FallsLake

Yeah it's stepping towards the FV3; which is showing a significant winter storm at the same period (day 7) then something else a couple days afterwards. I sill refuse to get drawn in; but if we can get more model support and get this to day 5, maybe....

Well the 12z FV3 has the Tuesday storm again. Minor to significant ice event across the Piedmont sections of NC, VA, and north parts of the up state. That's only 7 days out. In years past, we would start getting excited about the possibility. Honestly I expect the model to lose it at 18z. Plus there isn't other model agreement as well.

Nothing looks good on the models for a widespread SE winter storm. Yeah, maybe some CAD areas score a little ice but nothing big is showing right now. Only positive thing, is it's looking like we don't torch like we did last year. The GFS from a couple of days back showed this possibility.

Most definitely. I'm almost expecting to see the 7/8 day disappear and another day 10/11 show up; keeping us hooked. But at least we have a little bit of hope.

Lol..lets hope. I am keeping an eye on the day 7/8 time period. Maybe we can get something wintery.

Well that's it, Punxsutawney Phil just said it's going to be an early spring.

The 6z GFS and FV3 both show some ice/snow for central NC northwards on days 7/8. At this point I wouldn't get excited. We still need more model agreement, get closer to the event, and wrap out heads around the idea of getting a storm where it rains first then changes over to wintery precip; which we know is difficult.

If it's right spring is here. Doesn't get bellow freezing in the SE through mid month, and it wouldn't look good afterwards. FV3 is better. It still has the day 8/9 storm. Lets hope it is right.

As olaf posted above there is a fantasy winter storm at day 10. But we've been burned so much this year with day 10 storms nobody is taking it seriously. Maybe if it's still showing Saturday and Sunday we might start beating the drum; but even then only if other models support it.

Hour 432 on the CFS is looking good :

I think you can add the mountains into the factor. 10+ degrees colder on the west side. As stated before, the mountain can help us with CAD or hurt us by impeding cold dense air over the mountains.

The FV3 shows chances of wintery precip at and past day 10. But we've seen that story many times already...

You really want to break areas into zones with similar weather. One big reason the Tennessee Valley folks broke away from the SE was because of the different weather mechanisms that cause weather on this side of the mountains. CAD is a major component to most our winter storms; but not for the folks west of the mountains. On the other hand you can get good snow in Tennessee with arctic frontal passages, but not too much for us. So in short, You could create a CAD sub-forum (not Carolinas); but the biggest obstacle is the fact that most major population areas fall in the CAD zone. **so most folks would just post there anyways..

As discussed earlier, we need more folks from that region to join. Or we could at least do what the MA folks do and create more sub-region threads. We have one for the mountains we should create one that covers southern/middle Miss/Alabama and Florida. I could see folks there talking about hard freeze potentials and not focused too much on snow; as most current posters do.

We're just too close to the event. How much more shifts can the models do this close to the event. If we were 4/5 days out we could be more excited. **unless the models really don't have a clue....

So at hr48 the NAM is slightly more west and a little stronger, but still has most precip off the coast. Not sure how much more shifts west we can get.. ^^just saw ajr's post. If we got heavy enough rates it could work.

looks like the 12z NAM is trying to follow the RGEM; at least at hr 39.

At hr 72 it's bombing off the coast, but the precip shield is not as expansive as you would expect.

Just saw that. Still thinking this wont do anything but interesting to see how it evolves.

Well the FV3 looks interesting for next weekend. Wont get into details except it does show a low off the SE coast and there id a nice cold 1040 high sitting over Chicago.

Going back and looking at the Tennessee Valley Banner, they cover northern Miss and Alabama; which they should. We need to update ours to state the southern areas; or I really think another forum could be create that covers areas from Louisiana, middle and southern Miss/Alabama, and Florida. Maybe even include southern Ga.

Do we have any folks left from Alabama or Mississippi? Our banner states we cover those areas. Seems like we're only S. VA, NC, SC and Ga folks. **It looks like the frontal passage snows will definitely hit those areas.

It's a little stronger but not much. Looks like the eastern trough is holding back some allowing the storm to turn more northward. Edit: and comparing the RGEM to the NAM at 48 hours you can see it digging a little more to the west near La.

For what it's worth, the 12 NAM did shift considerably west with the coastal storm. Still not enough to get much precip inland but it was a big shift. Just another small shift westward and a little stronger storm and we would be in business.

From RAH : The next chance of any precipitation will arrive on Tuesday, in association with the re-newed strong height falls accompanying the negatively-tilted trough and attendant Arctic cold front that will move through the area late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Models have trended faster, more progressive with this system, sweeping it well out into the Atlantic waters Tuesday night. Given the faster, more progressive timing with this system, the potential of seeing any significant accumulations from a rain to snow change-over, before the precipitation ends is becoming less and less.