lakes system which is to some extent acting as a kicker. But this run was in my book excellent. The storm's still there. It didn't swing east like the GFS.

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A bomb over Cape Cod-just about Martha's Vineyard at 96 hours. Most of us here in the NYC Metro Region should have just barely gotten into the heaviest snowfall if this right. It should be ending early Saturday night. West and northwest of NYC less snow should fall. It's a little faster moving but no major changes.

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Euro differences tonight mainly noise. At 72 hours it's a hair east southeast of last run and slightly weaker system but it's really insignificant in the scope of things. It's still in a good spot and likely to bomb out.

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10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The ukie is brutal. 

It reverts back to before the models slowed this storm down yesterday. The old pattern and she takes off like a rocket. A relatively shorter period of snow with significantly lower amounts and western sections barely get anything.

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13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Ugly GFS run. 

As I said last night the GFS is stubborn with these solutions. The other models will jump around a bit more. All we need for a snow forecast here is for the European model to hold where it is. If we see the European model start trending further out to the east our big snowstorm is in trouble.

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16 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

question and I apologize in advance = when is the NAM in range ? How many hours before the event are we there yet 

NAM is in range at 6-18 hours. We have a couple of days yet prior to then. Explaining this. There are certain patterns in which NAM does very well out to 48-60 hours. I do not think we're in one of those patterns. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Nam is not leaving that much energy so far

Nam is worthless until you're within 60 hours really. Even then, take it with a grain of salt.

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For the NYC Metro Region for now though I'm not yet mentioning exact amounts in my official forecast, if the European model track holds and other models trend towards it I'm thinking of this as a 12-18" storm for NYC & points north/east/southern NJ, etc. Less as you go north and west. But if the track is a hair further to the left, you could bump this up another 6". If the track is a hair to the right you could bump this down 6-8". If the track becomes too tucked in, then you go 5-10" with mixing or temporary changeover issues. Again, not going official with these numbers yet. While an outlier, there is a history of these kinds of storms in this kind of winter slipping altogether out to our south and east leaving us high and dry and that possibility is still IMO not out of the question.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Someone is going to cook under a band of 3-5" per hour with these dynamics. Probably going to be a screw zone just West of where that sets up. 

The wind is also going to be factor, limiting ratios.

Potentially blizzard conditions someplace. Maybe here.

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It's a slow long duration storm

I think that's still a little uncertain. Certainly forward movement has slowed on all of the models. I'm just a little concerned because it's still early. The tick further left with the track and we're looking at an even bigger more intense storm. Given the bombogenesis and the current track, the intensity of the snow could be amazing....we'd be talking 1-3"/hour rates. We'll see what happens in the next 2-3 run cycles.

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Euro looks like about 12-18" snow. I do not have precip maps but given that track, it's a historic storm for coastal sections.

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This looks pretty good to me. Unless it were to turn due east or e-ne from here this would be a big hit for coastal sections. It's a hair to the left of last night's run.

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1 minute ago, Blizzardo said:

Because the benchmark is too far east for NYC. We need it tucked inside to get burried!

You also need it tucked inside to get rain over coastal sections.

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I continue to be impressed with how the forward movement of the storm is slowing down on all of the models. We've gone from Saturday evening in the Gulf of Maine to Saturday evening just e of Cape Cod. This is a big improvement and changes this from potentially a 12 hour event to potentially a 17 or 18 hour event. The GFS is trending towards the ECMWF. Do not be surprised if the 18Z run changes back a hair. The most important thing now is that the Euro is consistent with itself. If we can hold the Euro, improve on the CMC and the UKMET the GFS will eventually come around fully. 

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1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

The fact that the Euro didn't even gesture towards a more eastern solution is comforting. Now we need to get the GFS and CMC back on board tomorrow.

Good luck with that. Sometimes it takes a few run cycles. GFS is notoriously erratic and CMC likes to stick to its guns.

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It is correct that this becomes a longer event. It's still moving fast but the Euro gave it another 4-6 hours on tonight's run. There's a little bit of confluence out ahead of it which is helping. The kicker low approaching the western upper Great Lakes is helping this to not come too close to us. Tomorrow and Wednesday we'll begin to find out where we're going with this event.

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If this happens, it could be historic.

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Euro looks really good.  

Through 96 compared to last run deeper trough but storm is just a hair ne of where it was, just noise really.

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