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Everything posted by Sydney Claridge
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Severe Weather 3-31 through 4-3-24
Sydney Claridge replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
The storm between Springtown and Boyd bears watching as it moves into the DFW metro area. The hail intensity on radar seems to be increasing. -
4/1-4/2 severe threat (southern portion of subforum)
Sydney Claridge replied to largetornado's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The High Risk on March 2, 2012 did get into Ohio, with the 15% hatched (and MDT) encompassing the Columbus metro, but the sigtor threat didn't really materialize north of the Ohio River Valley in the state of Ohio. I'm getting flashbacks to that day looking at the model runs and SPC outlook, although SPC currently has the greatest risk for tomorrow outlined northeast of where they had the highest risk on 3/2/12. It looks like this CIPS analog run is showing 3/2/2012 (3/3/2012 at 0z) as the top analog for tomorrow, interestingly enough. -
Severe Weather 3-13 through 3-16-24
Sydney Claridge replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
We have a tornado warning in the Frisco, TX area now. Somewhat broad rotation but it bears close watching; the hail is a huge threat regardless of any tornadic activity, though. -
Severe Weather 3-13 through 3-16-24
Sydney Claridge replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
It’s also pretty interesting to see all of this happening near a radar site, too. The storms over the Kansas City metro also bear watching; the atmosphere there (per SPC Mesoanalysis) also seems primed for potential tornadic activity. Fortunately those storms seem to be behaving themselves (rotation-wise), but I did notice some weak rotation around Shawnee. It’s not really “behaving” though; there’s a hailstorm in the KC metro now. -
Severe Weather 3-13 through 3-16-24
Sydney Claridge replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
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Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations
Sydney Claridge replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
It’s 75 here in Fort Worth today! Absolutely beautiful. Seems like we’re expected to see highs in the 70s through Thursday, with rain (and thunderstorms) returning Friday. -
Severe Threats: Winter 2023-2024
Sydney Claridge replied to Chinook's topic in Central/Western States
Tornado confirmed near Coldspring, TX, per tornado warning text and KHOU livestream. EDIT: spotter-confirmed. -
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I noticed a Flash Flood Warning for east-central Ventura County, issued at 420 PM PDT, that mentioned rockslides and mudslides along California Route 150. Obviously, Hilary's precipitation alone can do this, but shaking saturated ground could trigger slides when they might not otherwise occur.
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The orientation of the coastline in the Sittwe area definitely has me concerned about locally-enhanced storm surge. Mocha's strength and motion, along with the overall orientation of the coastline, are reminding me of Hurricane Ian, although there are great differences in topography (notice the hills and mountains running parallel to the coast). Those lowlands are in big trouble. I've extremely concerned about any humanitarian crisis that will follow Mocha's landfall. EDIT: it looks like I'm not too far off with respect to the highlighted area of concern, at least according to this forecast.
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If at least one of these storms can manage to turn supercellular, I wonder if it could become a concern for the DFW metro?
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Severe Weather 4-25 through 4-28-23
Sydney Claridge replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
Might want to extend this thread into the 28th; we have another severe thunderstorm threat on Friday it seems. (cheese007 made the edits while I was posting this) SPC is mentioning a large hail threat (30% hatched, hence the ENH), along with some tornado potential especially in north TX if storms don't get undercut (currently 5% on the outlook). DFW dodged a bullet yesterday (4/26), so we'll have to see if we can do it again tomorrow (4/28) or if our luck will run out; I know some of the model runs in the run-up to yesterday were showing the activity closer to and over DFW. I always get a little concerned when there's a localized severe storm threat centered on DFW. -
Severe Weather 4-2-23/4-3-23
Sydney Claridge replied to weatherextreme's topic in Central/Western States
Possible rotation trying to form in the Newark and Rhome areas? Seems like the Tarrant/Denton county line needs to be watched very closely just in case. -
Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
Sydney Claridge replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
There's a severe-warned storm along the US 59 corridor NE of Victoria and SW of Houston (near Edna) that looks ready to take advantage of the warm sector. -
January 2nd and 3rd Severe Weather Threat
Sydney Claridge replied to DanLarsen34's topic in Central/Western States
Although (obviously) I expect the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms to be east of DFW, I am starting to wonder about our risk on Monday. We are on the edge of the outlined D4 risk after all, and recent Euro (12z) and GFS (12z; waiting on the 18z) runs suggest the potential for a severe risk around noon; obviously this time frame can change! While morning severe is unusual, after the December 13th tornadoes I'm a little more alert to things like that. -
Also there’s three tornado warnings west of DFW now. I’m in central Fort Worth and I’m starting to wonder about that southernmost cell possibly becoming a problem at my location later this morning; I’m expecting the Palo Pinto (central) cell to pass to my north. EDIT: that rotational signature north of Gorman, on the southernmost cell, is looking quite concerning. EDIT 2: might this be a debris signature on the correlation coefficient? I can’t tell completely, but it wouldn’t surprise me either.
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I suspect that's because they operate on Zulu/UTC time, which does not change for the switch from daylight savings time to standard time (or vice-versa).
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We’ve had some kind of outflow boundary surge across most of Tarrant County now. I’m starting to think our severe potential just dropped. That said, it would be a different story if that boundary can come back northwest after this first round of (non-severe) storms. The boundary is surging southeast right now, so I don’t really foresee it moving back northwest, but I'll be sure to keep an eye on temperatures and dewpoints to see if they start increasing.