FallsLake

Yeah, we have one more opportunity for things to swing better (+PNA) by the end of the month. But I'm with you, the odds are not good at this point.

Many years back my Dad was stationed there. From his stories, you will see snow and cold.

Most definitely. I'm almost expecting to see the 7/8 day disappear and another day 10/11 show up; keeping us hooked. But at least we have a little bit of hope.

Lol..lets hope. I am keeping an eye on the day 7/8 time period. Maybe we can get something wintery.

Well that's it, Punxsutawney Phil just said it's going to be an early spring.

If it's right spring is here. Doesn't get bellow freezing in the SE through mid month, and it wouldn't look good afterwards. FV3 is better. It still has the day 8/9 storm. Lets hope it is right.

Hour 432 on the CFS is looking good :

Good...that may bring the snow. If you had ordered a snow shovel we would have been doomed.

Great game! I would love to see Brady win one more.

I keep saying this, but you guys are due. I actually think this is the perfect "forecasted" pattern to give coastal areas snow. Strong blocking with strong highs that can suppress the storm track way south. Then when something does pop, you guys snow. **also if it gets cold enough, it would be cool to see bay effect snow again.

Yeah, the upstate of SC up to your location have had bad luck the last couple of years. There's been numerous storms where you're suppose to get a big storm and it doesn't pan out. That's probably worse then the folks farther east that were never in the game to get anything.

I have no complaints, but there are folks in SE NC, SC ,and Ga that are in a long snow drought (maybe half the board??). I would love to see at least one deep south and coastal snow storm; even if I got shutout. It seems like its been ages since the last one.

Take a look at the latest FV3. But you might be a little too far north...

With the pattern change and with so much cold air moving into the US, I think we can only use the models out to about day 9. We're seeing big swings in the later days with each model run. The one big constant is the availability of cold air. It still may be early February until something pops, especially if we get unlucky with the day 10-16 period. But the euro weeklies and many mets think the rest of winter is going to be on the cold side. I think we're looking good. On a side note; many have posted what they would consider a good (A score) winter. I have four things: 1) Significant snow event (Check----already had the 12" in December) 2) Significant arctic outbreak, with at least a couple of sunny days with highs below freezing (looks like that is coming) 3) Significant winter event, which can be a mixed bad but has to limit driving, etc. (waiting) 4) Small winter event, which can be mixed bag but is picture worthy (waiting)

I think the thread and timing was fine. It'll still be an event for some of the folks on this board (NW NC / S. VA). Also we can't win them all; meaning we'll track storms and lose them. Winter can still make a come back. We've had at least a few fab Februarys.

At least I'll sleep better tonight; not waking up to check the 0z model runs.

Lol...I'm not giving up hope but we really needed todays models to trend better. Maybe (just maybe) we get lucky with the Mondays event.

I was told this is where the party is....

If things go like planned, this year will be a reversal of last; whereas we have a back load winter. Remember last February heat wave.

Happy New Years everybody! Lets hope we can score two or three good winter storms for most on the board.

Don't give up yet. As long as we flip to a favorable pattern by the end of January, we have a (good) chance. There were a few folks that predicted a back-loaded winter. Lets see if they end up being correct. **Wouldn't it be terrible if we didn't flip to a cold pattern and ended up with a repeat of last February.

If all that cold verifies for January (meaning some good blocking), there'll be some suppressed storm tracks.

It seems that when the p-type was snow and it was below freezing (making close to 10:1) it was actually very close. Some of those huge outputs (over 2" in the piedmont) was more tied to the higher QPF that was originally being forecasted.

You live in a good "zone". I remember you did well last year in that early January storm; whereas I got about an inch. Then we both did well in the late January storm. Folks south and east of Raleigh have missed out the last few years. I feel (in my bones) that's going to change this year; a coastal plain blizzard is in order.

It is amazing how that line sets up. I've been really lucky the last few years where I've been just north and west enough to get in on the good snow totals. In past years I've noticed that things even out somewhat with those "eastern storms" -- Fayetteville NE to Rock Mount. With those storms eastern parts of the Triangle do very well. I've seen it snowing hard just east of Wake Forest but nothing at my house. I think we're due for another one of those storms. And as other have said, I would gladly give up snow to see you guys score.