Sydney Claridge

Looks like we got our first severe thunderstorm warning over Odessa, with a risk for 70 mph wind gusts. Dew points are only in the 30s and 40s there, but there is still a little instability present.

Storm on MS/AL border might have “that look” to it.

While well outside of this subforum (this seems to be the main thread for the event), storms are going up over the eastern DFW metroplex, much further west than expected. SPC says they are "high based" in a mesoscale discussion regarding the possibility of issuing a watch for the ArkLaTex. I do wonder what this means in terms of implications for later in the event.

It looks like we have what appears to be an outflow-dominant squall line here.

I wonder if this gold-circle area should be watched for potential supercell development? It looks like there is a break in the line here, or that one segment (northern) has moved ahead of the southern segment.

Damaging 70-80 mph winds coming into the Mustang/Yukon area per News 9 live stream. There is a kink in the line there too, although the News 9 live stream does say it is slightly behind the cool front.

Severe-warned storm coming out of the Breckenridge area needs to be watched for the DFW Metroplex within the next few hours.

Definitely looks like this is the dominant cell right now, with a severe thunderstorm warning.

Looks like there might be some weak rotation on that cell over Altus.

Might as well start a thread for this event. We have a moderate risk, with a 15% hatched tornado probability across central Oklahoma.

And there is now a TOR warning on the MN/WI border SW of Grantsburg.

Part of me feels that SPC went with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch specifically so that they could label it as a Particularly Dangerous Situation for straight-line winds. Tornado probabilities are at the maximum (20%) for a SVR watch, while the SPC outlook has a 10% tornado probability (within 25 miles of a point); normally we would expect a Tornado Watch with a 10% on the outlook, barring some post-outlook "nowcasting" suggesting lower probabilities. Typically I've noticed that 10% contours almost always lead to Tornado Watches, while 5% contours can go in either direction (that is, either a SVR or a TOR watch).

The parameters for significant tornadoes and the Violent Tornado Parameter are both very high over the Twin Cities metro area. These parameters are not everything by themselves, but still, it is not an environment you would want a supercell to form and then go on to produce a significant tornado, especially over a highly populated metropolitan area like MSP.

I’m getting concerned about the path this storm is taking. It’s moving in the direction of the Lansing metro area (especially the SE part). If this storm can hold together, there would be concern for a tornado in a highly-populated area.

And just look at how wrapped up that hook echo is. Looks great on radar, but I sure wouldn’t want to be in the path. EDIT: it now has a PDS tornado warning on it. Large and extremely dangerous tornado in progress, fortunately this is happening in an area with very low population.

Looked like a pretty well-developed rotational signature in NW Sterling County, TX, SE of Forsan:

Looks like a hail core has formed with a left-mover SE of Springtown, TX and is moving in the direction of Azle. Tarrant County may need a severe thunderstorm warning soon if so. The main supercell continues to move SSE towards Weatherford.

It looks like some pretty serious damage occurred to a home in the Northhaven area. Some debris was even lodged into the ground, apparently: https://mobile.twitter.com/HowertonNews/status/1394032811875651595?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet We’ll have to wait for the official survey, but the evidence seems pretty convincing for a brief tornado touchdown. This very spot got hit with the tornado on 10/20/19, so if this were a tornado it would be the second time in less than two years that a tornado hit this spot.

Apparently there was "significant tree damage" at Goar Park in University Park according to NWS storm reports. Also a home got damaged on Northhaven Road across from North Haven Gardens, which was an area hit hard back on October 20, 2019.

That now-severe storm northeast of Denton seemed to blow up out of nowhere. Though very minor right now, radar seems to suggest additional attempts at initiation SW of Decatur.

Storm northeast of Denton (around Pilot Point) might need a warning soon; it seems hail sizes are coming up. Also there seems to be a notch on that storm over Mesquite. Fortunately it seems there is very little rotation however.

Yep, couplet on radar:

New TOR warning includes NE San Antonio metro area and New Braunfels. Seems to be some strong winds in that storm with perhaps some rain-wrapped rotation (though it seems broad). That said, the below screenshot doesn’t really seem to show rotation and seems to be a straight-line wind threat.

What I saw driving home from work had quite a high base; I wonder if this updraft is rooted above the cap?

It’s crazy to see such cold temperatures there so late, although definitely not unprecedented as their April record low is -32F. Climatically speaking, Fairbanks has very little seasonal lag. This means that in Fairbanks, June is warmer than August, and December is colder than February. It looks like temperatures return to normal next week, and that streak of below 40F temperatures will come to an end.