Sydney Claridge

The area on the Denton/Collin county line may wait to mature until it reaches less-populated areas east of US-75, outside of explosive intensification (as mentioned previously). But even then, Collin County east of US-75 has been growing rapidly, so there are still highly populated residential areas on that side of the county these days. SE Tarrant County would be more of a concern, but high clouds have prevented satellites from seeing the status of the cumulus field down there so radar returns and on-the-ground observations are the best way to monitor storm development there.

Some light radar returns seem evident around Little Elm and western Frisco. This might be the next storm to form. The dryline looks to extend from Denton to Trophy Club down through Hurst and Alvarado. I would not put Collin or Dallas counties in the clear just yet, especially Collin County, depending on what happens in the Frisco area.

If that area in southern Denton County turns into a supercell soon it could spell big trouble for Collin County based on what is occurring with the activity in southern Oklahoma. So far everything seems fine, but it would not take long for things to change. A WFAA meteorologist mentioned that area (southern Denton County) for potential development.

And hopefully it does hold. As I mentioned, those temperatures in central/eastern Tarrant and southernmost Denton counties do have me concerned about the cap breaking. There are mid-80s temperatures just ahead of the dryline, and temperatures behind the dryline are in the upper-80s to around 90.

Those are generally personal weather stations (from Wundermap), but when I see a whole bunch of those averaging around a certain temperature I pretty much take it as fact. I would keep an eye on southern Denton County right now, there seems to be agitated cumulus around 114 and I-35W (from satellite imagery) that looks like it could try to turn into a storm.

Not sure what the convective temperature is, but those mid-to-upper 80s temperature observations I am seeing in western Tarrant County (some of which may be behind the dryline now) are concerning me. Maybe not for my location but for points to the east, should an updraft get going and then sustain itself.

I'm fairly confident at this point that I am not going to get severe weather at my location in west Fort Worth (just west of I-35W), unless something explosively develops in the next 30 minutes or so. The dryline is very close and should pass over my location soon. Dallas County, Collin County, and points east might not be so lucky though, if this cap breaks.

Excellent news for the Metroplex if that solution verifies. Some of the temperatures in western Tarrant County continue to rise and are still ahead of the dryline (I believe the dryline is near or just west of the Tarrant/Parker county line).

To be honest, if a tornado had to hit a residential area, I would rather it happen in a wealthy area like the Park Cities or Southlake given the COVID-19 situation and all. It would be very costly for the insurance companies (like 10/20/19 was), but people with more resources would be less of a risk for spreading the virus in the aftermath of such a tornado and could more easily recover from the aftermath.

Not to mention at least some of the model runs suggested that initial activity would be focused on the northern Metroplex. There is a greater population in DFW north of I-30 than south of I-30, generally. Some of the surface observations I am seeing in eastern Parker and western Tarrant counties have temperatures in the lower-to-mid 80s. The big question is how much that cap can take before breaking.

For a moment it looked as if the intensity of those cumulus clouds west of DFW reduced in intensity, but it seems like the intensity is increasing again based on satellite imagery. I can also see what is likely agitated cumulus (with my own eyes) just to my west. If initiation occurs in the next hour or so it should be focused in eastern Parker, western Tarrant, southern Wise, and southwest Denton counties.

Those high clouds have moved out of the way and I now have full sunshine at my location in west Fort Worth. The HRRR runs have predicted that potential supercell development could occur on the north side of those high clouds, likely out of that area of clouds that I highlighted in my last post.

Monitoring this area out by Mineral Wells for potential convective initiation that could affect the DFW area.

Definitely some agitated cumulus visible in the satellite imagery extending south of Wichita Falls. If that extends under those high clouds (which it likely does) then this will be the area to watch for storm initiation that may affect the DFW Metroplex.

Convective initiation has now started in southwestern Oklahoma, west of Lawton. And the brightening skies trend continues in west Fort Worth; I am now getting filtered sunshine on and off. I'm assuming that the sunshine is filtered due to high-level clouds visible on satellite imagery. SPC now says that a tornado watch is likely for N TX into S OK (see MD text in prior post). EDIT: filtered sunshine became more consistent within the last few minutes. I can now see blue skies off to the northwest; the clearing is now starting to affect the western portions of the DFW area.

Still socked in with clouds in west Fort Worth, but the skies seem a little brighter compared to an hour ago. Temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s as well.

The CAPE values should be quite high whenever storms do develop. 100-200 m2/s2 of SRH (that model is saying roughly the same for 0-1km and 0-3km SRH) should be sufficient for potentially tornadic storms with the high CAPE present. Not necessarily. People still have homes and are occupying them. Not everyone has a garage (or sufficient space) to place all of their cars inside or under cover. Unoccupied businesses still have value. A big hailstorm over DFW will be an insurance nightmare no matter where it hits in the metro. There will be fewer people outside who could get injured (which is the bright side here), but insofar as monetary damages are concerned there would be little difference in my opinion.

I meant to say dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 60s and edited my post accordingly. A couple spots in central Texas (behind that area of developing storms) are reporting dewpoints around 70. Provided that convective initiation occurs, I do not think storms will have any trouble turning severe with up to 4,000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 5,000 J/kg of SBCAPE modeled (although these high CAPE values are dependent on dews in the lower 70s). A major hailstorm near or over DFW is a definite possibility this afternoon, and potentially a tornado or two (perhaps strong) as well. Hopefully this does not happen. There should be lower helicity along the dryline (compared to areas to the east) but there will be much higher CAPE. I'm still socked in with clouds here in west Fort Worth at the current moment, but there does seem to be an area of clearing to the west just ahead of the dryline (precisely where the higher CAPE currently is). As this area of clearing moves east I fully expect things to destabilize in DFW pretty quickly. SPC Mesoanalysis forecast data (from the RAP) has the clearing arriving in DFW within the next two hours.

There are already dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 60s on the northwestern side of where these storms are expected to form. I doubt they will have that much of an effect for later on, although I guess sinking air could suppress storm development behind them (Steve McCauley was referring to this possibility if morning storms formed over DFW, which has not happened). We will probably get a separate watch later on.

The solution on the 18z NAM3k seems to hint at the possibility of a localized outbreak in/near DFW; I definitely do not want to see that solution verify. The earlier 12z run pops the storms further east, though. The 18z HRRR solution fails to initiate convection over DFW/North Texas in the afternoon, but could spell trouble up near Oklahoma City with storms firing on the triple point. EDIT: That trend towards afternoon storms is concerning to say the least. We will have to see how the observations play out tomorrow.

What is interesting about DFW-area tornado history seems to be that several of our worst outbreaks in recent memory have occurred on more conditional days that are not a moderate or high risk. Seeing something like a 10% hatched risk over DFW, as such, definitely gets my attention. December 26, 2015 was only an enhanced risk day (10%, not hatched), and the October 20, 2019 tornadoes occurred largely within a slight risk (there was an ENH further northeast). The April 3, 2012 tornado outbreak occurred near and within an enhanced-equivalent (10%, not hatched, considered a slight risk at the time) tornado risk, but an outflow boundary helped to back the winds that day. I believe that our last high risk was back in April 2007, and it largely busted. I am in no way saying that tomorrow will be like 12/26/15, 10/20/19, or 4/3/12. But there is the low probability that such an outcome could occur; there have also been hatched risk days that have failed to produce tornadoes (or failed to verify at that risk level, such as what happened to the MDT for tornadoes in the southeast on 4/19/20). Any conditional tornado event can produce tornadoes, but the risk is fortunately conditional. Several of the worst DFW tornadoes in recent memory have occurred on otherwise-conditional days, however, and mesoscale factors were largely to blame (as on 4/3/12 and I believe on 10/20/19 as well). Of course, we could see a downgrade or upgrade for Day 1 as the risk becomes more clear in the hours to come.

I guess there could be some northwest flow events in the Southern Plains even if we wind up with that pattern, provided there is enough moisture available to fuel severe thunderstorms. There was northwest flow severe earlier this month in the Midwest and Great Lakes states, even though northwest flow is not normally favorable for severe thunderstorms there until the summer. Northwest flow is not the most ideal for tornado activity, but it might at least be something. You would think that with cooler-than-normal water temperatures off the U.S. and Mexican Pacific coasts and warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico that we would be more prone to western troughing and eastern ridging.

15% hatched Day 3 Slight risk for DFW down through central Texas. SPC currently anticipates veer-back-veer wind profiles over the highest risk area, with large hail as the primary risk.

Definitely some good news as this storm approaches the I-59 corridor. But this storm could be cycling and has taken somewhat of a left turn. Could spell trouble for the southernmost parts of Hattiesburg (US-98 corridor) if this storm is only cycling.

As for those cells northwest of Hattiesburg, the one east of New Hebron is probably the one to watch, being by itself and all. I definitely do not want to see those smaller cells over Bassfield and Sumrall go severe, given that they are on track to affect areas hit hard by last Sunday's tornadoes (including Soso). Also keep an eye on that supercell south of Forest, MS. It has a prominent hook but seems to lack strong rotation at this time.